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Reply to topic Near term weather - Gazing into the Crystal Ball
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Hawk


Joined: 10 Oct 2007
Posts: 587
Location: Just ahead of you in the woods....
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Headed up in a few. I'm thinking of a couple of margaritas at Mig's as a night cap. See you guy's this weekend.
007 is there right now sking. What an A$$. I hate him. Wink

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klop


Joined: 04 Dec 2008
Posts: 22
Location: Champlain Valley
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Have my tix in hand for Reno. I'll send in a report from Kirkwood.
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sgottmann


Joined: 09 Dec 2008
Posts: 39
Location: Saratoga Springs, NY
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Recent develops are more promising for MLK day -- possilbe moderate snowfall sunday night into Monday am. If it works out, the storm may help avoid the January thaw that has been threatening the next couple weeks. Latest from BTV is encouraging:

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED TO THE POINT THAT AN ACCUM LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
EVENT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH PROGS SHOWING DECENT DEFORMATIONAL LIFT AND DEEPER RH PROFILES
HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE HERE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHC/LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED RA/SN AT THE ONSET OF PCPN AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE INITIALLY
QUITE MILD. HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SHOW RAPID WET BULB COOLING IN THE
925-850 MB LYR AS PCPN INTENSITY INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
P-TYPE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW IN ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. DUE
TO FAST AND RELATIVELY CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MARITIMES
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVER...THUS WHILE SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE DECENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY EVENT WOULD
LIKELY OCCUR DURING A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN MANY
AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING.-- End Changed Discussion --

Also -- TREND IN 12Z NWP GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD A STRONGER SFC ANTICYCLONE SWD
FROM QUEBEC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE
POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARMING TREND SHOWN IN SOME OF THE
EARLIER MODEL CYCLES. IF THE STRONGER QUEBEC RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED...NIGHTTIME RADIATIVE COOLING CYCLES TEND TO REINFORCE
THESE FEATURES ESPECIALLY WITH CONFLUENT 500-250MB FLOW REGIME
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 20S WED-FRI...RATHER THAN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAW POTENTIAL.

In short, things are looking better today than yesterday -- think snow.
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Plies
barkbiter


Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Posts: 115
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Brew Ski........it's all the fruity, skidding snow dances. Stop already ! All of you ! Snow dances are for Native Americans only. Maybe The Chief can help.
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Maui?really?
Brew Ski


Joined: 25 Mar 2009
Posts: 60
Location: Skiing the woods or sulking in Canton, MA
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We missed you today Barky.

I heard that you were doing something fruity like saving dolphins in Maui? Really? Aren't they what makes canned tuna taste so good?

Have a fruity drink and get back to ski country. Then I can go back to "following the Bark Biter!!!"

Great day today. Sounds like a big party brewing at Miguel's tonight! Be better there.
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Fruits
barkbiter


Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Posts: 115
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BrewSki.......not really all that fruity today, surfing 12 foot waves. That's twice my height, or triple yours!
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fruit drinks
Brew Ski


Joined: 25 Mar 2009
Posts: 60
Location: Skiing the woods or sulking in Canton, MA
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Hey Barky,
Drinking a few too many girly fruit drinks, laying in the surf under the drink unbrella may make you think the waves are 12 feet, but really your shorts are just filling with sand and the waves look big. At your age you've shrunk enough to be well below 5'10". Deflate your water wings and come back to ski country. It is snowing.

Brew Ski
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Colorado Dirt


Joined: 22 Nov 2009
Posts: 25
Location: NYC/Warren
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not to rub anything in as i'm here with you guys but at least someone, somewhere is getting some deep turns in

http://www.snowforecast.com/WolfCreekSkiArea
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Near term weather - Gazing into the Crystal Ball
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