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smootharc
01-15-2010, 08:31 AM
Who is thinking and saying what about the near term possibilities for...uh...um...oh, yeah...SNOW...in say the next 10 days ?

Weather forecasts ? Temps anticipated ? Epic storm cycle arriving...like yesterday ? What are your sources saying ? Is there at least a vaguely defined consensus (for what that's worth in the weather prognosticating arts) about our mid to late-January probabilities ?

Just curious (And I'm keeping my March & April dance card wide open for MRV pow).

Hawk
01-15-2010, 09:25 AM
Well it looks like warmer weather and no big storms for the foreseeable future. They are saying that the end of the month looks better with colder weather and some possible storms. Also, Josh Fox's forecast is very negative. I think he needs a beer. :wink:

boze
01-15-2010, 11:35 AM
Hawk nails the general consensus for near & mid term pattern

Good source of NE ski weather info: http://www.famousinternetskiers.com

Lionel has the goods and the requisite track record

Most recent posting here (outside potential for some positive developments):
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/long-range-thoughts-sniffing-out-a-mid-month-storm/

HowieT2
01-15-2010, 01:25 PM
my crystal ball tells me that if you are trying to decide when to take a weekend off, the next two weeks may be a good time. Let's hope the thaw is not too bad, and followed by some snow in quick succession.

gone.skiing
01-15-2010, 01:34 PM
My crystal ball tells me that he is looking at airfares and dates...

HowieT2
01-15-2010, 01:41 PM
My crystal ball tells me that he is looking at airfares and dates...

in that case go to the Rockies.

Colorado Dirt
01-15-2010, 02:32 PM
My crystal ball tells me that he is looking at airfares and dates...

in that case go to the Rockies.


I just got back from a quick business/pleasure trip in the rockies. Not a great situation over there either

Hawk
01-15-2010, 02:34 PM
They say it is all about to change in the Rockies. The storms are lining up.

Hawk
01-15-2010, 02:39 PM
Look where the jet stream is going. Utah!
http://s1.postimage.org/2Z0e9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gx2Z0e9)

Tin Woodsman
01-15-2010, 02:41 PM
Something on the order of 10 feet expected at Mammoth.

Colorado Dirt
01-15-2010, 02:45 PM
They say it is all about to change in the Rockies. The storms are lining up.

I've seen that pattern before and it favors the San Juans. Viva Silverton www.silvertonmountain.com

Beaver Creek and Vail should do ok as well but my money is on the san juans and sangre de cristos

Brew Ski
01-15-2010, 02:46 PM
This is cruel and unusual punishment this season.

It rained all summer and fall. El Nino is churned up giving good supply of moisture, and the cold has been here. So where are our Big Dumps?

All autumn everyone on this forum was doing snow dances and we got rain. This is torture for me. Just waiting for some fresh.

I can't help but think someone has jinxed us. Fess up! Who was naughty?? Just admit it and maybe it will all change for the better!

I'd start pointing fingers but unfortunately smootharc, Hawk and 007 have been pretty good this season. Even Barkbiter had a beer with me.

Waiting, waiting, Bueller, Bueller.....

smootharc
01-15-2010, 02:56 PM
Who was naughty??

...naughty. Because I think 007's mind positively swims with naughty thoughts. That's why I try to avoid chairlift rides with him, so as to minimize my exposure to corrupting influences.

:D

Hawk
01-15-2010, 03:12 PM
That's kind of funny Smooth......he said the same about you. :wink:

Brew Ski
01-15-2010, 03:12 PM
Who was naughty??

...naughty. Because I think 007's mind positively swims with naughty thoughts. That's why I try to avoid chairlift rides with him, so as to minimize my exposure to corrupting influences.

:D

Don't you mean, you don't ride on the chairlift with 007 so you don't add fuel to the fire?

Hawk
01-15-2010, 03:33 PM
Headed up in a few. I'm thinking of a couple of margaritas at Mig's as a night cap. See you guy's this weekend.
007 is there right now sking. What an A$$. I hate him. :wink:

klop
01-15-2010, 05:03 PM
Have my tix in hand for Reno. I'll send in a report from Kirkwood.

sgottmann
01-15-2010, 05:25 PM
Recent develops are more promising for MLK day -- possilbe moderate snowfall sunday night into Monday am. If it works out, the storm may help avoid the January thaw that has been threatening the next couple weeks. Latest from BTV is encouraging:

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED TO THE POINT THAT AN ACCUM LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
EVENT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH PROGS SHOWING DECENT DEFORMATIONAL LIFT AND DEEPER RH PROFILES
HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE HERE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHC/LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED RA/SN AT THE ONSET OF PCPN AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE INITIALLY
QUITE MILD. HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SHOW RAPID WET BULB COOLING IN THE
925-850 MB LYR AS PCPN INTENSITY INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
P-TYPE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW IN ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. DUE
TO FAST AND RELATIVELY CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MARITIMES
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVER...THUS WHILE SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE DECENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY EVENT WOULD
LIKELY OCCUR DURING A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN MANY
AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING.-- End Changed Discussion --

Also -- TREND IN 12Z NWP GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD A STRONGER SFC ANTICYCLONE SWD
FROM QUEBEC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE
POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARMING TREND SHOWN IN SOME OF THE
EARLIER MODEL CYCLES. IF THE STRONGER QUEBEC RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED...NIGHTTIME RADIATIVE COOLING CYCLES TEND TO REINFORCE
THESE FEATURES ESPECIALLY WITH CONFLUENT 500-250MB FLOW REGIME
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 20S WED-FRI...RATHER THAN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAW POTENTIAL.

In short, things are looking better today than yesterday -- think snow.

barkbiter
01-16-2010, 02:50 PM
Brew Ski........it's all the fruity, skidding snow dances. Stop already ! All of you ! Snow dances are for Native Americans only. Maybe The Chief can help.

Brew Ski
01-16-2010, 07:02 PM
We missed you today Barky.

I heard that you were doing something fruity like saving dolphins in Maui? Really? Aren't they what makes canned tuna taste so good?

Have a fruity drink and get back to ski country. Then I can go back to "following the Bark Biter!!!"

Great day today. Sounds like a big party brewing at Miguel's tonight! Be better there.

barkbiter
01-16-2010, 09:34 PM
BrewSki.......not really all that fruity today, surfing 12 foot waves. That's twice my height, or triple yours!

Brew Ski
01-18-2010, 01:52 PM
Hey Barky,
Drinking a few too many girly fruit drinks, laying in the surf under the drink unbrella may make you think the waves are 12 feet, but really your shorts are just filling with sand and the waves look big. At your age you've shrunk enough to be well below 5'10". Deflate your water wings and come back to ski country. It is snowing.

Brew Ski

Colorado Dirt
01-19-2010, 05:53 PM
not to rub anything in as i'm here with you guys but at least someone, somewhere is getting some deep turns in

http://www.snowforecast.com/WolfCreekSkiArea