Winter Predictions Anyone?

**Yard Sale** · 09-21-2010, 09:45 AM

As we slip into autumn tomorrow is it too early to request snow fall predictions? Could someone, please explain what this hot summer means. Weak El Nino? Strong El Nino? Anybody?

I need something to chew on beyond the economics and demographics of skiing and the valley. They're worthy topics, mind you, but right now to me they're as appealing to me as offering crackers to a man stuck in the desert with no water. Dry.

What I need is a refreshing drink of speculations/forecasts regarding snow fall potential for this upcoming winter. I don't even care if you are right or not. Anybody?

**WWF-VT** · 09-21-2010, 10:30 AM

I saw this posted on a weather blog...it has to be as accurate as anyone else at this time of year. I like how he calls for "snowier than normal" conditions for the Northeast

**summitchallenger** · 09-21-2010, 10:43 AM

Did a third grader make that????

**HowieT2** · 09-21-2010, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by Yard Sale

As we slip into autumn tomorrow is it too early to request snow fall predictions? Could someone, please explain what this hot summer means. Weak El Nino? Strong El Nino? Anybody?

I need something to chew on beyond the economics and demographics of skiing and the valley. They're worthy topics, mind you, but right now to me they're as appealing to me as offering crackers to a man stuck in the desert with no water. Dry.

What I need is a refreshing drink of speculations/forecasts regarding snow fall potential for this upcoming winter. I don't even care if you are right or not. Anybody?

Strong La Nina. This is bad for east coast snow lovers in general but could be good in the more Northern latitudes depending on the storm tracks. last winter we got screwed by the placement of the blocking which shunted system after system out to sea. As far as I understand it we need this blocking (-NAO) to be more optimally placed near Greenland. I've seen predictions for a good December, Warm Jan-Feb. and then a good March. We are due for a good March since the last two were barren.

**ski_resort_observer** · 09-21-2010, 01:43 PM

I'm not foolish enough to predict weather for than 3 days in advance but the folks up at the MWOBS did offer some stoke for the upcoming winter in that they received a small amount of snow last Thursday and advised it is the earliest measurable snow since 2002.

**Brew Ski** · 09-21-2010, 01:46 PM

I found this. The Farmers Almanac (Not the Old Farmers Alamanc which isn't nearly as accurate) runs at ~ 85% accuracy. they were pretty close last year calling for lots of snow in the east. Too bad for Sugarbush that all that lovely POW went south where it wasn't enjoyed and honored the way we would have treated it!

One of the Bush Pilot coaches always states that SB averages ~288" each year. The last 2 years have been low and the law of averages cannot be changed, so I'm predicting 317" with a big February and a huge March!

2011 Winter Outlook – The Wait is Over!
by Caleb Weatherbee | Sunday, August 29th, 2010 | From: Weather

The suspense is finally over. The 2011 Farmers’ Almanac is on shelves now, and our much-awaited long-range forecast for the coming year is no longer a secret. Last year, the Farmers’ Almanac predicted that February would bring widespread snowfall, including many blizzards. That prediction proved all too accurate, with snow blanketing states as far south as Florida and a beast of a storm – dubbed “Snowmageddon” by President Obama – shutting entire cities down throughout the Mid-Atlantic region.

So what’s in store for the coming winter?

(The following overview is for the United States. To read our predictions for Canada, click here).

2010/11 Farmers' Almanac Winter Outlook Map (United States)
For the coming year, the Farmers’ Almanac predicts that Old Man Winter will exhibit a “split personality.” The eastern third of the country, (New England down to Florida and as far west as the lower Ohio River and Mississippi River Valley), will experience colder-than-normal winter temperatures. Across New England, where relatively balmy temperatures prevailed during the winter of 2009–2010, the upcoming winter will be the equivalent of a cold slap in the face, as we forecast much colder-than-normal temperatures.

Meanwhile, for the Western States, milder-than-normal winter temperatures are expected. They will spread from the Pacific Coast inland as far as the Rockies and the western Great Plains. Across the nation’s midsection, near-normal winter temperatures are anticipated.

In terms of precipitation, three storm tracks are expected to predominate during this upcoming winter season. One will be across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, delivering copious amounts of precipitation from lower Texas across the South (Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia) into the Mid-Atlantic region. A second storm track will be oriented across southwestern Canada into the Great Lakes, producing a procession of fast-moving “Alberta Clipper” systems that will bring snowier-than-normal conditions to parts of the Northern and Central Plains, and to the Ohio River and Great Lakes region. As these clipper systems move off the Atlantic Coast, colder-than normal conditions will move into much of the East. Disturbances sweeping in from the Pacific are expected to bring above-normal precipitation to parts of the Pacific Northwest.

All things considered, when comparisons to last year are made, we believe that for most, it will turn out to be a “kinder and gentler” winter overall.

For a more detailed forecast for your region, keep your eye on our long-range forecast, or pick up a copy of the 2011 Farmers’ Almanac, in stores now.

Caleb Weatherbee is the official forecaster for the Farmers' Almanac. His name is actually a pseudonym that has been passed down through generations of Almanac prognosticators and has been used to conceal the true identity of the men and women behind our predictions.

**Hawk** · 09-21-2010, 01:50 PM

Noski??????????????

**Hawk** · 09-21-2010, 01:56 PM

I am predicting a Sh#* load of snow with losts of power days and lots of big fun.

cold to start, normal temps in the middle and then cold up to April.
10 midweek upslope events
4 - 2+ feet dumps
early and late season snow
No New Years melt down

I am going beat the pilots to all the stashes with numerous dawn patrole raids.

Hows that for a prediction.

**HowieT2** · 09-21-2010, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by Hawk

I am predicting a Sh#* load of snow with losts of power days and lots of big fun.

cold to start, normal temps in the middle and then cold up to April.
10 midweek upslope events
4 - 2+ feet dumps
early and late season snow
No New Years melt down

I am going beat the pilots to all the stashes with numerous dawn patrole raids.

Hows that for a prediction.

I'll sign up for that.

**Brew Ski** · 09-21-2010, 03:59 PM

Since the Pilots never talk about where they skied, only how awesome it was, I just don't think you'll be beating the group to the best ski secrets in the East!

Besides, half the time I'm skiing with you anyway! Well, in front of you, but you know,...with you.

Last year, we didn't get average snow, but we also didn't get the December thaw and that made a huge difference. I believe that the mountain skied well all year even with less snow. There certainly was plenty of snow for the CastleRock Extreme and that was around the beginning of March (I think) last year.

Still, I think we are due for some big dumps this year. Hopefully this March will come in like a lion and then have its butt kicked by April!!!!

**Treeskier** · 09-21-2010, 04:48 PM

In the summer of 2000 we had a great sunny warm beach summer. Which was followed by a very snow deep winter. On a 10 cycle I predict another snowy winter!

Frost last night!

Snow dancing to start soon.

**Brew Ski** · 09-21-2010, 06:31 PM

Treeskier,

Is that ankle cleared for snow dances? How about your liver, is that also in shape for ski season? I will be great to have you off the DL this year.

**Treeskier** · 09-22-2010, 05:54 AM

Ankle is doing fine, lots of biking and ready for ski season. Pass the soda water.

Dancing soon.

**Hawk** · 09-22-2010, 06:38 AM

Originally Posted by Brew Ski

Since the Pilots never talk about where they skied, only how awesome it was, I just don't think you'll be beating the group to the best ski secrets in the East!

Besides, half the time I'm skiing with you anyway! Well, in front of you, but you know,...with you.

Last year, we didn't get average snow, but we also didn't get the December thaw and that made a huge difference. I believe that the mountain skied well all year even with less snow. There certainly was plenty of snow for the CastleRock Extreme and that was around the beginning of March (I think) last year.

Still, I think we are due for some big dumps this year. Hopefully this March will come in like a lion and then have its butt kicked by April!!!!

Well you would be surprised how much talking you guys do. Sometimes you don't even know you are talking.

Hawk is ever present and always watching. Kind of like a Hawk.

I can definetley attribute some of my best finds to you guys. Thanks!!!

FYI this summer has been most productive. Hard work and lots of miles on foot.

**noski** · 09-22-2010, 07:42 AM

I have looked EVERYWHERE for the sap buckets for the maple-leaf-catching ceremony, but I seemed to have re-purposed them, so I will have to just use my 49+ years of experience and say 293", and I agree, March will be much better this time around. Ya'll have fun out there. I'll stay here and answer the phone.