R Word! Actually maybe, but.....

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R Word! Actually maybe, but.....

R Word! Actually maybe, but.....

castlerock

Joined: 30 Nov 2005

Posts: 340

Location: Warren

Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 5:44 pm

The last few discussions have been alluding to a pattern shift and some type of "warmer" precip towards the end of the weekend. Well the last discussion has been given us a glimmer of hope about possibly missing a worst case event.

But after our historic snow event, clean off your decks, if you haven't already, and get back out there.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS HOW MUCH LIQUID PCPN ONTO AN ABUNDANT SNOWPACK
ACRS FA...WHICH WL ACT AS A SPONGE AND MAKE ALRDY HEAVY LOADS ON
DECKS...ROOFS...ETC THAT MUCH MORE WEIGHT-BEARING. THEREFORE...IT IS
EVEN MORE CRITICAL DRG THE NXT WEEK TO ATTEMPT TO REMOVE AS MUCH
SNOW FM VULNERABLE LOCATIONS AS PSBL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EST MON FEB 19 2007

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Strat

Joined: 19 Nov 2005

Posts: 756

Location: Ithaca, NY/Moretown, VT

Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 5:55 pm

AO's definitely showing a coming spike...

_________________ Back in VT!

BushMogulMaster

Joined: 19 Nov 2006

Posts: 1027

Location: Fayston, near Mount Ellen

Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 6:57 pm

Don't even talk about it! Please!

_________________ www.sugarbushhistory.com

random_ski_guy

Joined: 03 Dec 2005

Posts: 419

Location: cos cob, ct

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:35 pm

Have the temps really crept up 35 degrees this evening at the base? Its been a five weeks since that's happened, right?

Losing any snow yet? Crying or Very sad

HowieT2

Joined: 28 Feb 2006

Posts: 723

Location: New York

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:12 pm

random_ski_guy wrote:

Have the temps really crept up 35 degrees this evening at the base? Its been a five weeks since that's happened, right?

Losing any snow yet? Crying or Very sad

33 at the LP base.

SKIQUATTRO

Joined: 10 Jan 2007

Posts: 19

Location: North Shore, Long Isld

Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 10:44 am

50 degrees here on Long Island right now

Some hope

castlerock

Joined: 30 Nov 2005

Posts: 340

Location: Warren

Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 5:30 pm

Check out Josh's Blog
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

walks

Joined: 11 Dec 2006

Posts: 117

Location: stuck in a tree well

Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 5:57 pm

Looks positive. Refresh the lines in Slidebrook.

Even better news

castlerock

Joined: 30 Nov 2005

Posts: 340

Location: Warren

Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 8:18 am

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM WL EJECT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND SLOWER WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND CONT TO SHOW SYSTEM
GETTING SHEARED APART FROM CONFLUENT NW FLW ALOFT ACRS THE NE CONUS.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TAKING PRIMARY LOW PRES ACRS CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY...THEN HAVE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WL PREVENT WARM AIR FROM BEING ADVECTED INTO
OUR FA AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS SNOW OR SLEET...GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILES. IN ADDITION...BEST LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL
WAA WL PROVIDE FA WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST
TRENDS SHOW BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
STAYING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER
MODEL TRENDS FOR CHANGES IN TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT.

See, and I got all worried 1 week out

R Word! Actually maybe, but.....

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