Shiver in My Bones Just Thinking....About the Weather....

[Tin Woodsman]

No, this is not an homage to 10,000 Maniacs, this is about tracking and discussing the weather which may impact the mountain. If you hadn't noticed, the weather page on the SB website was updated in the last few hours, with Roger Hill weighing in thusly:

12/02/05 - Mid Morning Report
Roger Hill for Dr Ski Weather Jim Roemer

What a difference a day makes! A “snowscape” is in the process of returning, and the winter wonderland will soon enough have you getting those skis & snowboards ready to go.

Lincoln Peak and Mt Ellen could very easily end up with half a foot to perhaps 10-12" across its upper 1/3rd before Saturday morning.

A coastal storm system, what I would call a “Wannabe Nor’easter”, tried to get together, but too little too late means we missed what could have been some solid base material. Still, better than half a foot is possible with at least a little more snow to potentially fall Saturday afternoon.

As the storm pulls and lifts northward toward the Canadian Maritimes, the northwesterly winds will eventually quiet down for the weekend.

As time goes on, the snow will become fluffy as temperature profiles support colder air aloft and some Lake effect action, primarily from Lake Ontario, will get involved.

There could be a lot of powder drifting with this newly fallen snow as it will be fluffy.

The lower portions of the Mad River Valley will not see nearly the amounts at the top, so driving, though slippery at times, should not deter.

As our current storm develops into what could be a rather intense cyclone while curling northwestward through eastern Maine, temperatures will become colder aloft today while winds are expected to pick up from the west.

Lake effect plumes may continue Friday night downwind from Lake Ontario, adding a few more inches across upper portions of the mountain by Sunday.

This storm is a harbinger of much colder weather to settle in at least into the second week of December, a welcome change to the roller coaster ride in temperatures.

We may start to see an active weather pattern featuring more snow next week with perhaps as many as three more storms in the pipe.

Welcome to December!

Sounds pretty good to me, though I know it won't really impact the amount of skiable terrain this weekend. Also, the website is reporting that Mt. Ellen will definitely be reopening Saturday, though I doubt that was really ever in question.

Looks to be the start of an epic early season throughout the NE!

[WWF-VT]

Looks like a good rebound to the meltdown earlier this week. Anyone care to comment on driving conditions on the Warren / Roxbury Mountain Road ?

[smootharc]

I'll take whatever they serve up....I've been building my appetite since last turns last May.

[Tin Woodsman]

Radar out of BTV is looking tasty. Indicating 1"/hour snowfall rates along the spine of the Greens from about Midd Snow Bowl northward right now.

Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now...

[noski]

Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now...

It is snowing hard and has been for a couple hours. Rt 100 is covered, cars going slow.... Actually, Roger Hill is doing Sugarbush weather now, via Roemer. Did you know that Trailboss?

[Tin Woodsman]

Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now...

The guy is something of a hack, IMHO. Always pimping the biggest totals that rarely verify. For instance, he is "dumfounded" that the NWS is predicting anything less than 20" for Jay Peak by Sunday. If it happens - fantastic. But my guess is that it's not bloody likely.

[noski]

Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now...

The guy is something of a hack, IMHO. Always pimping the biggest totals that rarely verify. For instance, he is "dumfounded" that the NWS is predicting anything less than 20" for Jay Peak by Sunday. If it happens - fantastic. But my guess is that it's not bloody likely.

I agree. That is why some of us kind of like Roger Hill. He is honest and if anything, a bit conservative. He is the first to admit he made an error and explains what happened in the weather pattern to cause the sudden change. I learn alot about meteorology in general just listening to him.

[KingM]

On the other hand, it's fun to read Roemer's optimistic reports in the same way that it's fun to hear someone hyping your football team just before a big game. Sure, it's hype, but it could happen.

[Tin Woodsman]

So, um, any first hand reports on snow depths on the mtn? The website is truly awful, with no update since this morning on snow totals. They have updated the trail count to 59 open right now, so I guess one can imply that they've received more than 5", but WTF? Get on the ball SB!!

[kcyanks1]

No, this is not an homage to 10,000 Maniacs, this is about tracking and discussing the weather which may impact the mountain. If you hadn't noticed, the weather page on the SB website was updated in the last few hours, with Roger Hill weighing in thusly:

Sounds pretty good to me, though I know it won't really impact the amount of skiable terrain this weekend. Also, the website is reporting that Mt. Ellen will definitely be reopening Saturday, though I doubt that was really ever in question.

I just checked their trail report and it seems that a lot has opened due to the snow - Steins, Mall, and Twist at South, and Encore, Hammerhead, and Cliffs at North, to name some.

[Tin Woodsman]

I just checked their trail report and it seems that a lot has opened due to the snow - Steins, Mall, and Twist at South, and Encore, Hammerhead, and Cliffs at North, to name some.

I noticed that too. I guess we can divine that they've received more than the 5" the website claims from some undetermined time this morning (they never include a time stamp on their reports!), but should we have to go through these gymnastics to figure it out?

How about a mid-day update that reads like this:

It's dumping up here at the Bush with an additional 4" on top of the 5" we reported this morning, for a total of 9" as of 1PM!! Patrol is dropping ropes all around the mountain right now with such favorites as Stein's Run, Twist, and Cliffs open for business! Depending on additional snowfall tonight and tomorrow, we are planning to go big for the weekend with XX lifts and up to XX trails open. The next report is scheduled for 7AM tomorrow, though we'll update you with any new information from Mountain Ops as soon as we get it.

Wow that took all of two minutes to pull together. Is it really so tough, especially considering that it's a FRIDAY and the flatlanders need to know what's going on?? Should I have to resort to calling my ski shop contacts on the hill to get the straight dope? I don't think so.

[kcyanks1]

I just checked their trail report and it seems that a lot has opened due to the snow - Steins, Mall, and Twist at South, and Encore, Hammerhead, and Cliffs at North, to name some.

I noticed that too. I guess we can divine that they've received more than the 5" the website claims from some undetermined time this morning (they never include a time stamp on their reports!), but should we have to go through these gymnastics to figure it out?

Agreed, that would be useful.

How about a mid-day update that reads like this:

It's dumping up here at the Bush with an additional 4" on top of the 5" we reported this morning, for a total of 9" as of 1PM!! Patrol is dropping ropes all around the mountain right now with such favorites as Stein's Run, Twist, and Cliffs open for business! Depending on additional snowfall tonight and tomorrow, we are planning to go big for the weekend with XX lifts and up to XX trails open. The next report is scheduled for 7AM tomorrow, though we'll update you with any new information from Mountain Ops as soon as we get it.

Doesn't Jay Peak have a patent on that type of snow-reporting? j/k. I'm not implying they lie, just that they always say "we got XX on top of XX on top of XX" etc.

[Tin Woodsman]

I'd rather get Jay's exaggerated information than no information at all.