Cropped for the fun bits ...

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WINTRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. A VERY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AFFECT OUR REGION IN TWO PARTS LATE THIS WEEK. FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF LIKELY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY... INITIALLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND DURING FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR THAT IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY PRECEDING THE LOW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN LIKELY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. THE CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND GRADUALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS.

I've heard 6-12" batted around in discussions.

You have been warned.

John

I'm going to plan to stay inside for a couple months!

That snow stuff is.... scary

I'd caution getting to excited for the upcoming event. The models are all over the place, even more so than usual. My current guess is that the most important thing coming out of this storm won't be the snowfall (which I think will be modest)but will rather be the resumption of sustainable snowmaking temps.

Lostone wrote:

I'm going to plan to stay inside for a couple months! That snow stuff is.... scary

Only if it doesn't materialize. Keep dancing!

Quote:

Keep dancing!

You'd never say that if you saw me dance! . . . . . .

Lostone wrote:

Quote: Keep dancing! You'd never say that if you saw me dance! . . . . . .

To me skiing is so much like dancing , it is hard to believe people that are good skiers are not also good dancers but it does happen. ; }

Maybe that's the probl... No... That's just part of the problem.

Now they are also taking about another storm on Monday!!!!!!

Tin Woodsman wrote:

I'd caution getting to excited for the upcoming event. The models are all over the place, even more so than usual. My current guess is that the most important thing coming out of this storm won't be the snowfall (which I think will be modest)but will rather be the resumption of sustainable snowmaking temps.

I agree with with Tin as the forcast last night by the NWS showed snow on fri night and snow showers on the weekend but when I checked this morning the snow was gone out of the forcast. It's only Wed so things can change again.

Based on John's post I wish the NWS would make up their mind.

ski_resort_observer wrote:

Based on John's post I wish the NWS would make up their mind.

....mother nature herself to make up her mind. Time for her and Ullr to hook up and make some schneesparks (today's SAT word) !!!!

RAIN CHANGING TO OR MIXING WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
STORM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
END AS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE EXACT
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN
TO SNOW TRANSITION. REGARDLESS OF SNOW TOTALS...LOW VISIBILITY IN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

And..........

WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY MORN...STRONG CD
POOL OF AIR WORKS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING THE AREA BACK TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 TEMPS -10C FOR
MON-TUES...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPS IN THE 20S.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING CD FRNT. S/SW WINDS ON THE INCR TDY/TNGT. MDLS HAVE
CURRENT FRNT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE EVENING HRS INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SPLITS THE CWA BY THE MORNING HRS...WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS UNDER N/NE FLOW...W/ THE SOUTH UNDER S/SW FLOW. BUFKIT
SHOWS POTENTIAL GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY
AREAS SOUTH...AND HIR TRRN...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT IN ZONES. SFC LOW
ALONG FRNT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW TRANSITION TO STRONG S/SW
WINDS AGAIN TIL LOW PASSES FRI NGT...THEN SHIFT WSW. SURROUNDING
OFFICES GOING WITH HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR WINDS ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS STRONGER WINDS NOT INTO AREA TIL AFT 00Z
SAT. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN MOST AREAS AND LET
NEXT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT DATA. WINDS LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONG
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...WITH TIGHT WNW PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS AREA...AND SHOW THEM
ABATING FROM W TO E AS SFC SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FROPA/LOW PASSAGE THURS INTO SATURDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
FROPA...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AS LOW PASSES ON FRIDAY. MDL QPF
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1-2". FRIDAY AS LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR BREAKS IN CLD COVER
ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS. SWODY2 HAS REGION IN SL
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE AS BUFKIT SHOWS LITTLE INSTAB FOR THE
FA...BUT WILL PUT IN MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL ZONES FOR
THE AFTERNOON HRS FRIDAY. AS LOW PASSES FRI NGT/SAT MORN...CD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM W TO E. THIS WILL CHANGE
PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW. LATWEST LOW TRACK HAS PRECIP BEGINNING
TO CHANGE OVER AFT 00Z SAT..WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW. HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SHOW LATER TRANSITION TIME FOR ZONES. UPSLOPES
AREAS AND HIR ELEV HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUM SNOWFALL. DUE TO
FAST MVMNT THRU AREA...THINKING LOW AMTS WILL OCCUR BFR TAPERING
OFF TO -SW. WILL REISSUE ALBSPSBTV TO HIGHLIGHT UPDATED
CONDITIONS. CWA WILL REMAIN IN CD POOL FOR REST OF SATURDAY AS