SNOW 03/07/08

[007]

Some gibberish from NOAA, but us laypersons can read between the lines....


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST TUESDAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY STORMY
PATTERN WITH ANTHR INTERACTION BTWN SRN/NRN STREAM SYSTEMS...THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE FULL PHASING WL ATTEMPT TO TAKE PLACE. THE
MARCH LION IS ROARING!!!

SRN STREAM SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO FRI MRNG LIFTS NNE ALG ERN
SEABOARD FRI-FRI NGT...INTENSIFIES DUE TO GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
DEEPENING LW TROF BACK ACRS MS RVR VLY MVG E. THIS DEEP LW TROF
STAYS RATHER VERTICAL AND GOES SLIGHTLY NEG TOWARD SAT. THEREFORE...
ALL INDICATIONS AND SUPPORTED BY A VAST MAJORITY OF MDLS/ENSEMBLES
THAT THIS STORM WL DVLP AND HUG COAST WITH A TRACK SOMEWHERE ACRS
SNE...ALTHOUGH ECMWF SUGGESTS FURTHER INLAND ACRS NY...A CRNT OUTLIER
BUT TRENDS HV BEEN FURTHER W.

NO MATTER WHAT SCENARIO...PRECEDING AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY COLD THUS
STORM TRACK WL BE VRY CRITICAL TO PTYPE AND ITS THIS MARGINAL
AIRMASS THAT LENDS CREDENCE TO AN INLAND TRACK AS BEST BAROCLINIC
ZONE CLOSER TO SHORE/INLAND. THEREFORE...LKLY START AS SNOW LATE
FRI-FRI NGT WITH THE WHOLE CHGOVR SCENARIO AS RECENT HISTORY HAS
SHOWN US ERLY SAT-SAT THEN DEEP TROF EXITS NE CONUS WITH VRY BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRS THRU REST OF PERIOD.



More here:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?...&highlight=off

[007]

re-inforcing report from NOAA:

AS OF 340 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BY FRIDAY NIGHT INCLEMENT WX CONDS
RETURN IN EARNEST AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL SOLNS...WITH EURO/NAM CAMP SHOWING A MILDER TRACK
FURTHER WEST...WHILE GFS AND ITS MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLN OFFERS A COLDER
TRACK ACROSS CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MORNINGS CANADIAN
GLOBAL IS A NICE COMPROMISE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO
ATTM. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF SN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...

[Tin Woodsman]

Uh, you left out the next few lines:

WITH A TRANSITION TO RA/SN SOUTH DURING SAT AS SFC CENTER
NEARS. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH VERY MILD AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A
SN OR RA/SN SCENARIO ATTM

Let's not get too excited just yet. Better to be pleasantly surprised.

[HowieT2]

we need a better track for this storm or I'll be doing my whining from inside the lodge.

[HowieT2]

Bingo! BVT issues a watch

.A COMPLEX STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES
LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW AND SLEET.


Things are looking up.

[Yard Sale]

Giddyup!

[Tin Woodsman]

Again, let's not go crazy here. The immediately preceding text is as follows:

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FORECASTED FROM SFC UP TO ABOUT 5K
FT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACRS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH MIX OR SNOW OVER FAR NORTH.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACRS REGION DURING SAT NITE...EXPECT ALL PCPN
TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHWRS LATE.

This could get messy before it finishes off as snow.

[007]

I'll see the Optimists for first chair (or boot pack) Saturday and Sunday AM!

Pessimists can stand by their computers waiting for reported conditions on the forum ..................

[007]

update...


http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/Sto...alSnowFcst.png

[MntMan4Bush]

I hope that map is predicting in feet.......

[007]

Opps, my bad, that was last Sunday.....

Here's the ugly truth, but still wishin' for the best!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ndfd/graphic...owAmt4_btv.png

[Tin Woodsman]

No, the first map was right, as indicated by the dates on the bottom.

Have fun with first chair, Commander Core.

[HowieT2]

No, the first map was right, as indicated by the dates on the bottom.

Have fun with first chair, Commander Core.

Tin, Ye of little faith.
From what I understand SB is right around the line between good and well, not so good. I've seen maps with burlington getting 5-10" and another with SB in a 6-12" band. That would be good. Let's hope for a shift south and east.

[Hawk]

I'll be right beside you 007!

But I thought 10:00 was first chair?...

[Hawk]

The first map is the storm total map ending Sunday morning. The second map is the total on Satruday morning. The weather guys are saying that the storm will hit us in two batches ending late Saturday so they both may be correct. The storm is in the Gulf right now and if the track shifts just a little but we could get what Howe is talking about...or the opposite. At any rate we ski no matter what because that is what we do.....yes?