Starting all over again with the snowpack

[castlerock]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON SUNDAY EVENING AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN ACROSS THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. MEANWHILE...THE AIRMASS
MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS TO SUPPORT A WET ACCUMULATING SNOW
EVENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS OF NEW YORK ABOVE 1500
FEET.

From the discussion 415 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007

[sugarboarder]

Is this a trick?

[BushMogulMaster]

Let's hope it's all snow at the Bush. Even wet snow is welcome for base-building. Then let's get a foot or two of powder!!!

[freeheel_skier]

I'll take some wet cement....I'll take anything!

[ahm]

PLACING OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. INITIALLY...LLVLS WL BE
DRY ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE L20S...AS PRECIP
FALLS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WL COOL COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW ACRS CPV...DACKS...AND SLV. ACCUMULATIONS ACRS CPV WL
BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF
THE DACKS. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS LLVL COLD AIR HANGS
TOUGH THRU 12Z AND SOUNDINGS JUST COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIXTURE
OF SN/IP TO START...THEN BRIEFLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE
ALL RAIN BY 15Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1
TO 3 INCHES...WITH A LIGHT COATING OF ICE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
MORNING...THEREFORE WL HOIST WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR NEK ZNS FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 9AM MONDAY. NEXT QUESTION IS POTENTIAL STRONG SE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS AND THE
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON PRECIP. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA SHOWS STRONG SE
85H JET OF 50 TO +65 KNTS DEVELOPING BY 09Z TONIGHT AND QUICKLY
LIFTING NORTH ACRS OUR CWA BY 15Z MONDAY.

[castlerock]

Maybe, just maybe, we'll get the pattern change we need...

OF NOTE...PAST FEW DAYS...ENSEMBLE FCSTS INDICATE A STRONG TENDENCY
FOR A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NERN CONUS BEYOND
DAY 7. THE AO...WHICH HAS BEEN SO ANOMALOUSLY POSITIVE SO FAR THIS
WINTER...TO LIKELY TREND SHARPLY NEGATIVE BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
INDEED...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LONGER TERM OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN CORE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
BREAKING OFF AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND CROSS POLAR FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THUS A MARKED TREND TOWARDS
MUCH COLDER WX IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY DAY 8 AND BEYOND.

From the discussion, 455 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007

[Lostone]

M... Mi... Middle of next week???

[castlerock]

M... Mi... Middle of next week???

Don't panic, the trend is for nominal temps till the mid of next week, (nominal meaning average January temps, cold enough for the good stuff). Then arctic air, pull out the mittens and face masks, etc.,

[freeheel_skier]

Well I enjoyed the morning mtb riding down south. Then went to a party to watch the Pat's dominate! I guess things could be worse