new forecast out this morning doesn't bode well for early skiing. looks like an H2O deluge is on the way for saturday & saturday night.



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=btv&CiTemplate=1&FcstType=text&MapType=0&MapType=3&site=btv&CiTemplate=1&map.x=240&map.y=135

Au contraire, mon freire. With the NWS website, you now have the ability to do a point forecast anywhere you click on the map on the lower right side of that page. Now it has its limitations in terms of just how pinpoint you can be, but I was able to find a spot at an elevation of 2,932' (vs. your 899' elevation) to give me the forecast at mid-mountain (couldn't find a spot any higher). That presents an entirely different picture:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95

I would highly recommend to all who read this that you bookmark this page. It is essentially telling you what the models believe will be happening at Allyn's Lodge and/or the Glen House.

Tin Woodsman wrote:

Au contraire, mon freire. With the NWS website, you now have the ability to do a point forecast anywhere you click on the map on the lower right side of that page. Now it has its limitations in terms of just how pinpoint you can be, but I was able to find a spot at an elevation of 2,932' (vs. your 899' elevation) to give me the forecast at mid-mountain (couldn't find a spot any higher). That presents an entirely different picture: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95 I would highly recommend to all who read this that you bookmark this page. It is essentially telling you what the models believe will be happening at Allyn's Lodge and/or the Glen House.

That is cool!

Excellent catch Tinny on the NWS forecast.

So, general question to the long time Sugarbush skier/boarder who have witness many seasons. It seems like over the past year there has been a higher frequency of elevation related storms. Particularly the kind that leave rain at the base, but copious snow above 2500 feet.

Is this the normal or a bit unusual? I know that a typical storm and those post storm snow showers (aka the wrap around snow showers) always leave more at the top, but it seems like we have a number of storms over the past year that have left the base with absolutely nothing.

Thoughts?

random_ski_guy wrote:

Excellent catch Tinny on the NWS forecast. So, general question to the long time Sugarbush skier/boarder who have witness many seasons. It seems like over the past year there has been a higher frequency of elevation related storms. Particularly the kind that leave rain at the base, but copious snow above 2500 feet. Is this the normal or a bit unusual? I know that a typical storm and those post storm snow showers (aka the wrap around snow showers) always leave more at the top, but it seems like we have a number of storms over the past year that have left the base with absolutely nothing. Thoughts?

I don't have nearly as much historical perspective as many of the peeps here, but I'll chime in with my $0.02. In general, as you know, there is a large disparity in snowfall at the base vs. the summits in any mtn range. The Greens are no different. Due to colder temps the higher you go, along with significant orographic uplift when storms/moisture hit the Green Mtn spine, the difference is quite evident in Northern VT. My anecdotal observations indicate the the most noticeable break point is indeed around the 2500' mark - roughly the HG Traverse/top of GH lift at LP and the upper half of The Cliffs/top of Inverness on ME.

In the avg season, this phenomenon doesn't make too much if a difference on-piste, though it can certainly impact off-piste somewhat. The lower elevation tree shots definitely take longer to fill in. Last year was decidedly below avg with little established cold air. Snowfall was night only lower than usual, but more elevation dependant than normal b/c of the warm air. Whereas you would normally get say 4" at the base vs. 10" on top in a typical storm, last year you had rain at the base and 5" on top. This was evidenced by the inability to open the SBX b/c the cat roads into the basin weren't covered. I don't think I've seen that midwinter ever, but I haven't been a devotee long enough to know whether that's exceptional.

As for this year, you have to remember that it is October 27. Climatologically, it is still extremely early for this kind of snowfall and weather pattern. The fact that we are seeing in October the type of weather we saw in January last year is a very good thing - it would be next to impossible to get sustained snow depths to the base at this time of year. All the indicators I've seen point to an above avg. winter, so as the atmosphere cools down in NOV and DEC, the snows will come and all will be good.

The orographic snows we get are not just altitude related, you will also see a proximity factor to the spine of the ridge. That is why the lower pockets off Heaven's Gate, and Castlerock will fill load up with snow, when equivalent elevations off North Lynx, and the eastern reaches of Slidebrook will get much less (add to that the sun exposure and one sees why North Lynx gets and holds less snow).

One more link. The BTV office of the NWS gives us at least a little inkling as to the altitude temps in their recreational forecast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/RECBTV

castlerock wrote:

The orographic snows we get are not just altitude related, you will also see a proximity factor to the spine of the ridge. That is why the lower pockets off Heaven's Gate, and Castlerock will fill load up with snow, when equivalent elevations off North Lynx, and the eastern reaches of Slidebrook will get much less (add to that the sun exposure and one sees why North Lynx gets and holds less snow).

That's a great point.

Yah, we get niffty little dumps like that fairly often. Generally mid week. But March 4th was a week end when we marched 30 Blazer kids down the LT from Castle Rock to Paradise(HG was on wind hold) to find waist deep powder. Maybe you remember John Atkinsons article in the "Reporter". Below HG was all wind blown ice.
As for the snow we have now...
Last year about this time we had 18" of heavy wet snow over night at my house(same elev. as Claybrook)and then...
So, as exciting as it is to see white on the hill, let's not count our chickens.
Don't mean to be a stick in the mud, just a realist. It's still VERY early.
As I've said in the past, with the 7 year cycle this season is bound to be very good. Next year is the year you will want to quit your real job.

Bubba wrote:

As for the snow we have now... Last year about this time we had 18" of heavy wet snow over night at my house(same elev. as Claybrook)and then... So, as exciting as it is to see white on the hill, let's not count our chickens. Don't mean to be a stick in the mud, just a realist. It's still VERY early. As I've said in the past, with the 7 year cycle this season is bound to be very good. Next year is the year you will want to quit your real job.

Dear Stick in the mud -

Last year's storm was a complete freak occurence with Hurricane Wilma getting caught up in just about the only cold weather trough VT experienced in the fall. This year is already looking a lot different, and alot more promising, from a big picture perspective. Lots of cold air around these parts for this time of year and lots of snowcover building in Canada, which portends cooler things to come as well.

random_ski_guy wrote:

but it seems like we have a number of storms over the past year that have left the base with absolutely nothing. Thoughts?

"There's always more on the mountain!"


Tin... Great catch on the NOAA thing! I've been using that site for checking weather for years, but never went to play with that map, for an elevation thing.

Still, I'm hearing 60 mile winds for tomorrow, and lots of rain. Possible snow on the backside (That can be cold! ) but we'll know about that on Monday.

Remember in August? When it was hot and a million years to skiing?

No matter what... It is getting closer!

And SRO... Great shots, as always. Was planning on heading over there, when I was out, but Vera didn't take the turn.

Tin Woodsman wrote:

Bubba wrote: As for the snow we have now... Last year about this time we had 18" of heavy wet snow over night at my house(same elev. as Claybrook)and then... So, as exciting as it is to see white on the hill, let's not count our chickens. Don't mean to be a stick in the mud, just a realist. It's still VERY early. As I've said in the past, with the 7 year cycle this season is bound to be very good. Next year is the year you will want to quit your real job. Dear Stick in the mud - Last year's storm was a complete freak occurence with Hurricane Wilma getting caught up in just about the only cold weather trough VT experienced in the fall. This year is already looking a lot different, and alot more promising, from a big picture perspective. Lots of cold air around these parts for this time of year and lots of snowcover building in Canada, which portends cooler things to come as well.

Seems to me we have some sort of "freak occurence" pretty much every year around this time. And you know what? There will be more! Weather in the valley can be a "freak occurence" every day.

-Stick-in-the-mud.

Well, if you're going to be a Stick-in-the-mud today, it should be pretty easy to get in as the ground should be wet enough to make copious amounts of mud.

But you'd better go deep, to keep sticking. Wind is blowing everything in the world over.

Does this count as a "freak occurence", or is this just New England?

Bubba wrote:

Seems to me we have some sort of "freak occurence" pretty much every year around this time. And you know what? There will be more! Weather in the valley can be a "freak occurence" every day. -Stick-in-the-mud.

That may be the case, but geting 2 feet plus out of as single October storm powered by the remnants of a huricane doesn't happen every year. With the warm weather all of last fall, both before and after that storm, that hurricane would have normally been thrown far out to sea and nowhere near VT. There was a 4-5 day break in that season long pattern that happened to coincide with the hurricane's arrival on the east coast. Even for the MRV and even for October, that was a really rare event - a complete anomoly in a sea of warm weather all fall and winter. Won't be the case this year.

Elevation is a massive factor, Our house is at about 1500' and the storm around march 20 that dumped at least a 12-14" on the sumits, didn't even leave a dusting in our yard. Infact that morning I had no Idea it had snowed, and when I was riding up HG that day looking in the woods to the left of Ripcord wondering where the heck all that chest deep pow in the trees that wasn't there yesterday came from. That storm managed to leave a bit of snow over on Nort Lynx, enough that the opened the bottom half of Morningstar.

I am not sure at sugarbush how much snow ends up blowing up over ridge-lines and piling up on the other side, like it does out west, I think it has got to have some effect at SB.

I have skied days where it is raning at the base, sleet at the bottom of HG, wet snow at the top of SB, and Pow at the summit. Kind of odd sking just about every immaginible condition from boiler plate, pow, mashed potatos, and epic corn down deathspout.

From the one or two degree change in temps there can be such a noticible difference, especialy in the spring where often things are still pretty dry for the top 100' of vertical, and then instantly as you cross the - 101' foot mark you are water skiing, or wakeboarding (or bare-footing if you are a freeheeler?)

thanks to all for your thoughts thus far. i'm familiar with the weather phenomena cited; shoulder seasons, orographic and elevation related causes. i'm just surprised how much both have influenced snowfall over the past year.

i remember the snows that fell at the end of presidents week last feb benefited the +3000ft level, but nearly absent at the lower elevations. toss in last fall's storm, the spring storm Mike spoke of, last weeks snows and todays snows and its surprising to see how much the elevation and oragraphic effect influences the results (and pumps the seasonal total up). i realize that, outside of the feb storm, all other snow events mentioned fell in shoulder seasons which are ultra sensitive to temps and elevation.

so i gather, that most feel these disparities are more typical than atypical.

how about in the heart of winter, do the disparities narrow or remain? thoughts?

i have only been paying attention to sugarbush for about a year now, so i don't have a sense of its historical snowfall patterns. i also don't get up to the mtn very often.

-random