What's the snow situation? Plowboy? Looks like it's dumping on the webcam.
This is good.
000
FXUS61 KBTV 100853
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TODAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOWS AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY WANES AND COMES TO AN END BY
THIS COMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SOME 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 353 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LONG-DURATION WINTER STORM CONTINUES
TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY WITH "ROUND TWO" SLUG OF ADDITIONAL PCPN
PUSHING WNW ACROSS VT/NRN NY BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS
ALL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND THEIR TIMING/INTENSITY
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN A RATHER ROBUST REBLOSSOMING OF
CONVECTION ON THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SEEN ON IR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN QUITE TRICKY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WRN VT WHERE THE 925/850 MB 0C ISOTHERM WAFFLES ABOUT MOST
OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER EAST PROFILES WARM CONSIDERABLY
SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL FALL AS EITHER PLAIN RAIN OR A MIX
OF SLEET AND/OR ICE AT MID AND UPPER ELEVATIONS. ACROSS NRN NY
MAINLY ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY SURGE OF
STEADIER PCPN OCCURS ACROSS ERN COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FURTHER WEST.
GIVEN EXPECTED P-TYPE...PCPN AMTS AND TIMING HAVE OPTED FOR
SEVERAL HEADLINE CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRSTLY...ALL WINTER
HEADLINES WILL BE EXTENDED TO 11 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER END TIME
OF STEADIER PCPN THIS EVENING. SECONDLY...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS OUR FAR ERN VT
COUNTIES WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PL/FZRA ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE MINOR IN THE WARMER AIR. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM 1-4 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN VT AND THE SLV TODAY...WITH
HIGHER AMTS OF 4-7 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS WITH BEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING TOWARD LATER IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION...GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BY THIS EVENING SECONDARY SURGE OF
PCPN CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM
CENTRAL VT WEST. THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN TRICKY...BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS NOW SHOWING A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE PROFILE THROUGH
TIME SUCH THAT WE COULD END UP SEEING A SIMILAR SITUATION OF A
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF FAR EASTERN VT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
GIVEN CURRENT POWER OUTAGES AND LOAD STRESSES OF HEAVIER/WET SNOW
ON AREA TREES/POWER LINES. WHILE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS ONLY MODEST
FOR THIS OCCURRING IN VT...ADDL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES OUTSIDE AREAS RIGHT ALONG LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. BY LATER TONIGHT STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN CONTINUES TO
PUSH WEST AND WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION/SLV. SOME ADDL VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL
POSSIBLE BUT INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESSENING CONSIDERABLY. LOWS
REMAIN UNIFORM...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
DUMBBELL/ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NEW ENGLAND...ESSENTIALLY GOING
NOWHERE WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WHILE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS PROFILES
ALOFT GRADUALLY COOL AS WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BECOME
SEPARATED FROM THE INNER CIRCULATION. THUS CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW/SHSN STILL A GOOD BET WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME BRIEF MIX WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING MAX HEATING IN
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. IN FACT...AS CENTRAL OF LOW TRENDS SLIGHTLY
EAST OVER TIME...MID LEVEL FLOW TRENDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AND
BLOCKED SO SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DO QUITE
WELL ON ADDL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SOMETHING THE RESORTS SHOULD
BE QUITE HAPPY WITH. TEMPERATURES AGAIN REALLY GOING NOWHERE WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 25 TO 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ON FRIDAY LATE EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER VERMONT AND WILL
BE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH MOVING INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE 700MB AND
500MB FLOW ORIENTED NORTH TO NORTH NORTHWEST THERE WILL BE
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS SO I KEPT IN CHANCE
WORDING OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS. RIGHT NOW BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF MODELED QPF WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 1-3 INCHES OVER
THE GREENS WITH 1-2 OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH. BY
SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DRIFTED FAR ENOUGH OFF CAPE
COD THAT CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE WEAK. IF
ANYTHING THERE MAY STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE SPINE OF THE GREENS BUT THATS A SMALL CHANCE RIGHT NOW.
A foot of wet dense base snow yesterday. More on the way before the weekend. We may not be riding the castlerock lift, but me thinks it likely we'll be skiing it Saturday.
Got a text from people that skied last night. They said that there is more than a foot of good quality snow at the top. As you go down it gains density and moisture. There is about a foot at the bottom. Looks like more snow for the next two days off and on. I am headed up Thursday. Hope to see you this weekend.
Trouble with you is the trouble with me,
Got two good eyes but we still don’t see!
For you're viewing pleasure,
http://www.grindtv.com/action-sports...e-insane-ever/
Whaaaaat!
Trouble with you is the trouble with me,
Got two good eyes but we still don’t see!
I know, really? Has a serious set of balls thats all can say.
Last edited by angler; 12-10-2014 at 12:33 PM.
ropes dropped on paradise and moonshine amongst others. if paradise is in play today, castlerock should be open, at least for hiking, by the weekend with another 6-12" between now and then. good times fellas.
fwiw-quite busy on the webcam for midweek.
radar says its snowing but webcam says not.
Know of two people who skied briefly but left (both advanced: one skier, one rider). Heavy and dense. Great for base building and should groom out well. Sleeting currently at 1:00. Get your yellow wax on.
Schools were cancelled today, so that could explain some of the extra bodies at the hill today. We had at least 14" at my house in Waitsfield, where waterbury received an inch or two. This was probably the heaviest and most wet snow that I remember. It rarely accumulates that much when it is that wet. Definitely good base building snow.
If you have the means to be able to avoid shoveling, take advantage of it. Make sure to clear your roofs, again it's quite heavy.
I'll post an actual TR with pictures later, but I can confirm that at 1,700' there was about 10". The wetness and density at the base compacted it down, but it never switched to rain. There was about 14" at the mid station and up. It was frozen mist and sleet from 11-2, but as I was cleaning my car off it changed over to snow and it is still dumping. Looks like we avoided the niar. Expecting another 4"-8" tonight with more tomorrow and Friday. It is excellent base building snow, but there's next to no float. It's tough to push through and is packing well. With the temps on the horizon being just around freezing before dropping into the 20's, this sets us up very well for being off piste during the next dump. Birdland (upper 2/3) and Murphy's had great coverage with just some small thin spots. I know what's under the snow on Paradise and wasn't willing to test that out yet.
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