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Yard Sale
09-21-2010, 09:45 AM
As we slip into autumn tomorrow is it too early to request snow fall predictions? Could someone, please explain what this hot summer means. Weak El Nino? Strong El Nino? Anybody?

I need something to chew on beyond the economics and demographics of skiing and the valley. They're worthy topics, mind you, but right now to me they're as appealing to me as offering crackers to a man stuck in the desert with no water. Dry.

What I need is a refreshing drink of speculations/forecasts regarding snow fall potential for this upcoming winter. I don't even care if you are right or not. Anybody?

WWF-VT
09-21-2010, 10:30 AM
I saw this posted on a weather blog...it has to be as accurate as anyone else at this time of year. I like how he calls for "snowier than normal" conditions for the Northeast

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_RAYQNSAWCHA/TARiYeniXuI/AAAAAAAAAA8/wD8BTs8VEoA/s1600/2010-2011+Forecast.png

summitchallenger
09-21-2010, 10:43 AM
Did a third grader make that???? ;)

HowieT2
09-21-2010, 11:47 AM
As we slip into autumn tomorrow is it too early to request snow fall predictions? Could someone, please explain what this hot summer means. Weak El Nino? Strong El Nino? Anybody?

I need something to chew on beyond the economics and demographics of skiing and the valley. They're worthy topics, mind you, but right now to me they're as appealing to me as offering crackers to a man stuck in the desert with no water. Dry.

What I need is a refreshing drink of speculations/forecasts regarding snow fall potential for this upcoming winter. I don't even care if you are right or not. Anybody?

Strong La Nina. This is bad for east coast snow lovers in general but could be good in the more Northern latitudes depending on the storm tracks. last winter we got screwed by the placement of the blocking which shunted system after system out to sea. As far as I understand it we need this blocking (-NAO) to be more optimally placed near Greenland. I've seen predictions for a good December, Warm Jan-Feb. and then a good March. We are due for a good March since the last two were barren.

ski_resort_observer
09-21-2010, 01:43 PM
I'm not foolish enough to predict weather for than 3 days in advance but the folks up at the MWOBS did offer some stoke for the upcoming winter in that they received a small amount of snow last Thursday and advised it is the earliest measurable snow since 2002.

Brew Ski
09-21-2010, 01:46 PM
I found this. The Farmers Almanac (Not the Old Farmers Alamanc which isn't nearly as accurate) runs at ~ 85% accuracy. they were pretty close last year calling for lots of snow in the east. Too bad for Sugarbush that all that lovely POW went south where it wasn't enjoyed and honored the way we would have treated it!

One of the Bush Pilot coaches always states that SB averages ~288" each year. The last 2 years have been low and the law of averages cannot be changed, so I'm predicting 317" with a big February and a huge March!

2011 Winter Outlook – The Wait is Over!
by Caleb Weatherbee | Sunday, August 29th, 2010 | From: Weather

The suspense is finally over. The 2011 Farmers’ Almanac is on shelves now, and our much-awaited long-range forecast for the coming year is no longer a secret. Last year, the Farmers’ Almanac predicted that February would bring widespread snowfall, including many blizzards. That prediction proved all too accurate, with snow blanketing states as far south as Florida and a beast of a storm – dubbed “Snowmageddon” by President Obama – shutting entire cities down throughout the Mid-Atlantic region.

So what’s in store for the coming winter?

(The following overview is for the United States. To read our predictions for Canada, click here).


2010/11 Farmers' Almanac Winter Outlook Map (United States)
For the coming year, the Farmers’ Almanac predicts that Old Man Winter will exhibit a “split personality.” The eastern third of the country, (New England down to Florida and as far west as the lower Ohio River and Mississippi River Valley), will experience colder-than-normal winter temperatures. Across New England, where relatively balmy temperatures prevailed during the winter of 2009–2010, the upcoming winter will be the equivalent of a cold slap in the face, as we forecast much colder-than-normal temperatures.

Meanwhile, for the Western States, milder-than-normal winter temperatures are expected. They will spread from the Pacific Coast inland as far as the Rockies and the western Great Plains. Across the nation’s midsection, near-normal winter temperatures are anticipated.

In terms of precipitation, three storm tracks are expected to predominate during this upcoming winter season. One will be across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, delivering copious amounts of precipitation from lower Texas across the South (Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia) into the Mid-Atlantic region. A second storm track will be oriented across southwestern Canada into the Great Lakes, producing a procession of fast-moving “Alberta Clipper” systems that will bring snowier-than-normal conditions to parts of the Northern and Central Plains, and to the Ohio River and Great Lakes region. As these clipper systems move off the Atlantic Coast, colder-than normal conditions will move into much of the East. Disturbances sweeping in from the Pacific are expected to bring above-normal precipitation to parts of the Pacific Northwest.

All things considered, when comparisons to last year are made, we believe that for most, it will turn out to be a “kinder and gentler” winter overall.

For a more detailed forecast for your region, keep your eye on our long-range forecast, or pick up a copy of the 2011 Farmers’ Almanac, in stores now.

Caleb Weatherbee is the official forecaster for the Farmers' Almanac. His name is actually a pseudonym that has been passed down through generations of Almanac prognosticators and has been used to conceal the true identity of the men and women behind our predictions.

Hawk
09-21-2010, 01:50 PM
Noski??????????????

Hawk
09-21-2010, 01:56 PM
I am predicting a Sh#* load of snow with losts of power days and lots of big fun.

cold to start, normal temps in the middle and then cold up to April.
10 midweek upslope events
4 - 2+ feet dumps
early and late season snow
No New Years melt down

I am going beat the pilots to all the stashes with numerous dawn patrole raids.

Hows that for a prediction.

8) 8) 8) :wink:

HowieT2
09-21-2010, 02:01 PM
I am predicting a Sh#* load of snow with losts of power days and lots of big fun.

cold to start, normal temps in the middle and then cold up to April.
10 midweek upslope events
4 - 2+ feet dumps
early and late season snow
No New Years melt down

I am going beat the pilots to all the stashes with numerous dawn patrole raids.

Hows that for a prediction.

8) 8) 8) :wink:

I'll sign up for that.

Brew Ski
09-21-2010, 03:59 PM
Since the Pilots never talk about where they skied, only how awesome it was, I just don't think you'll be beating the group to the best ski secrets in the East! :wink:

Besides, half the time I'm skiing with you anyway! Well, in front of you, but you know,...with you. :twisted:

Last year, we didn't get average snow, but we also didn't get the December thaw and that made a huge difference. I believe that the mountain skied well all year even with less snow. There certainly was plenty of snow for the CastleRock Extreme and that was around the beginning of March (I think) last year.

Still, I think we are due for some big dumps this year. Hopefully this March will come in like a lion and then have its butt kicked by April!!!!

Treeskier
09-21-2010, 04:48 PM
In the summer of 2000 we had a great sunny warm beach summer. Which was followed by a very snow deep winter. On a 10 cycle I predict another snowy winter!

Frost last night!

Snow dancing to start soon. :)

Brew Ski
09-21-2010, 06:31 PM
Treeskier,

Is that ankle cleared for snow dances? How about your liver, is that also in shape for ski season? I will be great to have you off the DL this year.

Treeskier
09-22-2010, 05:54 AM
Ankle is doing fine, lots of biking and ready for ski season. Pass the soda water.

Dancing soon.

Hawk
09-22-2010, 06:38 AM
Since the Pilots never talk about where they skied, only how awesome it was, I just don't think you'll be beating the group to the best ski secrets in the East! :wink:

Besides, half the time I'm skiing with you anyway! Well, in front of you, but you know,...with you. :twisted:

Last year, we didn't get average snow, but we also didn't get the December thaw and that made a huge difference. I believe that the mountain skied well all year even with less snow. There certainly was plenty of snow for the CastleRock Extreme and that was around the beginning of March (I think) last year.

Still, I think we are due for some big dumps this year. Hopefully this March will come in like a lion and then have its butt kicked by April!!!!

Well you would be surprised how much talking you guys do. Sometimes you don't even know you are talking. :wink: Hawk is ever present and always watching. Kind of like a Hawk. :lol: I can definetley attribute some of my best finds to you guys. Thanks!!!

FYI this summer has been most productive. Hard work and lots of miles on foot. :wink:

noski
09-22-2010, 07:42 AM
I have looked EVERYWHERE for the sap buckets for the maple-leaf-catching ceremony, but I seemed to have re-purposed them, so I will have to just use my 49+ years of experience and say 293", and I agree, March will be much better this time around. Ya'll have fun out there. I'll stay here and answer the phone.

notorious
09-22-2010, 10:12 AM
As head of the CofC it is not your sworn duty to predict that we get more snow than any other area in VT, especially Jay, whose constant advertising in our fair Valley is getting irritating (and whose snowfall claims are so hyped as to be humorous) ? Can't we out-shill our rivals? BTW, when is peak foliage day?

Plowboy
09-22-2010, 10:55 AM
March will be much better this time around.

Yea.................Bring it on!!!!!!!!! The past 2 have been the worst. How about Superstorm II? 8)

The Storm of the Century, also known as the ’93 Superstorm, or the (Great) Blizzard of 1993, was a large cyclonic storm that occurred on March 12–13, 1993, on the East Coast of North America. It is unique for its intensity, massive size and wide-reaching effect. At its height the storm stretched from Canada to Central America

noski
09-23-2010, 06:30 AM
As head of the CofC it is not your sworn duty to predict that we get more snow than any other area in VT, especially Jay, whose constant advertising in our fair Valley is getting irritating (and whose snowfall claims are so hyped as to be humorous) ? Can't we out-shill our rivals? BTW, when is peak foliage day?

I would rather over-deliver and become honorary queen of the skimrv valley, so I will stick with 293. ;-) I can't possibly outshill Jay and keep my integrity, or a straight face for that matter.... Peak? I say (but I will say only here) 2:14pm 10/6.

notorious
09-23-2010, 04:08 PM
[quote=notorious].... Peak? I say (but I will say only here) 2:14pm 10/6.

If it's not too cynical to state(and as Lily Tomlin says, "No matter how cynical I get, I can't keep up.") I thought peak foliage only came after a three-day weekend. But I agree that we are a week ahead of normal schedule. High elevations in NH (boo,hiss) are even more advanced than MRV. What foliage extravaganzas do you have planned to keep our money in motion? *


*author's note. (I'm expecting the board police to move this discourse to their preferred location)

noski
09-23-2010, 06:10 PM
If it's not too cynical to state(and as Lily Tomlin says, "No matter how cynical I get, I can't keep up.") I thought peak foliage only came after a three-day weekend. But I agree that we are a week ahead of normal schedule. High elevations in NH (boo,hiss) are even more advanced than MRV. What foliage extravaganzas do you have planned to keep our money in motion? *


*author's note. (I'm expecting the board police to move this discourse to their preferred location) Nothing this year, but I am thinking it's time to resurrect the fun for 2011. Anyone can pm me with some ideas. Remember, I am only 1 person, so it would require some volunteer energy! :-)

Brew Ski
09-25-2010, 10:54 AM
Just took a hike on the Mountain. Colors are in full. Wind has removed lots of color from the peaks. The snow making pond is about a beautiful as it will get this morning! Complete full red, yellow, orange and browns. Just the right amount of leaves dropping onto the trail to make it feel like autumnal flurries.

Better be here, your going to miss it!

70F and full sunshine. The farmer's market was really enjoyable and full of vendors and people.

Construction is coming nicely for the new buildings. It looks like they are getting ready to put on the roof shingles.

Took my skis out of the closet, brought them out into the sunshine and did a little dance with them to bring some snow. I'm ready. 317" is coming. Time to ratchet up the exercises.

Think snow!

ski_resort_observer
09-25-2010, 05:29 PM
Just took a hike on the Mountain. Colors are in full. Wind has removed lots of color from the peaks. The snow making pond is about a beautiful as it will get this morning! Complete full red, yellow, orange and browns. Just the right amount of leaves dropping onto the trail to make it feel like autumnal flurries.

Better be here, your going to miss it!


Acually you have IMHO 7-10 days until peak color at the Bush and the MRV. . I think most people realize that you can't really predict when peak is cause it's diferent depending on elevation and latitude. Having said that I think Noski's 10/6 is spot on. I was going to do the Price is Right thing and say 10/5 but Noski knows her MRV foliage like Egan knows every tree and turn on Rumble.

I actually took my camera to work yesterday to take a few pics of the construction and the foliage but due the weather anomaly, it was 80F last night at 1:AM, I got there early and the whole mountain was in a light fog/haze. The summit was totally in clouds but it's mostly softwoods up there so there isn't much color anyway. I wasn't planning to post them but I wanted to show that the color has a ways to go.

In fairness to Brewski, once the fog burned off it was a beautiful day and in places there was some nice color looked really beautiful. In the valley there was more color and it looked even nicer.

Useless factoid except someone..........
Vermont has 70 species of Maple trees, the Sugar, Red and Norway are the most popular species. The most interesting ones are the Crimson King, they are the ones which are dark blood red in the summer and do not change color in the fall

http://www.snowjournal.com/images/gallery_snowjournal/4c9e76181bfec.jpg

http://www.snowjournal.com/images/gallery_snowjournal/4c9e700e89cc9.jpg

http://www.snowjournal.com/images/gallery_snowjournal/4c9e702bea614.jpg

gostan
09-30-2010, 07:34 AM
I am working out hard for a big dump of a season....trying to leave Mr. Burger in the dust!

http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab46/gostan1949/20100921cpbss-a.jpg

HowieT2
10-04-2010, 03:07 PM
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/38281/henrys-winter-forecast-for-dec-1-2010-to-march-31-2011.asp

from what I understand this is consistent with the consensus. pretty good. FTW.

happygirl
10-06-2010, 01:36 PM
A rainy october brings a snowy winter. Plus I didn't buy a season pass this year, so it should mean a snowy winter. :wink:

win
10-06-2010, 04:06 PM
Happy Girl,

Have you thought about a SugarDirect in case it is an epic winter? $99 is all you have at risk?

happygirl
10-06-2010, 11:35 PM
SugarDirect? Hmmm.... I will think about it.. I'm shooting for Jan.8+9 for $40 ticket from the Conn.Ski Council days calendar. Thanks for the suggestion Win.

Hawk
10-07-2010, 07:16 AM
So here is an outlook from our friends at FIS. I love the part about upslope. If you haven't been following these guys and are not happy with the stoke on this board, I suggest checking out the trip reports also. These guys totally rip it IMO.

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/winter-outlook/

gpetrics
10-07-2010, 07:55 AM
So here is an outlook from our friends at FIS. I love the part about upslope. If you haven't been following these guys and are not happy with the stoke on this board, I suggest checking out the trip reports also. These guys totally rip it IMO.

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/winter-outlook/

thanks for the link over to FIS Hawk (and MUCH thanks for the kind words!! really glad we stoke your fire. that's what we love to hear the most)

Lionel did some serious heavy duty lifting to get this forecast, and has been waiting a little bit to make sure his thoughts from earlier in the fall have lined up with the outcomes we've seen so far. As I understand it based on talking with him through email, besides studying the seasonal analogues, analyzing the global weather teleconnections, and staying up to date with the long range research done in the weather community, he also traveled to South Africa for over a month to find patterns between World Cup outcomes and winter weather, went to Norway to put ULLR on notice for threatening to be subservient to "The Little Girl (aka La Nina)," and has hunted down and found out who the cigar guy (http://buzz.yahoo.com/buzzlog/94051?fp=1) is only to learn... HE IS THE CIGAR GUY (http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/famous-internet-cigar-guy/). So yeah... he's pretty much got you covered

BRING ON WINTER!!

HowieT2
10-07-2010, 08:34 AM
FIS guys rock. Thanks.
Forecast is in line with everything else I've read about the upcoming winter.

gpetrics
10-07-2010, 09:50 AM
thanks Howie!

In other news (I can start a new thread if mods want), I took a few trips through The Valley this summer to photograph one of your most treasured swimming holes (Warren Falls), and MAN was I impressed. That place was off the friggin charts!
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/wp-content/uploads/greg/2010/09/fromlight-todark/IMG_3117.jpg (http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trip-reports/09-10/from-light-to-dark/)
(more shots here (http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trip-reports/09-10/from-light-to-dark/) edit: from other swim holes around VT)

I was practicing a photo technique I plan to employ this winter... but came away with so much more. That place really knocked my socks off! More to The Valley apparently than powder slayage I guess! ;)

HowieT2
10-07-2010, 10:08 AM
thanks Howie!

In other news (I can start a new thread if mods want), I took a few trips through The Valley this summer to photograph one of your most treasured swimming holes (Warren Falls), and MAN was I impressed. That place was off the friggin charts!
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/wp-content/uploads/greg/2010/09/fromlight-todark/IMG_3117.jpg (http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trip-reports/09-10/from-light-to-dark/)
(more shots here (http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trip-reports/09-10/from-light-to-dark/))

I was practicing a photo technique I plan to employ this winter... but came away with so much more. That place really knocked my socks off! More to The Valley apparently than powder slayage I guess! ;)

those pictures are insane. keep them coming.

noski
10-07-2010, 10:34 AM
Very cool!!

ski_resort_observer
10-07-2010, 12:11 PM
Interesting.....looks more like it's inside of some cave than Warren Falls. Sweet!

With the new HDR software and Photoshop the creative possibilities are practically endless. Warren Falls is amazing but for many of us it's kinda like flypaper....keeps all the visitors in one place leaving the lesser well known ones to the local hokels like myself. :wink:

If you like Warren Falls you should check out the Bolton Pot Holes and Huntington Gorge. Much safer to photograph these places than swim in them, especially Huntington Gorge. All a short drive from the MRV.

gpetrics
10-07-2010, 01:04 PM
If you like Warren Falls you should check out the Bolton Pot Holes and Huntington Gorge. Much safer to photograph these places than swim in them, especially Huntington Gorge. All a short drive from the MRV.

and all featured in that collection i linked to ;)

PS: no HDR or blending going on in the shots.. just good old fashioned single exposure flash photography

ski_resort_observer
10-08-2010, 12:02 AM
Very cool shots......I really like the one with the young man(I'm an old fart) diving out horizontally. Fill flash really looks natural compared to the others giving it an interesting action element with the slow exposure of the water. I assume for your fans and commercially speaking the ones with the young lady are more popular. :wink:

I hope you don't mind the editorial comment as that was my previous life. I was Senior Editor of the Wyoming version of the Day in the Life project a few decades ago, we had to wash down 12,000 images all shot on the same day to the best 250 images in about 1 day and then send then up the line.

Tin.... if you can break out and put these image posts in their own thread in the proper forum, wouldn't hurt my feelings.
My bad, I kept it going. Maybe "FIS images" or something like that. thanks in advance :D

gpetrics - Thanks for posting your awesome images and the link, any chance you'll be at the Bush sometime this winter? Any other images aside from the link taken in the MRV?

Getting back to Winter Predictions.....I heard it snowed on Mt Mansfield this morning!!!!!!

gpetrics
10-08-2010, 06:05 AM
Very cool shots......I really like the one with the young man(I'm an old fart) diving out horizontally. Fill flash really looks natural compared to the others giving it an interesting action element with the slow exposure of the water. I assume for your fans and commercially speaking the ones with the young lady are more popular. :wink:

I hope you don't mind the editorial comment as that was my previous life. I was Senior Editor of the Wyoming version of the Day in the Life project a few decades ago, we had to wash down 12,000 images all shot on the same day to the best 250 images in about 1 day and then send then up the line.

Tin.... if you can break out and put these image posts in their own thread in the proper forum, wouldn't hurt my feelings.
My bad, I kept it going. Maybe "FIS images" or something like that. thanks in advance :D

gpetrics - Thanks for posting your awesome images and the link, any chance you'll be at the Bush sometime this winter? Any other images aside from the link taken in the MRV?

Getting back to Winter Predictions.....I heard it snowed on Mt Mansfield this morning!!!!!!

yeah it was my fault for even bringing it in here...so i'm sorry. if a mod doesn't mind, i'd really appreciate them fixing my SNAFU for me :oops:

to note: i don't mind your editorial comments... just figured i'd set the record straight. i should have been more appreciative of your opinion at the get go... i actually know a little bit about who you are already ;) i'll share more MRV images in another thread later. for now....

BACK TO WEATHER: Snow in the forecast TONIGHT for the south central greens.

webcams not showing anything on mansfield that i can tell. doesnt' mean it isn't there. waiting to hear from a few friends who work up there.

Mount washington DEFINITELY got snow last night. webcams show a mtn which is unevenly white which usually means there is more than just a rime ice up there.

i'm heading up to camp on mansfield tonight for a camping trip. will have minimal sliding equipment just in case!!

noski
03-04-2011, 09:27 AM
Last night I scanned this thread to see who-said-what for winter snow predictions. I only saw two actual numbers quoted:

Me, 293" with a better March than the last 2 years
Brewski said 317"

Sugarbush reports 232" ytd and MRG at 217". So I have only one five foot snowstorm to go, though I would prefer 5 one foot dumps!

noski
03-05-2011, 02:20 PM
So I have only one five foot snowstorm to go, though I would prefer 5 one foot dumps! Looks like I will make a dent in my wished-for five, one-foot dumps on Sunday night! Yay!

noski
03-08-2011, 10:13 AM
So I have only one five foot snowstorm to go, though I would prefer 5 one foot dumps! Looks like I will make a dent in my wished-for five, one-foot dumps on Sunday night! Yay!

I only have 27" left to get to my 293" prediction from last fall.... Maybe! (take THAT, Groundhog!)

EDIT: oh! and I think indeed we can agree this has been a better March than the last couple! :-)

Brew Ski
03-08-2011, 11:05 AM
Great post Noski. I was just thinking about this last night.

Officially winter goes to March 21st. No matter what that furry varmit in PA says!. With more snow coming this weekend and the continued La Nina effect, I'm still hopeful for my predicted 317". Don't forget, the end of March and Early April often reward us with a couple big dumps on good ski years. So far, this season is looking promising. Ullr still owes us for the past two lousy March with little or no snow.

I'll say it..." Ullr, you don't have the guts to send us another 6 feet of snow! I triple dog dare you!!! That's right,...TRIPLE....DOG...DARE !!!! You can't not do a triple dog dare!