Start the Snow Guns?

[Go Figure]

6 am 36`in Boston, 37` Mt Washington summit


THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 310 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 49. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES AROUND 47. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH
AROUND 52. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

[win]

Yes, we have a big inversion this morning. Looking at the web thermometer at 7am it is 25 at the base and 39 at the summit of Lincoln Peak

[Treeskier]

So did we blow snow down low? Like Sunday River and Killington. Very frosty here.

[vonski]

^^^^^Sorry, maybe if you lived here you would have a better grasp of the local weather. Valley is cold, while the peaks are not. See inversion.
I would make other plans for this weekend.

I think your hypothesis about an inversion is not correct. With the passing of the front, high pressure moving in and the winds from the North-Northwest it is highly unlikely that conditions exist for an inversion. Inversions happen when a warm front approaches and warm air overrides the cold. I think that Treeskiers forcast is pretty close.

Big Inversion last night. warm air rises leaving the cold on valley floor!!!!

[summitchallenger]

I think your hypothesis about an inversion is not correct. With the passing of the front, high pressure moving in and the winds from the North-Northwest it is highly unlikely that conditions exist for an inversion. Inversions happen when a warm front approaches and warm air overrides the cold. I think that Treeskiers forcast is pretty close.

Not when the winds are coming out of the SW and bringing in warm air as we have seen with this pattern

THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 310 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 49. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES AROUND 47. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH
AROUND 52. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

[Hawk]

^^^^^Sorry, maybe if you lived here you would have a better grasp of the local weather. Valley is cold, while the peaks are not. See inversion.
I would make other plans for this weekend.

I think your hypothesis about an inversion is not correct. With the passing of the front, high pressure moving in and the winds from the North-Northwest it is highly unlikely that conditions exist for an inversion. Inversions happen when a warm front approaches and warm air overrides the cold. I think that Treeskiers forcast is pretty close.

Big Inversion last night. warm air rises leaving the cold on valley floor!!!!

Nope... look at the wind direction... it changed yesterday from North-Northwest to South. The inversion last night and today is a combination of warmer air sweeping in from the south and radiational cooling. It not so much that warm air rises but cold air settles in the valleys. The warm air aloft is not a product of warm air rising but warm air arriving form the south.

[noski]

The Valley this morning was heavily frosted, it looked almost like midwinter with the dense ice crystals on everything and the sun shining through the sparkling branches. We had frost up above, but not quite as hard as the Valley.

[scharny]

I guess it's too late to even think about moving things to over to Mt Ellen.

One thing I've noticed about late Fall/early Spring inversions in northern New England is that they often have a "sandwich" quality about them, meaning that the warmest air can be mid-mountain with cold in the valley and cold on the summit. Right now, Mt. Washington has 44.4F at 1,600', 51.7F at 4,000', and 42F at 6,288'. Yeah I know Mt. Washington is 2K higher than Mt. Ellen, but these same kinds of weather phenomena happen on 4,000 peaks as well.

With Mt. Ellen's Summit Quad being located at around 3,500' elevation, this might give a better chance at "getting above" things... It worked Fall 2006, which had VERY similar weather conditions to what we have now.

[vonski]

I guess it's too late to even think about moving things to over to Mt Ellen.

One thing I've noticed about late Fall/early Spring inversions in northern New England is that they often have a "sandwich" quality about them, meaning that the warmest air can be mid-mountain with cold in the valley and cold on the summit. Right now, Mt. Washington has 44.4F at 1,600', 51.7F at 4,000', and 42F at 6,288'. Yeah I know Mt. Washington is 2K higher than Mt. Ellen, but these same kinds of weather phenomena happen on 4,000 peaks as well.

With Mt. Ellen's Summit Quad being located at around 3,500' elevation, this might give a better chance at "getting above" things... It worked Fall 2006, which had VERY similar weather conditions to what we have now.

Win did mention somewhere that they are looking to get the guns on at Ellen as well at this point. So, who knows. if they could still make the switch if necessary. Not sure if they could get the top of Ellen open quicker at this point.

[win]

We will turn on both mountains at the same time, but it will take less to get LP open. Less acreage to cover and more capacity.

[win]

Tree,

No! It won't last based on the forecast we see! Warm and rainy for a couple of days. Looks at Killington's cam and you will see what happend there after there opening day.

We are going when we can keep it and not keep redoing the same acreage.

[HowieT2]

judging by the forecast, it does not look promising for next weekend.

Thank you General Atkinson for the snow making dissertation in the weekly e-mail. Really appreciated.

[gone.skiing]

Make snow, not PR

[slatham]

Ok weather freaks, Joe Bastardi, long range forecaster extradinaire from Accuweather (and die-hard snow lover) sees a potential pattern change coming.

"The period Dec 1-15 and if we are lucky for all you dreamers of a white Christmas, should be one that may bring back memories of patterns that had alot people in the running for a white Christmas. This looks to me to be off to starts comparable to 2000,2002 and 2005." and "The blended analog gives this for the month in some selected cities Bos -3 Buf -5 nyc -5 dca -5 cae -5 mco -4 jan -5 cvg -7 dtw -5 dfw -2.5 mci -5 msp -3".

For now, Win is right not to fight the pattern (or "fight the tape" from his previous life). Last year we had very warm weather until right about now, and then it turned. This year, if Joe is right, it turns a week or so later. In the meantime, no sense in wasting money on snow that melts. Enjoy the turkey, you'll need the carbs come the first week in December.

THINK SNOW!

[Fishwife]

........THINKING SNOW..............