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TreeBandit
10-27-2009, 09:49 AM
Hi Win, based on the opening day plans, when do you hope to get the snow guns going?

summitchallenger
10-27-2009, 09:58 AM
I think they have said all along that they will start on November 1st or 2nd.

http://www.sugarbush.com/snow-trails-conditions/live-mountain-update

Also look at the presentation that Win did at the Community Day.

Hawk
10-27-2009, 10:06 AM
....and it looks like the cold temps are coming in right on cue.

Lostone
10-27-2009, 10:24 AM
I went for a hike yesterday. I wore shorts, a t shirt and a very light shell. I was comfortable at the base. When I got up to Allyn's lodge, I was a little surprised to see that there was ice over the puddles, and some was all the way down, on them.

Won't be long. 8)

007
10-27-2009, 02:57 PM
Win, if appropriate can someone post the plan of which trails will be covered first, prior to opening; weather contingent of course?

Hawk
10-27-2009, 03:20 PM
007, let me take a guess for the hell of it.
From the top:
Jester
Organgrinder
Deathspout
Lower Jester
Gondolier
Once they have that they ususally do:
Domino Chute
Middle Jester
Lower organgrinder
Then.....
Valley house traverse
Snowball
Spring fling

Where have you been dude....It's what they usually do. :roll:
Now that I have said this they will do something different. :wink:

win
10-27-2009, 03:25 PM
We are ready to go any time after Novermber 1st at Lincoln Peak. Snowmaking orientation and training is this week. Hopefully the temperaturs will allow us to start next week. We will start down Jester and then Downspout and then Organgrinder. As you know there can be quite a variance in temperatures at different elevations. The plan would be to have Jester to Allyn's, Downspout to Heaven's Gate and Organgrinder at least by opening day and we will try to make it to the bottom if we can. Otherwise we can download from Bravo. After that we will see whether we go down Birdland and Lower Organgrinder or move over to Snowball and Spring Fling. As we get into December we move the focus to the Gate House Pod.

We'll keep you posted as we begin.

mattlucas
10-27-2009, 06:22 PM
Win, please do not start making snow early just to watch it melt away like Sunday River and Killington want to do.

For all of my bitching, I'll take the devil I know and don't want to see Sugarbush cave to public pressure, just to waste 15K on late october snow.
Thanks in advance for sticking to your guns.

win
10-27-2009, 07:45 PM
Don't worry! We are not in the water recylcing business. We are ready to go the first of November if it makes sense, and we would like to open 11/21 if we can! The last three years we were open close to 160 days each year and that is a good goal to shoot for!

shadyjay
10-27-2009, 08:36 PM
Wonder how much those other resorts waste on making snow just so they can say they were open in October over the years, then have to close and the owners watching as the money melts away... but I doubt their owners are actually watching that in person.

Granted, it seems tempting espec this Oct when we had snow even in CT but with unpredictable October weather where it can be 30 one day and 70 the next... it just doesn't make economical sense. I'd rather see the mtn open and stay open for the long haul, which is what has been/is the game plan here.

Hawk
10-28-2009, 06:53 AM
Win, please do not start making snow early just to watch it melt away like Sunday River and Killington want to do.

For all of my bitching, I'll take the devil I know and don't want to see Sugarbush cave to public pressure, just to waste 15K on late october snow.
Thanks in advance for sticking to your guns.

:lol: This comes up every year and it always strikes me funny. No disrespect Matt but I skied SR two weeks ago top to bottom and it was simply excellent. They were open last weekend top to bottom in spite of the rain and are talking about opening this weekend also. Even though they may be taking a beating on the costs they look at it as a bennefit for their loyal customers and yes, great marketing. I guess if you were/are not part of an early skiing culture then you don't understand it.

I say this every year. It was skiing and I was out there doing it and not wishing I was doing it.
....and I am not the only one. There were several Bushies I saw. :wink:

gone.skiing
10-28-2009, 06:57 AM
No disrespect Matt but I skied SR two weeks ago top to bottom and it was simply excellent.

Amen. Whether it is worth it to the mountain only SR can decide that, but I would not beg them stay closed. It was good to be sliding in the middle of October.

skibum1321
10-28-2009, 07:17 AM
Win, please do not start making snow early just to watch it melt away like Sunday River and Killington want to do.

For all of my bitching, I'll take the devil I know and don't want to see Sugarbush cave to public pressure, just to waste 15K on late october snow.
Thanks in advance for sticking to your guns.

:lol: This comes up every year and it always strikes me funny. No disrespect Matt but I skied SR two weeks ago top to bottom and it was simply excellent. They were open last weekend top to bottom in spite of the rain and are talking about opening this weekend also. Even though they may be taking a beating on the costs they look at it as a bennefit for their loyal customers and yes, great marketing. I guess if you were/are not part of an early skiing culture then you don't understand it.

I say this every year. It was skiing and I was out there doing it and not wishing I was doing it.
....and I am not the only one. There were several Bushies I saw. :wink:
I'm on the other end of the spectrum. I just don't have fun sliding down 1 wide boring trail all day. I'd rather be out biking, running or doing just about anything else. Until the woods have some base or there are some fun bump runs, I'm downright bored at the mountain and wouldn't even consider buying a day pass. Having said that, I plan on skiing my first weekend on Thanksgiving weekend even though there probably won't be much open.

Hawk
10-28-2009, 08:34 AM
Win, please do not start making snow early just to watch it melt away like Sunday River and Killington want to do.

For all of my bitching, I'll take the devil I know and don't want to see Sugarbush cave to public pressure, just to waste 15K on late october snow.
Thanks in advance for sticking to your guns.

:lol: This comes up every year and it always strikes me funny. No disrespect Matt but I skied SR two weeks ago top to bottom and it was simply excellent. They were open last weekend top to bottom in spite of the rain and are talking about opening this weekend also. Even though they may be taking a beating on the costs they look at it as a bennefit for their loyal customers and yes, great marketing. I guess if you were/are not part of an early skiing culture then you don't understand it.

I say this every year. It was skiing and I was out there doing it and not wishing I was doing it.
....and I am not the only one. There were several Bushies I saw. :wink:
I'm on the other end of the spectrum. I just don't have fun sliding down 1 wide boring trail all day. I'd rather be out biking, running or doing just about anything else. Until the woods have some base or there are some fun bump runs, I'm downright bored at the mountain and wouldn't even consider buying a day pass. Having said that, I plan on skiing my first weekend on Thanksgiving weekend even though there probably won't be much open.
To each his own Skibum. But just so you know, it may have been one trail but is wasn't flat and boring. We skied bumps all day and I met up with all my old friends. After we beat out legs to a pulp the festivities went to the parking lot for a cookout. Then some of the group went out for a ride and others hiked to do trail "Maintanence". It's what you make of it. The only reason I bring it up every year is that I would love to do the same at the Bush. But I realize that it just is not in the overall mindset or plan at SB. :(

skibum1321
10-28-2009, 09:39 AM
Win, please do not start making snow early just to watch it melt away like Sunday River and Killington want to do.

For all of my bitching, I'll take the devil I know and don't want to see Sugarbush cave to public pressure, just to waste 15K on late october snow.
Thanks in advance for sticking to your guns.

:lol: This comes up every year and it always strikes me funny. No disrespect Matt but I skied SR two weeks ago top to bottom and it was simply excellent. They were open last weekend top to bottom in spite of the rain and are talking about opening this weekend also. Even though they may be taking a beating on the costs they look at it as a bennefit for their loyal customers and yes, great marketing. I guess if you were/are not part of an early skiing culture then you don't understand it.

I say this every year. It was skiing and I was out there doing it and not wishing I was doing it.
....and I am not the only one. There were several Bushies I saw. :wink:
I'm on the other end of the spectrum. I just don't have fun sliding down 1 wide boring trail all day. I'd rather be out biking, running or doing just about anything else. Until the woods have some base or there are some fun bump runs, I'm downright bored at the mountain and wouldn't even consider buying a day pass. Having said that, I plan on skiing my first weekend on Thanksgiving weekend even though there probably won't be much open.
To each his own Skibum. But just so you know, it may have been one trail but is wasn't flat and boring. We skied bumps all day and I met up with all my old friends. After we beat out legs to a pulp the festivities went to the parking lot for a cookout. Then some of the group went out for a ride and others hiked to do trail "Maintanence". It's what you make of it. The only reason I bring it up every year is that I would love to do the same at the Bush. But I realize that it just is not in the overall mindset or plan at SB. :(
Yeah, I'm definitely not knocking you guys for skiing early. Just not really my cup of tea.

Lostone
10-28-2009, 10:27 AM
For me... Just doing laps and getting conditioned, so I'll be ready.


Just think of it as this is the time that I tell you that I was skiing,and you can't say I wasn't, because you weren't there. :wink:

HowieT2
11-03-2009, 08:00 PM
speaking of snow guns, what happened with the fan gun demo last season?
will there be new fan guns this season?

007
11-03-2009, 09:13 PM
Looks like Ole' Man Winter is stopping by briefly to help out the Snowmaking Engineers on Thursday:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.047083&rlon=-72.119583&tlat=44.717917&blat=43.792917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=43&map.y=159

Just another couple of degrees lower in temperature......

Lostone
11-04-2009, 08:46 AM
Just a light covering of snow at the top. Seems to be a little heavier at the very top of Organgrinder.

And... Oh yes... steam coming from the compressor building. :D


(Before anyone gets the wrong idea, the snow at the top of OG is just the very top. Almost definitely, only blowover from Jester. :wink:


Still... :D

Insider
11-04-2009, 04:24 PM
The guns are going. Checkout the "Sights and Sounds" vid: http://www.sugarbush.com/snow-trails-conditions/live-mountain-update

win
11-05-2009, 09:27 PM
We've had a couple of good days of snowmaking and and are staying on Upper Jester tonight. tomorrow and as long as possbile tomorrow night. Then the temperatures are supposed to rise, and it looks like we will not have snowmaking temperatures for most of next week (but you never know!). We need about 5-7 days of good temperatures to get the upper mountain ready to ski, so hopefully late next week we will get those temperatures so we can spin the Bravo and Heaven's Gate lifts as planned on Saturday, November 21st.

Tin Woodsman
11-06-2009, 01:55 AM
Win - care to comment on the results of last season's testing program with the fan gun?

Lostone
11-06-2009, 07:45 AM
The fan gun was sitting at the start of the zip line, Wednesday.

win
11-06-2009, 11:30 AM
Generally speaking the fan gun was a plus. It is a nusiance moving it and a a sudden change in the wind can cause some problems. The guns likely works best mounted on a pole is a fixed location. We are keeping it this year and may look at some additionas purchases next spring. We have also purchased some additional nozzles for our towers this year.

Tin Woodsman
11-06-2009, 01:30 PM
Generally speaking the fan gun was a plus. It is a nusiance moving it and a a sudden change in the wind can cause some problems. The guns likely works best mounted on a pole is a fixed location. We are keeping it this year and may look at some additionas purchases next spring. We have also purchased some additional nozzles for our towers this year.

Great to hear.

I'd have to think that if placed correctly on wide, high traffic runs/areas like Spring Fling, Snowball, Birch, Inverness, Cruiser, Times Sq and the OG/Steins/Lower Downspout intersection at LP, they would be a wise investment indeed, allowing you to utilize your more scarce (and expensive) compressed air resources for other runs. Would a larger roll-out of this technology be predicated on full implementation of your approved plans for snowmaking water?

shadyjay
11-06-2009, 07:57 PM
Don't forget you need POWER!

When I made snow in CT, we primarily used fan guns, but also used traditional air/waters. Thing about fans is that they require power, which from investigating around the mountain, pretty sure isn't always available at every set of hydrants. Not that the power that I had to deal with in CT was any better... switching on a breaker box at each station required standing on one foot, and always carrying old school long fuses in your bibs next to a pair of fuse pullers. It was fun, I survived, but that mtn was sketchy!

Fans at high traffic areas previously mentioned would work good. Some fans also have their own compressors, so you could free up air for other trails/areas.

Tin Woodsman
11-06-2009, 09:27 PM
Don't forget you need POWER!

When I made snow in CT, we primarily used fan guns, but also used traditional air/waters. Thing about fans is that they require power, which from investigating around the mountain, pretty sure isn't always available at every set of hydrants. Not that the power that I had to deal with in CT was any better... switching on a breaker box at each station required standing on one foot, and always carrying old school long fuses in your bibs next to a pair of fuse pullers. It was fun, I survived, but that mtn was sketchy!

Fans at high traffic areas previously mentioned would work good. Some fans also have their own compressors, so you could free up air for other trails/areas.

That's exactly my point. Not sure if power is or is not an issue in those areas, but it sure as heck would consume a LOT less energy (and money) than compressing all that air, cooling it down and shoving it up hill.

ski_resort_observer
11-06-2009, 10:05 PM
This gets rehashed every year.
http://forums.skimrv.com/viewtopic.php?t=1776&highlight=snowmaking
http://forums.skimrv.com/viewtopic.php?t=1107&highlight=snowmaking

The Bush got the e-guns a couple of years because they use less energy. The Bush is restricted by the grid as to availible power, especially on cold nights. A couple of smaller wind turbines on Mt Ellen below the ridgeline would help a great deal IMHO. Taking out the tower guns and building small towers for fan guns would cost millions.

I was up at Attitash a couple of years ago checking out some of the newly installed fans. Talking to a couple of the mountain opps guys I'm not so sure these guns are better than the tower guns we use. They use alot of energy compared to an e-gun. Both Mt Snow and Attitash installed over 100 fan guns each. Can't help but notice they are not open either. Who hasn't seen the billboards? The guns are pretty, haveta admit.
http://forums.alpinezone.com/gallery/data/773/attitash1.jpg

http://forums.alpinezone.com/gallery/data/773/attitash2.jpg

When Peaks Resorts bought Attash and Mt Snow they spent millions buying and installing hundreds of fan guns on mini-towers. The Bush chose a diferent path. The Rock will probably never have snowmaking except for the troubled runouts near the base of the lift, a fan gun up there might be good there, so the Bush will never have 100% snowmaking. I can live with that just fine.

With the economy still hurting and the Bush in the middle of the Lincoln Peak expansion developement, the plate is pretty full financially.

Yard Sale
11-07-2009, 02:14 AM
Orion says hello. mmmmmmmmmm, stop . . . listen . . . . smell that. Winter is near.

Tin Woodsman
11-07-2009, 04:23 PM
This gets rehashed every year.
Indeed. And every year, the see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil brigade rides again.

[quote]
The Bush got the e-guns a couple of years because they use less energy.

Less energy than what? Less energy than the older technology air/water guns - sure. If you are stating that they use less power than a fan gun, then I'd need to see some proof of that. It takes a tremendous amount of energy to first compress and then cool air before it is sent a few thousand feet up hill. With the fan guns having a compressor on board, the air is already there. You need only plug them into a grid.



The Bush is restricted by the grid as to availible power, especially on cold nights. A couple of smaller wind turbines on Mt Ellen below the ridgeline would help a great deal IMHO.
It is my understanding that replacing air/water guns with fan guns would actually help in this regard by reducing the net power needed to make a given amount of snow.


Taking out the tower guns and building small towers for fan guns would cost millions.
Who is suggesting that they all get taken out? Only you are. Fan guns are ideal for wider runs at mid to lower elevations because of their superior throw, output and debottlenecking of your air compression plant at marginal temps (as you know, you need a lot more air for making snow at lower elevations with their often marginal wet bulb temps). They cost $30K each to purchase and install. Because of their superior throw and coverage when mounted on a pole, you would need fewer guns than the air/water types currently installed on those runs. For $1MM, you could surely cover all of Snowball and Spring Fling as well as the high traffic zones at North and South (Times Sq and the OG/Steins/Downspout mixing bowl). For another $1MM, you'd cover Cruiser and Inverness, and possibly some of Birch. That may even be conservative in terms of coverage. Moreover, you still own those low-e guns - you're not going to throw them out. So they could get redeployed on runs like Northstar, Which Way, Deathspout, Elbow and Rim Run. For X amount of investment, you're upgrading your snowmaking capabilities on twice the acreage.



I was up at Attitash a couple of years ago checking out some of the newly installed fans. Talking to a couple of the mountain opps guys I'm not so sure these guns are better than the tower guns we use. They use alot of energy compared to an e-gun. Both Mt Snow and Attitash installed over 100 fan guns each. Can't help but notice they are not open either. Who hasn't seen the billboards? The guns are pretty, haveta admit.
Attitash? You mean the resort in NH that gets about half the snowfall of Sugarbush where the base elevation is 700' and the summit is 500' LOWER than the top of the Valley House chair? That Attitash? One wonders how they could possibly be closed at this date with such natural advantages as that. As for what you heard from their mtn ops guys, can you share any details? What is the basis of comparison?


When Peaks Resorts bought Attash and Mt Snow they spent millions buying and installing hundreds of fan guns on mini-towers.
Correct - and Mt. Snow, the furthest south ski area in VT, immediately became a contender for having the longest season in the East, something they had never even thought about doing under previous ownership regimes.


The Bush chose a diferent path. The Rock will probably never have snowmaking except for the troubled runouts near the base of the lift, a fan gun up there might be good there, so the Bush will never have 100% snowmaking. I can live with that just fine. [quote]
I don't understand why you need to keep introducing strawmen. Who suggested that the Bush should expand coverage to Castlerock, let alone the rest of the mountain? With the exception of that bottom area of CR you mentioned and perhaps the Heavens Gate Traverse, I think they have a perfect level of coverage. It's their production on those covered trails (their intensity per acre) that is clearly lacking. That's the basis of the fan gun debate.

[quote]With the economy still hurting and the Bush in the middle of the Lincoln Peak expansion developement, the plate is pretty full financially.
The Bush appears to be primarily using other people's money to fund the next stage of their LP Village via the EB-5 visa program. They found the budget to invest in the less than critical asset that is the lightly-used Lincoln Limo. I would submit that having reliable conditions early season and after a thaw/freeze is about as critical to the SB skiing experience as you can get. Their big competitor to the South has finally woken up with respect to investment in their snowmaking infrastructure. Their big competitor to the North gets materially more natural snow and has a much stronger brand. If you want to entice people to drive that extra hour, it sure as hell isn't going to be a big red faux barn that does it.

If these guns didn't provide a benefit, why would Win be discussing the possible investment in more of them?

win
11-07-2009, 06:47 PM
The Cabin was a steal and paid for itself in year one! We have invested each year in snowmaking upgrades and will continue to do so. The fact that no resort in the East was open longer than us does say something about our snowmaking effectiveness I think! The only area that may have more natural snow if measured the same way we do it is our friend far to the North.

shadyjay
11-07-2009, 07:43 PM
The fact that no resort in the East was open longer than us does say something about our snowmaking effectiveness I think!

Heck yeah it does! And that late closing (early May) was despite the fact that we didn't have those characteristic big March snows and even April snows. It does help to blast a trail for quite a while if it means you can beat out the competition.

And oh yes, there's the quality aspect too... better than quantity. I'd rather have a few really good coverage trails than half of LP open but you have to maneuver around bare spots and rocks.


I've got that itch.... now just gotta pray for the cold to return, and SOON!

Tin Woodsman
11-07-2009, 09:11 PM
The Cabin was a steal and paid for itself in year one! We have invested each year in snowmaking upgrades and will continue to do so. The fact that no resort in the East was open longer than us does say something about our snowmaking effectiveness I think! The only area that may have more natural snow if measured the same way we do it is our friend far to the North.

Glad to hear the Cabin paid for itself, but those are pretty cheap. The machine it's riding on the more expensive piece of equipment, no?

As for being open longer, I'm not sure that says anything about your snowmaking effectiveness. No resorts who receive more snow than you (Stowe, Bolton, Smuggs, Jay) go for late season skiing, and I'm not sure than an extra hour constitutes much to crow about anyway. And comparing yourself to Killington's hamfisted policies in recent years isn't saying much. Regardless, even with a wildly underpowered and inefficient snowmaking plant, you could leave the guns on for days at a time and still build a deep base. As you well know, the times when snowmaking matters are early in the season and right after a thaw/freeze. Without this firepower, you have a limited ability to expand or resurface terrain very quickly. Absent significant natural snows, we will once again witness a painstaking march of available terrain down the mountain, reaching the base long after many competitors are top to bottom. If there are material snowmaking investments this year, I'd love to hear about them.

I'd also be interested in the basis of your contention that perhaps only Jay receives more natural snow than SB. From both a meteorological and topographical perspective, that's highly improbable. The resorts north of I-89 simply get more from all that wrap around and upslope. Not that SB is too shabby in that regard and man do I love the mountain, but they do get a bit less.

HowieT2
11-08-2009, 02:59 PM
The Cabin was a steal and paid for itself in year one! We have invested each year in snowmaking upgrades and will continue to do so. The fact that no resort in the East was open longer than us does say something about our snowmaking effectiveness I think! The only area that may have more natural snow if measured the same way we do it is our friend far to the North.

Glad to hear the Cabin paid for itself, but those are pretty cheap. The machine it's riding on the more expensive piece of equipment, no?

As for being open longer, I'm not sure that says anything about your snowmaking effectiveness. No resorts who receive more snow than you (Stowe, Bolton, Smuggs, Jay) go for late season skiing, and I'm not sure than an extra hour constitutes much to crow about anyway. And comparing yourself to Killington's hamfisted policies in recent years isn't saying much. Regardless, even with a wildly underpowered and inefficient snowmaking plant, you could leave the guns on for days at a time and still build a deep base. As you well know, the times when snowmaking matters are early in the season and right after a thaw/freeze. Without this firepower, you have a limited ability to expand or resurface terrain very quickly. Absent significant natural snows, we will once again witness a painstaking march of available terrain down the mountain, reaching the base long after many competitors are top to bottom. If there are material snowmaking investments this year, I'd love to hear about them.

I'd also be interested in the basis of your contention that perhaps only Jay receives more natural snow than SB. From both a meteorological and topographical perspective, that's highly improbable. The resorts north of I-89 simply get more from all that wrap around and upslope. Not that SB is too shabby in that regard and man do I love the mountain, but they do get a bit less.

My understanding is they got the whole cat for next to 'nothing and just had to get it back east and fix it up a little.

agreed the issue is getting the mtn open and recovering from the inevitable thaws. I hope we see NL open before the end of january this season.

I'd like to see a fan gun where lower ripcord meets lower paradise towards the HG. That section after the intersection gets skied off by the lift tower.

Tin Woodsman
11-08-2009, 11:35 PM
My understanding is they got the whole cat for next to 'nothing and just had to get it back east and fix it up a little.
Well that certainly helps returns.



agreed the issue is getting the mtn open and recovering from the inevitable thaws. I hope we see NL open before the end of january this season.

I'd like to see a fan gun where lower ripcord meets lower paradise towards the HG. That section after the intersection gets skied off by the lift tower.

I think it's certainly worth exploring whether, at a minimum, those sorts of wide, high-traffic zones are worth investing in a few fan guns.

vonski
11-11-2009, 01:42 PM
Anyone have any thoughts on the guns going back on the next couple of nights at least way up top. The various forecasts are across the board. It is not looking promising to get to the bottom anytime soon! Uggh! But at least I did see Win mention about downloading on Bravo if need be. Maybe Organgrinder can get some snow since there will be no chance to go to the bottom. I can deal with laps on grinder and jester to deathspout. It looks like from the time frame for the guns on last week that Jester should be close to being done.

summitchallenger
11-11-2009, 02:38 PM
Anyone have any thoughts on the guns going back on the next couple of nights at least way up top. The various forecasts are across the board. It is not looking promising to get to the bottom anytime soon! Uggh! But at least I did see Win mention about downloading on Bravo if need be. Maybe Organgrinder can get some snow since there will be no chance to go to the bottom. I can deal with laps on grinder and jester to deathspout. It looks like from the time frame for the guns on last week that Jester should be close to being done.

This is when I wish that we had another mid-mountain escape route to HG besides the so-called Deathspout. And to think that if we were doing early season at:

http://www.boston.com/travel/explorene/specials/ski/blog/IMG_4265.jpg

http://www.clubxtaski.com/Mount_Ellen.jpg

We'd have more options...theoretically.

vonski
11-11-2009, 03:02 PM
Anyone have any thoughts on the guns going back on the next couple of nights at least way up top. The various forecasts are across the board. It is not looking promising to get to the bottom anytime soon! Uggh! But at least I did see Win mention about downloading on Bravo if need be. Maybe Organgrinder can get some snow since there will be no chance to go to the bottom. I can deal with laps on grinder and jester to deathspout. It looks like from the time frame for the guns on last week that Jester should be close to being done.

This is when I wish that we had another mid-mountain escape route to HG besides the so-called Deathspout. And to think that if we were doing early season at:

]We'd have more options...theoretically.

Worms out! I personally wish it was not such a definitive thing. Could they turn the guns on at Ellen at the same time as South and start buiding the base over at Ellen as well. Possibly, because then a last minute switch could be made due to mother nature and her curveballs. We could then give the Claybrook owners cutsies at the lift, down load only side though. :wink: :lol: to keep them happy. I understand the need but that extra 500 feet of verticle between the base of the upper lifts could pose some problems this month. But wait this is New England. doing my snow dance!

ski_resort_observer
11-11-2009, 04:15 PM
As for being open longer, I'm not sure that says anything about your snowmaking effectiveness

The Bush's MO of putting extra snow on the designated spring trails IS a big factor in staying open late. Win has mentioned this in here several times.

Tin Woodsman
11-11-2009, 06:01 PM
As for being open longer, I'm not sure that says anything about your snowmaking effectiveness

The Bush's MO of putting extra snow on the designated spring trails IS a big factor in staying open late. Win has mentioned this in here several times.

The Bush's MO of putting extra snow on the designated spring trails is a policy decision - they are simply turning the taps on for an extended period of time. It has very little to do with the effectiveness, from an output and intensity per acre perspective, of the snowmaking system. The most effective snowmaking systems possess the ability to expand terrain and/or resurface many trails in as short a period as possible. Sunday River has that. Killington has that. Okemo has that. SB does not. If Killington's mgmt made the decision to be a contender in the late season skiing business again, they could bury Superstar in 20 ft of snow pretty quickly and make your claims re: Stein's look pretty silly.

gone.skiing
11-11-2009, 06:39 PM
SB has a number of assets, snowmaking capacity is not one of them. Reasons have been discussed a number of times (power, water, equipment), whatever the reason(s) is, it takes forever to recover from thaw/freeze or expand terrain.

Lostone
11-11-2009, 06:39 PM
Sugarbush could make snow much longer into the season and have more terrain open, at the end of the season. Problem is, as discussed many times, it really doesn't pay.

Nobody shows up at the end of the season. Hard to tell Win he should put out a lot more money to make more snow, when it is proved not to be financially worthwhile.

Tin Woodsman
11-11-2009, 06:52 PM
Sugarbush could make snow much longer into the season and have more terrain open, at the end of the season. Problem is, as discussed many times, it really doesn't pay.

Nobody shows up at the end of the season. Hard to tell Win he should put out a lot more money to make more snow, when it is proved not to be financially worthwhile.

Lostone -

What you and others are confusing is season length with snowmaking effectiveness. Continually bringing up new strawmen serves only to confuse the issue. Having the longest season is really more of a marketing issue than a mtn ops one. When you really need snowmaking firepower is not to blow snow on a trail for two weeks in Feb so you can extend the season for a few weeks in May. Nor do you really need it for a few cold nights in October so you can say you were first to open with a white ribbon of death. No - when you really need it is in mid-November to mid-December when you are busting your ass to expand terrain as quickly as possible so that people will feel good about committing to a fully priced X-Mas or MLK week trip. You also need it periodically throughout the season when you get the inevitable New England thaw/freeze cycle and your trails are going to be bulletproof until something else covers them.

My gosh - can't we at least have an honest debate about what SB is good and bad at doing? As gone.skiing says, SB has a ton going for it, but snowmaking firepower is not one of them. If you think it's acceptable to wait for snowmaking to crawl down the mountain into early December due to lack of air compression while competitors are all top to bottom, be my guest. I can't imagine you think that's an optimal state of affairs. What Win should be investing money in is to get maximum terrain open for the critical holiday periods and to recover from thaws as quickly as humanly possible. I'd like to see you construct a case arguing that those goals are not worthwhile.

Lostone
11-11-2009, 07:35 PM
I think most agree it would be better to have a better snowmaking system. That would have to be a very large cost, so I don't see it happening unless you can show a return.

In the past number of years, there have been many improvements in the type of guns, to make better use out of the system that was there, but while ASC did large improvements to the system, that was there, it wasn't enough to compete with K-mart's system.

It would be great to have a system that could blanket the whole mountain in a night... but I really don't see it happening.

You're right. Snowmaking isn't the top of the Sugarbush edge. Most of the places we like to ski (and by we, I'm saying you and me... maybe a few others?) don't have snowmaking. And that's a good thing.



At the same time, I got on the lift with a woman from MRG, last April. She said she was from MRG, and they had real snow. I replied that I was from here, and we were really open.

But no. We don't have the system that K-mart, SR, or Mount Snow has. I don't ski here for the snowmaking. That's when I'm doing laps. :wink:

Tin Woodsman
11-11-2009, 08:06 PM
I think most agree it would be better to have a better snowmaking system. That would have to be a very large cost, so I don't see it happening unless you can show a return.
Whether it's a "very large cost" or not depends on your goals. If you want to completely revamp the system (probably necessary in the long-term), or dramatically expand coverage (not at all necessary), then that would be expensive indeed. But what if you want to invest in something like fan gun technology in selected areas of terrain that it is ideally suited for? You can do that in much smaller increments and expand, or not, as results dictate.



In the past number of years, there have been many improvements in the type of guns, to make better use out of the system that was there, but while ASC did large improvements to the system, that was there, it wasn't enough to compete with K-mart's system.
They will never have K-Mart's system, nor do they need to.



It would be great to have a system that could blanket the whole mountain in a night... but I really don't see it happening.
No one has such a system, nor is one needed.



But no. We don't have the system that K-mart, SR, or Mount Snow has. I don't ski here for the snowmaking. That's when I'm doing laps. :wink:

SB doesn't have those types of systems, nor does it need to. It gets more snow and has less skier density than any of those mountains, so the need is less intense. That said, there is a long, long way between the SB system and the ones you've named. Many millions of dollars could be spent, and you'd still be short of what those other mountains have - and that's OK. What I would say isn't OK is that SB doesn't even have a system that is sufficient for its own aspirations and market positioning.

I don't ski at SB for a pretty new lodge or a big red barn at the base, but I do it anyway. And of course I understand the value those structures have, but there are many ways to invest in and improve your product.

HowieT2
11-11-2009, 09:04 PM
please excuse the beating of this dead horse, but I can't resist:

I don't see the decision to blast snow on Stein's for days on end to create depth into the spring whilst other areas of the mtn, to wit, NL, are closed, to be a virtue. and again, while they don't have the capacity to do both at the same time, they chose to do it this way because, it was more efficient (than moving operations to NL to get that open and then returning to Stein's to add depth to extend the season). certainly it's fair to assume that the cost of this decision is far less than the cost of adding significant snowmaking capacity.
Furthermore, the decision did not result in making any less snow overall but only avoided the cost of moving the equipment back and forth (and whatever else is required to move the capacity). It would seem to this, admittedly poorly informed observer, that the cost of adding such capacity would not be that great.

and Tin, last season, we weren't even talking about December, but well into January before NL was open because of this (check the thread from last season). Not that I need to remind any of you, but NL is a significant portion of LP, without which basically all regular skiers are restricted to superbravo, CR, and HG lifts and severely restricting access to certain off piste areas, thereby crowding the rest of the mtn and lifts. So whether you want to ski the neglected areas or not, it affects you. just sayin'

I checked an NL didn't open until 1/15/09.

shadyjay
11-11-2009, 09:56 PM
I checked an NL didn't open until 1/15/09.


I have kept a log of every day I worked during winter 08/09 and where I was stationed and can assure you that North Lynx began the 08/09 season on 12/23/08, I remember quite well as it was my 31st b-day and after my shift, I drove to CT for the holiday. I was the first rider on the lift for the season, obviously cause I was the top operator. Just a couple days before, we were getting the lift ready, digging out and installing the seat cushions. Right around that time, we got a considerable amount of new natural snow and that permitted us to open, way before one gun was positioned up there. Alas, a Christmas warmup occured and when I went to CT for the holiday, I read that by Christmas day, the Lynx had closed. My next record of having the Lynx open was on 1/17/09, and given that I was regularly assigned to that lift (or to Gate House), then the 1/15 opening makes sense... but it was the lift's 2nd opening of the season, albeit the major opening since she remained in place until April.

The Lynx definitely attracts quite the crowd and things seem to flow better when its open.

007
11-11-2009, 10:13 PM
The Sun likes NL trails, and gobbles man made snow for lunch until the ground becomes 24/7 permafrost. Making snow early season in the shady spots (Steins) is longer lasting.

HowieT2
11-11-2009, 10:26 PM
I checked an NL didn't open until 1/15/09.


I have kept a log of every day I worked during winter 08/09 and where I was stationed and can assure you that North Lynx began the 08/09 season on 12/23/08, I remember quite well as it was my 31st b-day and after my shift, I drove to CT for the holiday. I was the first rider on the lift for the season, obviously cause I was the top operator. Just a couple days before, we were getting the lift ready, digging out and installing the seat cushions. Right around that time, we got a considerable amount of new natural snow and that permitted us to open, way before one gun was positioned up there. Alas, a Christmas warmup occured and when I went to CT for the holiday, I read that by Christmas day, the Lynx had closed. My next record of having the Lynx open was on 1/17/09, and given that I was regularly assigned to that lift (or to Gate House), then the 1/15 opening makes sense... but it was the lift's 2nd opening of the season, albeit the major opening since she remained in place until April.

The Lynx definitely attracts quite the crowd and things seem to flow better when its open.

here's the thread from last season. http://forums.skimrv.com/viewtopic.php?t=1808&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15

I think you made my point

Tin Woodsman
11-11-2009, 11:33 PM
The Sun likes NL trails, and gobbles man made snow for lunch until the ground becomes 24/7 permafrost. Making snow early season in the shady spots (Steins) is longer lasting.
I'm sorry, but I find that rationale to be flawed when you're talking about a period that is within weeks of the winter solstice. The sun doesn't like anything in VT from Thanksgiving until MLK day.

Considering how important NL is to the mountain in many ways (Birch is key cruising terrain, NL lift accesses lots of popular off-piste), I'm surprised than an effort isn't made to blast it earlier. Steins is certainly core expert terrain, but it is skiable by only a small % of SB skiers and need not be buried 5' deep early in the season. There will be plenty of time through Presidents' Day weekend to build up the base there.

Lostone
11-12-2009, 06:52 AM
If there is sun anywhere on the mountain, it can be found at North Lynx. And it both keeps the ground warmer, and does a job on any snow up there.

Hawk
11-12-2009, 07:37 AM
Every year the same thing.......but it is a fun thread at least for me. :lol:
Tin has some good points and as usual like last year I disagree with Howie.
I will trade NL for spring skiing on Steins any day. In fact the length of season is a direct correlation with the amount of snow on Steins. But I would not say that this is for a small percentage of skiers Tin. Snowball and Spring Fling were open until the second to last weekend if I remember correctly. They also got the extended blast like Steins so there were options. My point is that depending on your personal ability and preferences this debate is subjective and there is no true right and wrong. Hell most people put their skis away at the end of March and say the season is over. So we are talking about people who ski to the end and love spring vs Mid winter skiers.

I will agree that snowmaking is a major factor in the success of a mountain. Whether you like it or not the mass majority of skiers are beginner and intermediate and like machine blown snow and groomers. I will leave you with this. I guy from Killington came to Sunday River and knew the absolute necessity of snowmaking. He took this little 4 lift mountain and made it into one of the largest skier visit areas in the East in about 10 years. This was the original philosophy before the greed set in. I saw this 1st hand and it is the truth. Snowmaking capacity is key for growth in skier visits.

Tin Woodsman
11-12-2009, 11:51 AM
If there is sun anywhere on the mountain, it can be found at North Lynx. And it both keeps the ground warmer, and does a job on any snow up there.
The sun also likes Gate House, which despite its lower elevation is an area of focus for snowmaking ops. The reason of course is that that GH is critical terrain for lower level skiers. The importance of a particular terrain pod matters, regardless of its aspect. While the sun likes NL, that issue is very much minimized in the weeks surrounding the solar minimum when you'd be making snow. I'd argue that the benefits of having NL open by X-Mas are generally much more significant than deepening the base of Stein's at that time of year from 2' to 6'. You'll have plenty of time later in the season to blow the glacier on Stein's.

Tin Woodsman
11-12-2009, 11:57 AM
Every year the same thing.......but it is a fun thread at least for me. :lol:
Tin has some good points and as usual like last year I disagree with Howie.
I will trade NL for spring skiing on Steins any day. In fact the length of season is a direct correlation with the amount of snow on Steins.
See my point below. It's not an either or situation - you can have both. We all know that there are many cold days in February and March where the mtn doesn't make snow by choice - by that time of the year the base is sufficient and it would be a waste of money. There is no reason that the Stein's glacier has to be built in mid-December when it could just as easily be built in January, February or March.



But I would not say that this is for a small percentage of skiers Tin. Snowball and Spring Fling were open until the second to last weekend if I remember correctly. They also got the extended blast like Steins so there were options. My point is that depending on your personal ability and preferences this debate is subjective and there is no true right and wrong. Hell most people put their skis away at the end of March and say the season is over. So we are talking about people who ski to the end and love spring vs Mid winter skiers.
I was speaking solely about Steins. The % of SB skiers who will ski it is small vs. the % who will use the NL lift on a given day. I agree that building a deep base for Spring ops is important. No question. What I'm questioning is the prioritizing the deep base building on a run like Stein's before NL is even open. There's always time for base building later. Always.



I will agree that snowmaking is a major factor in the success of a mountain. Whether you like it or not the mass majority of skiers are beginner and intermediate and like machine blown snow and groomers. I will leave you with this. I guy from Killington came to Sunday River and knew the absolute necessity of snowmaking. He took this little 4 lift mountain and made it into one of the largest skier visit areas in the East in about 10 years. This was the original philosophy before the greed set in. I saw this 1st hand and it is the truth. Snowmaking capacity is key for growth in skier visits.
Truth. Snowmaking capacity leads to more reliable conditions during critical early season holiday weeks and right after the inevitable thaws. That matters in the East, and it is unquestionably an area where SB falls short, despite the real progress it has made in recent years. SB is, in my view, the best mountain in the East but let's just call a spade a spade on this matter.

Lostone
11-12-2009, 12:05 PM
Understanding that the head of snowmaking never asks my opinion, I have to say the direct sunlight is much stronger on NL than any place on Gatehouse, other than Sleeper Chutes.

Also, it is essential to get Gatehouse open as we have very little green areas, and the blues off there are milder than any others. Not much to probably anyone here, but I've been stopped on Murphy's, and asked how to get to a blue trail.

Not disagreeing that North Lynx is important, but their opinion was that it was more cost effective to finish work on Stein's before moving.

vonski
11-12-2009, 12:46 PM
I agree with Tin. Get the mountain open as much as possible then go back to Steins and Snowball and springfling after Feb vaca week and build the bases up for spring. How many man hours are we really saving by having to bring the hoses back over there? I think perception might be better as well for spring skiers as one will see the later season snowmaking on those trails and totally realize the point is to build up for the spring as folks will be asking gee why making snow on those trails now? Answer being it is so you can ski till May!!!!

Aside: Somebody tell Win to go on vacation right now. We need something to change this warm pattern. And he always says that when he goes out of town it snows!!!! :wink:

Hawk
11-12-2009, 01:01 PM
Alright I agree that the build up can wait. Something else to consider is that the expansion of terrain was slowed last year because of the thaw that happened around New Years. They spent some time resurfacing before they got to NL.

Tin Woodsman
11-12-2009, 02:21 PM
I think there are two issues here. One is a matter of priorities - when to deepen certain runs that are perfectly covered vs. expand terrain to important areas. I'm sure mtn ops has their reasons, which may in part be financial. That said, the far larger point IMO is the fact that they had to make that decision at all. If you are going to consider yourself among the elite resorts in the East, I would think you'd want to have the ability to deepen Steins AND get Birch open at the same time. This gets us back to the fan gun argument insofar as there throw is so long, you don't need to drag hoses hither and yon for optimal placement halfway out on the trail. I'm sure they require work to get going and to maintain, but the hoses aren't part of that. We've all seen from afar how the snowmaking crew stuggles with that stuff. It seems to me, as an admittedly uneducated observer, that your time from decision to first snow made would be much shorter in a world in which you're dealing with tower mounted fans.

Whatever the case, I would think that, at a minimum, all things being equal it should be a goal to have every pod with snowmaking open for the season by X-mas break. That is extremely difficult to accomplish with the limitations currently in place.

Hawk
11-12-2009, 03:22 PM
I've got it. Screw the new guest services lodge and build a new snow making system. :shock:
Who cares about all those people who need lessons and rentals anyway. :roll: :wink:

007
11-12-2009, 03:29 PM
Tin-

Putting aside our difference of opinion re: Sun/Shade/Solstice/Ground/Freeze/Thaw conditions in Dec.; is there any known limitation for available H2O and electric power? Seems that these precious resources might only be available in daily doses, finite volumes, and limited quantities, but not being a snowmaker by any stretch I wouldn't know.....

One could suppose that these resources, if limited, could be redirected at will if not plentiful enough to be applied simultaneously throughout the area as some would like to see.

Wonder if there is any chance of independant solar panels and batteries powering the fan jets, if they were installed on the Sunny side of NL... Photovoltaic technology should be up to snuff in this day and age.

Bond

007
11-12-2009, 03:35 PM
I've got it. Screw the new guest services lodge and build a new snow making system. :shock:
Who cares about all those people who need lessons and rentals anyway. :roll: :wink:

As I gather my rentals and sign up for a lesson I am deeply wounded.... :!:
Suppose they could just quadruple the season pass and day pass prices to have snow making year round under glass! : )
A lil' Dubai in Warren, VT? ; )

Fourwide
11-12-2009, 03:39 PM
Tin Woodsman wrote: "Whatever the case, I would think that, at a minimum, all things being equal it should be a goal to have every pod with snowmaking open for the season by X-mas break. That is extremely difficult to accomplish with the limitations currently in place."

While I certainly don't understand all the operational and financial considerations, I absolutely agree that, if the choice is between blowing enough to open Lynx (and that's really Birch and Moonshine, right--no guns on Sunrise?) and deepening the Stein's base, the mountain should choose the former. I'm pretty sure nothing could have saved last New Years, but not having Lynx open for MLK was a big problem.

vonski
11-12-2009, 03:51 PM
Tin Woodsman wrote: "Whatever the case, I would think that, at a minimum, all things being equal it should be a goal to have every pod with snowmaking open for the season by X-mas break. That is extremely difficult to accomplish with the limitations currently in place."

While I certainly don't understand all the operational and financial considerations, I absolutely agree that, if the choice is between blowing enough to open Lynx (and that's really Birch and Moonshine, right--no guns on Sunrise?) and deepening the Stein's base, the mountain should choose the former. I'm pretty sure nothing could have saved last New Years, but not having Lynx open for MLK was a big problem.

There are hydrants on Sunrise as I recall.

win
11-12-2009, 04:06 PM
I will check the record but I thought North Lynx was open by MLK. We did have a rain freeze that weekend if I recall correctly, and we might have shut for a day for that reason. We also make snow on Sunrise. I agree with trying to get all the pods open by Christmas if possible.

Now turning to the moment. Mother Nature is not being very nice. The next week' forecast doesn't look good for snow making. Fortunately, the investment we made in Upper Jester is holding together nicely, but we won't be able to run any guns for several days unless the forecast changes. Think cold and then think snow!

HowieT2
11-12-2009, 05:06 PM
This has been an entertaining discussion. I'm stuck at home with swine flu courtesy of my daughter who contracted it despite being vaccinated ( thank you big pharma). Not so bad so far and the wifey went out and got me a new ski helmet to play with.
Anyway, back to the topic, since we now all are on the same page, to wit, getting the mtn fully open is important and shouldn't be postponed to build spring base on steins, how much would it cost to do so. My understanding is the current setup would necessitate moving equipment from one part of the mtn to the other and then back again. This would require a lot of manpower and some lost opportunity to make snow. But what would it cost to have the capability to switch without moving equipment? So that they could turn off snow making on one area and turn it on somewhere else. You wouldn't need more water or power since you are only using one at a time. It doesn't seem like it would be a huge capital investment. I mean you could blanket the base area with fan guns for 150-200k. I might be totally wrong about this and just delirious from my fever, but for that money I would think it's a good investment. Not my money though.

007
11-12-2009, 06:25 PM
This has been an entertaining discussion. I'm stuck at home with swine flu courtesy of my daughter who contracted it despite being vaccinated ( thank you big pharma). Not so bad so far and the wifey went out and got me a new ski helmet to play with.
Anyway, back to the topic, since we now all are on the same page, to wit, getting the mtn fully open is important and shouldn't be postponed to build spring base on steins, how much would it cost to do so. My understanding is the current setup would necessitate moving equipment from one part of the mtn to the other and then back again. This would require a lot of manpower and some lost opportunity to make snow. But what would it cost to have the capability to switch without moving equipment? So that they could turn off snow making on one area and turn it on somewhere else. You wouldn't need more water or power since you are only using one at a time. It doesn't seem like it would be a huge capital investment. I mean you could blanket the base area with fan guns for 150-200k. I might be totally wrong about this and just delirious from my fever, but for that money I would think it's a good investment. Not my money though.

On a positive note, you're getting the flu done and out of the way before the snow is on the ground, man made or otherwise.
You make a good point about adding equipment and reducing manpower to relocate same; although there is an increased maintenance factor to also consider.
The fan jets themselves can be pricey, and not sure of the amount of area each one can cover. While we're all spending OP$, here's a link for snow making equipment shopping:
http://www.chssnowmakers.com/Classifieds.htm

Tin Woodsman
11-12-2009, 08:28 PM
Tin-

Putting aside our difference of opinion re: Sun/Shade/Solstice/Ground/Freeze/Thaw conditions in Dec.; is there any known limitation for available H2O and electric power? Seems that these precious resources might only be available in daily doses, finite volumes, and limited quantities, but not being a snowmaker by any stretch I wouldn't know.....

One could suppose that these resources, if limited, could be redirected at will if not plentiful enough to be applied simultaneously throughout the area as some would like to see.

Wonder if there is any chance of independant solar panels and batteries powering the fan jets, if they were installed on the Sunny side of NL... Photovoltaic technology should be up to snuff in this day and age.

Bond
As I understand (with all the caveats that implies), the primary bottleneck is air/electric power. It takes a lot of power to compress the air for air/water guns and then cool it down before it gets up the hill. Some supporting evidence of the air being the bottleneck would be occasions in recent years when SB has rented diesel compressors to supplement their plant when a good snowmaking window came after a warmer early season. When they really needed to go all out in an effort to expand terrain for the busy holidays, they brought in the diesels. Had water been the primary constraint, there would have been no need for extra compressor capacity. While I know there are steps they can take to increase their water supply (some of which have been approved), it will be more expensive to increase air capacity. Then you have to also look at the quality of pipe installed by ASC - I've heard mixed reviews and wonder whether that is a constraint as well. Obviously I need to do more research regarding power consumption of fan technology vs. air/water, but intuitively it would seem to me that the former would be the better way to go. It is the large up front fixed cost ($30K per install) that is the primary deterrent, or so I've read/heard.

Tin Woodsman
11-12-2009, 08:30 PM
Tin Woodsman wrote: "Whatever the case, I would think that, at a minimum, all things being equal it should be a goal to have every pod with snowmaking open for the season by X-mas break. That is extremely difficult to accomplish with the limitations currently in place."

While I certainly don't understand all the operational and financial considerations, I absolutely agree that, if the choice is between blowing enough to open Lynx (and that's really Birch and Moonshine, right--no guns on Sunrise?) and deepening the Stein's base, the mountain should choose the former. I'm pretty sure nothing could have saved last New Years, but not having Lynx open for MLK was a big problem.

There are hydrants on Sunrise as I recall.

There are. They are used once a year, apparently, when all other snowmaking trails are deemed to have sufficient coverage. From what I've seen over the years, Sunrise is absolutely the last trail that gets the guns.

Tin Woodsman
11-12-2009, 08:39 PM
This has been an entertaining discussion. I'm stuck at home with swine flu courtesy of my daughter who contracted it despite being vaccinated ( thank you big pharma). Not so bad so far and the wifey went out and got me a new ski helmet to play with.
Anyway, back to the topic, since we now all are on the same page, to wit, getting the mtn fully open is important and shouldn't be postponed to build spring base on steins, how much would it cost to do so. My understanding is the current setup would necessitate moving equipment from one part of the mtn to the other and then back again. This would require a lot of manpower and some lost opportunity to make snow. But what would it cost to have the capability to switch without moving equipment? So that they could turn off snow making on one area and turn it on somewhere else. You wouldn't need more water or power since you are only using one at a time. It doesn't seem like it would be a huge capital investment. I mean you could blanket the base area with fan guns for 150-200k. I might be totally wrong about this and just delirious from my fever, but for that money I would think it's a good investment. Not my money though.
I think it would take a lot less than $150-200K to cover the base area. These things produce massive quantities of snow and I think you'd need one to the lookers' left of Bravo, one near the North end of the GH lodge, and one further on towards SB Village on the other side of the GH lift. There a lot of good info at this link http://www.ratnik.com/snowmaking.html to walk you through some of the basics, but it seems that fan guns can produce between 3x and 6x the volume of snow (or at least utilize that multiple of water) as compared to traditional air/water systems for a given amount of energy. At $30K per install, that's under $100K.

HowieT2
11-12-2009, 09:13 PM
Tin-

Putting aside our difference of opinion re: Sun/Shade/Solstice/Ground/Freeze/Thaw conditions in Dec.; is there any known limitation for available H2O and electric power? Seems that these precious resources might only be available in daily doses, finite volumes, and limited quantities, but not being a snowmaker by any stretch I wouldn't know.....

One could suppose that these resources, if limited, could be redirected at will if not plentiful enough to be applied simultaneously throughout the area as some would like to see.

Wonder if there is any chance of independant solar panels and batteries powering the fan jets, if they were installed on the Sunny side of NL... Photovoltaic technology should be up to snuff in this day and age.

Bond
As I understand (with all the caveats that implies), the primary bottleneck is air/electric power. It takes a lot of power to compress the air for air/water guns and then cool it down before it gets up the hill. Some supporting evidence of the air being the bottleneck would be occasions in recent years when SB has rented diesel compressors to supplement their plant when a good snowmaking window came after a warmer early season. When they really needed to go all out in an effort to expand terrain for the busy holidays, they brought in the diesels. Had water been the primary constraint, there would have been no need for extra compressor capacity. While I know there are steps they can take to increase their water supply (some of which have been approved), it will be more expensive to increase air capacity. Then you have to also look at the quality of pipe installed by ASC - I've heard mixed reviews and wonder whether that is a constraint as well. Obviously I need to do more research regarding power consumption of fan technology vs. air/water, but intuitively it would seem to me that the former would be the better way to go. It is the large up front fixed cost ($30K per install) that is the primary deterrent, or so I've read/heard.

they rented those compressors before they got the low e guns. I think they reduced the compressors they needed after installing the low e's because they require less air and therefore less power to compress the air.
I agree that it would seem the fan guns with on board compressors would be more efficient. But if I recall a thread from last year, someone with some knowledge indicated that the low e-guns are more efficient at lower temperatures. Either way I would think for adding incremental capacity, the fan guns are the way to go.

shadyjay
11-12-2009, 10:34 PM
While I certainly don't understand all the operational and financial considerations, I absolutely agree that, if the choice is between blowing enough to open Lynx (and that's really Birch and Moonshine, right--no guns on Sunrise?) and deepening the Stein's base, the mountain should choose the former. I'm pretty sure nothing could have saved last New Years, but not having Lynx open for MLK was a big problem.


Birch and Sunrise have hydrants, installed at the time of Bravo's relocation there. Morning Star (liftline) has no guns. And Moonshine, over to the right of Spring Fling definitely has no hydrants.

Tin Woodsman
11-13-2009, 04:33 AM
they rented those compressors before they got the low e guns. I think they reduced the compressors they needed after installing the low e's because they require less air and therefore less power to compress the air.
I agree that it would seem the fan guns with on board compressors would be more efficient. But if I recall a thread from last year, someone with some knowledge indicated that the low e-guns are more efficient at lower temperatures. Either way I would think for adding incremental capacity, the fan guns are the way to go.
Right. I'm sure there is an extremely complex matrix of puts and takes at different temperatures, humidities, trails widths, systems and budgets - it is unquestionably more complex than I'm making it out to be at times. But the evidence seems to indicate that wide, lower elevation (read: warmer) runs would be a good place to consider them.

Fourwide
11-13-2009, 07:39 AM
Shadyjay wrote: "Birch and Sunrise have hydrants, installed at the time of Bravo's relocation there. Morning Star (liftline) has no guns. And Moonshine, over to the right of Spring Fling definitely has no hydrants."

Sorry, I meant Morningstar, not Moonshine. Morningstar must get some misdirected manmade from Birch, as it usually has pretty good cover. Agree with Tin Woodsman--I never see the guns working on Sunrise. That trail could use some cover at the top.

Yard Sale
11-13-2009, 11:39 AM
I think Mr. Woodsman presents a very srtong and well stated case for altering strategy to open more terrain earlier and impact more of the mountain and subsequently more skiers earlier in the season. With this point I am in full agreement.

The only risk, or at least the greatest risk as I see it, is to what degree a shift in strategy is employed. I have no idea what it takes nor how long it takes to get Snowball, Steins, Spring Fling, Downspout, etc. loaded for spring skiing. But if by some twist of fate, such as spring arriving in late Feb early March like last year, and Steins atc. isn't capable of going the distance for the spring, can you imagine the outcry of discontent that would be loud and oh yes, very longwinded.

I too remember looking up at NL even with pretty significant coverage of natural on it and thinking: Why isn't it and when will it be open? However, at this point in the discussion I am not sure enough credit is being given to mtn. ops for, despite stated system limitations, enduring what amounted to about 8-9 weeks of springtime conditions last season. It was not ideal, but it was an awesome, seemingly endless feast of corn that were it not for the decisions made in Nov and Dec might not have been.

So, I agree that a shift in early season snow making strategy is the way to go, but I hope that it would be a very measured change to balance between the here and now, making the dollars for the mountain (and the valley) for the holidays, and for March and April . . . and May.

HowieT2
11-13-2009, 11:49 AM
I think Mr. Woodsman presents a very srtong and well stated case for altering strategy to open more terrain earlier and impact more of the mountain and subsequently more skiers earlier in the season. With this point I am in full agreement.

The only risk, or at least the greatest risk as I see it, is to what degree a shift in strategy is employed. I have no idea what it takes nor how long it takes to get Snowball, Steins, Spring Fling, Downspout, etc. loaded for spring skiing. But if by some twist of fate, such as spring arriving in late Feb early March like last year, and Steins atc. isn't capable of going the distance for the spring, can you imagine the outcry of discontent that would be loud and oh yes, very longwinded.

I too remember looking up at NL even with pretty significant coverage of natural on it and thinking: Why isn't it and when will it be open? However, at this point in the discussion I am not sure enough credit is being given to mtn. ops for, despite stated system limitations, enduring what amounted to about 8-9 weeks of springtime conditions last season. It was not ideal, but it was an awesome, seemingly endless feast of corn that were it not for the decisions made in Nov and Dec might not have been.

So, I agree that a shift in early season snow making strategy is the way to go, but I hope that it would be a very measured change to balance between the here and now, making the dollars for the mountain (and the valley) for the holidays, and for March and April . . . and May.

they were done making snow on steins before they moved to NL in the middle of january last season. so there should be plenty of time to get back to making snow on steins for the spring.

Tin Woodsman
11-13-2009, 01:19 PM
I think Mr. Woodsman presents a very srtong and well stated case for altering strategy to open more terrain earlier and impact more of the mountain and subsequently more skiers earlier in the season. With this point I am in full agreement.

The only risk, or at least the greatest risk as I see it, is to what degree a shift in strategy is employed. I have no idea what it takes nor how long it takes to get Snowball, Steins, Spring Fling, Downspout, etc. loaded for spring skiing. But if by some twist of fate, such as spring arriving in late Feb early March like last year, and Steins atc. isn't capable of going the distance for the spring, can you imagine the outcry of discontent that would be loud and oh yes, very longwinded.

I too remember looking up at NL even with pretty significant coverage of natural on it and thinking: Why isn't it and when will it be open? However, at this point in the discussion I am not sure enough credit is being given to mtn. ops for, despite stated system limitations, enduring what amounted to about 8-9 weeks of springtime conditions last season. It was not ideal, but it was an awesome, seemingly endless feast of corn that were it not for the decisions made in Nov and Dec might not have been.

So, I agree that a shift in early season snow making strategy is the way to go, but I hope that it would be a very measured change to balance between the here and now, making the dollars for the mountain (and the valley) for the holidays, and for March and April . . . and May.

they were done making snow on steins before they moved to NL in the middle of january last season. so there should be plenty of time to get back to making snow on steins for the spring.
Right. I think people have to realize that, with a few exceptions (thaws), they are mostly done making snow to expand terrain by late January/early February. That's the Cliffs/Sunrise window. What are the chances that you don't get a consistent window of cold temps in both February AND March? I'd say pretty slim, fully aware of the vicissitudes of New England weather. Regardless, I think Yard Sale's post serves to help underline the fact that this is a complex issue featuring many trade offs that we, as outsiders, can't fully understand. It would be nice to have to make fewer of those trade-offs with a more powerful system.

Hawk
11-13-2009, 01:31 PM
I think Mr. Woodsman presents a very srtong and well stated case for altering strategy to open more terrain earlier and impact more of the mountain and subsequently more skiers earlier in the season. With this point I am in full agreement.

The only risk, or at least the greatest risk as I see it, is to what degree a shift in strategy is employed. I have no idea what it takes nor how long it takes to get Snowball, Steins, Spring Fling, Downspout, etc. loaded for spring skiing. But if by some twist of fate, such as spring arriving in late Feb early March like last year, and Steins atc. isn't capable of going the distance for the spring, can you imagine the outcry of discontent that would be loud and oh yes, very longwinded.

I too remember looking up at NL even with pretty significant coverage of natural on it and thinking: Why isn't it and when will it be open? However, at this point in the discussion I am not sure enough credit is being given to mtn. ops for, despite stated system limitations, enduring what amounted to about 8-9 weeks of springtime conditions last season. It was not ideal, but it was an awesome, seemingly endless feast of corn that were it not for the decisions made in Nov and Dec might not have been.

So, I agree that a shift in early season snow making strategy is the way to go, but I hope that it would be a very measured change to balance between the here and now, making the dollars for the mountain (and the valley) for the holidays, and for March and April . . . and May.

they were done making snow on steins before they moved to NL in the middle of january last season. so there should be plenty of time to get back to making snow on steins for the spring.
Right. I think people have to realize that, with a few exceptions (thaws), they are mostly done making snow to expand terrain by late January/early February. That's the Cliffs/Sunrise window. What are the chances that you don't get a consistent window of cold temps in both February AND March? I'd say pretty slim, fully aware of the vicissitudes of New England weather. Regardless, I think Yard Sale's post serves to help underline the fact that this is a complex issue featuring many trade offs that we, as outsiders, can't fully understand. It would be nice to have to make fewer of those trade-offs with a more powerful system.
Actually to be totally accuate....the glacier on Steins was the product of more than one 3 to 4 day blasting stint. They hit it before NL and then again after. So the 8 to 10 feet of snow took about 8 days of snowmaking. That is what it takes to ski in May.

HowieT2
11-13-2009, 01:38 PM
I think Mr. Woodsman presents a very srtong and well stated case for altering strategy to open more terrain earlier and impact more of the mountain and subsequently more skiers earlier in the season. With this point I am in full agreement.

The only risk, or at least the greatest risk as I see it, is to what degree a shift in strategy is employed. I have no idea what it takes nor how long it takes to get Snowball, Steins, Spring Fling, Downspout, etc. loaded for spring skiing. But if by some twist of fate, such as spring arriving in late Feb early March like last year, and Steins atc. isn't capable of going the distance for the spring, can you imagine the outcry of discontent that would be loud and oh yes, very longwinded.

I too remember looking up at NL even with pretty significant coverage of natural on it and thinking: Why isn't it and when will it be open? However, at this point in the discussion I am not sure enough credit is being given to mtn. ops for, despite stated system limitations, enduring what amounted to about 8-9 weeks of springtime conditions last season. It was not ideal, but it was an awesome, seemingly endless feast of corn that were it not for the decisions made in Nov and Dec might not have been.

So, I agree that a shift in early season snow making strategy is the way to go, but I hope that it would be a very measured change to balance between the here and now, making the dollars for the mountain (and the valley) for the holidays, and for March and April . . . and May.

they were done making snow on steins before they moved to NL in the middle of january last season. so there should be plenty of time to get back to making snow on steins for the spring.
Right. I think people have to realize that, with a few exceptions (thaws), they are mostly done making snow to expand terrain by late January/early February. That's the Cliffs/Sunrise window. What are the chances that you don't get a consistent window of cold temps in both February AND March? I'd say pretty slim, fully aware of the vicissitudes of New England weather. Regardless, I think Yard Sale's post serves to help underline the fact that this is a complex issue featuring many trade offs that we, as outsiders, can't fully understand. It would be nice to have to make fewer of those trade-offs with a more powerful system.
Actually to be totally accuate....the glacier on Steins was the product of more than one 3 to 4 day blasting stints. The hit it before NL and then again after. So the 8 to 10 feet of snow took about a continuous days of snowmaking. That is what it takes to ski in May.

My recollection is a little fuzzy (it's not the speed, it's the cough syrup) but I believe they made snow on steins for something like a week straight last year.

All this talk about snow making and I don't even like groomers. We need some snow. real, honest to betsy, manna from heaven, snow. At the very least at this time of year, a storm with potential for snow to track. This is brutal.

Hawk
11-13-2009, 01:50 PM
I think Mr. Woodsman presents a very srtong and well stated case for altering strategy to open more terrain earlier and impact more of the mountain and subsequently more skiers earlier in the season. With this point I am in full agreement.

The only risk, or at least the greatest risk as I see it, is to what degree a shift in strategy is employed. I have no idea what it takes nor how long it takes to get Snowball, Steins, Spring Fling, Downspout, etc. loaded for spring skiing. But if by some twist of fate, such as spring arriving in late Feb early March like last year, and Steins atc. isn't capable of going the distance for the spring, can you imagine the outcry of discontent that would be loud and oh yes, very longwinded.

I too remember looking up at NL even with pretty significant coverage of natural on it and thinking: Why isn't it and when will it be open? However, at this point in the discussion I am not sure enough credit is being given to mtn. ops for, despite stated system limitations, enduring what amounted to about 8-9 weeks of springtime conditions last season. It was not ideal, but it was an awesome, seemingly endless feast of corn that were it not for the decisions made in Nov and Dec might not have been.

So, I agree that a shift in early season snow making strategy is the way to go, but I hope that it would be a very measured change to balance between the here and now, making the dollars for the mountain (and the valley) for the holidays, and for March and April . . . and May.

they were done making snow on steins before they moved to NL in the middle of january last season. so there should be plenty of time to get back to making snow on steins for the spring.
Right. I think people have to realize that, with a few exceptions (thaws), they are mostly done making snow to expand terrain by late January/early February. That's the Cliffs/Sunrise window. What are the chances that you don't get a consistent window of cold temps in both February AND March? I'd say pretty slim, fully aware of the vicissitudes of New England weather. Regardless, I think Yard Sale's post serves to help underline the fact that this is a complex issue featuring many trade offs that we, as outsiders, can't fully understand. It would be nice to have to make fewer of those trade-offs with a more powerful system.
Actually to be totally accuate....the glacier on Steins was the product of more than one 3 to 4 day blasting stints. The hit it before NL and then again after. So the 8 to 10 feet of snow took about a continuous days of snowmaking. That is what it takes to ski in May.

My recollection is a little fuzzy (it's not the speed, it's the cough syrup) but I believe they made snow on steins for something like a week straight last year.

All this talk about snow making and I don't even like groomers. We need some snow. real, honest to betsy, manna from heaven, snow. At the very least at this time of year, a storm with potential for snow to track. This is brutal.
Yup. I guess it is better than the ski school thread thou. :wink:

vonski
11-13-2009, 04:01 PM
Maybe with the inversion of temps that seem to be ocurring right now. The lone fan gun could be brought down to the snowmaking pond and they could blow some snow down there and truck it up to downspout. :shock: Sorry, I won't quit my day job! :lol: But this does really suck! Go figure cooler in the valley than on the hill at least last night.

Go Figure
11-14-2009, 10:06 AM
Big Blowout on German Flats Road. Ratty old pipe sprung another leak. Did the pump that failed last year get replaced.

Plowboy
11-14-2009, 04:56 PM
Big Blowout on German Flats Road. Ratty old pipe sprung another leak. Did the pump that failed last year get replaced.

That ratty pipe has sprung more than a dozen times in the the past three years.

Treeskier
11-16-2009, 12:11 AM
It's early season, make snow when it's cold. Even if it's only at night. Looks like we are going to get some cold nights.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 24. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 43. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 19. Calm wind.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 53.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 22.

Hope the guns go a blazing on these cold nights!

Will be doing my snow dance to help.

Go Figure
11-16-2009, 07:18 AM
^^^^^Sorry, maybe if you lived here you would have a better grasp of the local weather. Valley is cold, while the peaks are not. See inversion.
I would make other plans for this weekend.

THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 301 AM EST MON NOV 16 2009

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 33. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW AROUND 28. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
30 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...
BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

DETAILED TEMPERATURE & WIND DATA:

DATE MON 11/16/09 TUE 11/17/09
TIME 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19
TEMP 33 29 30 32 30 29 29 28 28 30 32 37 40
WIND DIR NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N NE NE
WIND SPD 37 35 35 33 31 31 32 29 27 25 20 17 14

ski_resort_observer
11-16-2009, 08:11 AM
Inversions are pretty rare in the northeast and happen during a strong high pressure. Much more common out west. One day at JH it was -40F at the base and +30F at the summit. Was dressed for the cold but we stayed on the upper mountain above the clouds in the sun and when we skied down to the base at the end of the day soaked with sweat it was strange as the sweat froze up as we headed down to the frigid base.

Temps from the National Weather Service via the NOAA site does not indicate an inversion as temps are colder on the mountain vs the valley.

for LP at 2932'
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95

near the Mad River at 899'
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.12062031351838&lon=-72.85514831542969&site=btv&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

Go Figure
11-16-2009, 08:40 AM
Not so much an inversion like last week [55 at the mountain, 21 in Waitsfield at 8 am] but much colder in the valley as cold settles. Sunny and temps to the mid 50s this week with rain on Friday. Not the best week unless you are biking.
The fact is snow needs to be made top of bravo-base of heavens gate and it WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH AT THIS ELEVATION TO MAKE ENOUGH SNOW WITH THE LOW-E GUNS.

ski_resort_observer
11-16-2009, 09:10 AM
I think eveyone would agree that making snow this week will be extremely challenging but I'll leave that decision to Win and Mountain Opps.

vonski
11-16-2009, 09:36 AM
not much hope with this forecast! http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Sugarbush/6day/top

Lostone
11-16-2009, 10:17 AM
Do you have a link to that Mt Ellen peak forecast?

I have the one SRO posted, for 2900'. But it would be great to have something from the peak, that says when it was updated.

Tried to use the Sugarbush website one, but there is nothing to say when it is updated, and sometimes it says the exact same thing for over a week. :?

Either there are really stable temperatures, or the reading somehow get stuck. :roll: . . . . . . . . :wink:

vonski
11-16-2009, 11:08 AM
Lostone, the one I posted only has Sugarbush as a location. but here is a link for Mad River Glen. My link shows the lows for the top of the mountain and the elevation temperatures. It states it was updated at 6 am this morning. It does change often. I usually use it to see that there will be snow up top and maybe rain in the valley. But right now it is not very kind.

Here is the Mad river glen link. http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mad-River-Glen/6day/top

Lostone
11-16-2009, 11:37 AM
vonski, that appears to be the same 3000' as SRO's, but in a different format... (including metric? (Where is this from?))

Go Figure had one that claimed to be Mt Ellen peak. Would like to add that to my bag of tricks! :wink:

vonski
11-16-2009, 11:45 AM
Lostone, The one SRO posted is different. I think that one goes for the whole area down to the valley. it does say 2900 feet but that is below the map for the mountain so not sure if that is relevant for the actual elevation temperatures. The one I posted can be switched between metric and feet. I keep it on feet. If you go to the top on mine you can switch it to any resort in the world!! Last weeks inversions did not show up on the link I posted either. That is why I made the comment previous about inversion and making snow in the valley and trucking it up the hill. :lol:

The WEather channel forecast also shows the lows that would be good for snow making, but inversion is going to be the case I guess with this big fat HIGH that is upon us.

Lostone
11-16-2009, 12:12 PM
OK, I had to allow it to run a script, to make it feet and °F. I can use this. But the question is still, where they get their data from. If you look at the chart, there is not much inversion being talked about, but the temps are all higher than those of other forecasts.

And SRO's is NWS for ≈ 3000', which puts you pretty much at the top of Bravo. I believe it is computed from the Barre Airport. It is pretty accurate, as sen from the last few years, when it appeared either here or on the RSN forum, or places between.

vonski
11-16-2009, 12:29 PM
OK, I had to allow it to run a script, to make it feet and °F. I can use this. But the question is still, where they get their data from. If you look at the chart, there is not much inversion being talked about, but the temps are all higher than those of other forecasts.

And SRO's is NWS for ≈ 3000', which puts you pretty much at the top of Bravo. I believe it is computed from the Barre Airport. It is pretty accurate, as sen from the last few years, when it appeared either here or on the RSN forum, or places between.

NOt sure where they get it from, but in the past it has been correct. It was last week. The other forecasts were showing lows in the 20's and this one kept with the temps being above freezing on the mountain. I really think the other forecasts go to the valley floor as that is where most live I guess. I think this one is more specific to the top of the lift line.

Hawk
11-16-2009, 01:04 PM
^^^^^Sorry, maybe if you lived here you would have a better grasp of the local weather. Valley is cold, while the peaks are not. See inversion.
I would make other plans for this weekend.

THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 301 AM EST MON NOV 16 2009

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 33. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW AROUND 28. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
30 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...
BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

DETAILED TEMPERATURE & WIND DATA:

DATE MON 11/16/09 TUE 11/17/09
TIME 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19
TEMP 33 29 30 32 30 29 29 28 28 30 32 37 40
WIND DIR NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N NE NE
WIND SPD 37 35 35 33 31 31 32 29 27 25 20 17 14
I think your hypothesis about an inversion is not correct. With the passing of the front, high pressure moving in and the winds from the North-Northwest it is highly unlikely that conditions exist for an inversion. Inversions happen when a warm front approaches and warm air overrides the cold. I think that Treeskiers forcast is pretty close.

summitchallenger
11-16-2009, 01:13 PM
Just went to SB's snow report page and they have announced that they will not be opening this weekend. :(

Go Figure
11-16-2009, 04:58 PM
Latest Ellen forcast

Note the 47 at 7 pm Wed. evening= big suck

THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 223 PM EST MON NOV 16 2009

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW AROUND 27. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO
30 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 41. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW AROUND 41. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 47. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

DETAILED TEMPERATURE & WIND DATA:

DATE TUE 11/17/09 WED 11/18/09
TIME 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19
TEMP 29 27 28 28 29 34 37 39 41 41 42 42 45 45 45 46 47
WIND DIR NW NW N N S N NE NE NE E SE S SW SW SW SW SW
WIND SPD 29 32 29 26 27 24 20 21 17 11 5 3 3 5 8 9 6
WIND CHL 13 11 13 13 14 21 26 29 32 35 38 40 43 42 41 42 44

HowieT2
11-16-2009, 05:01 PM
Latest Ellen forcast

Note the 47 at 7 pm Wed. evening= big suck

THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 223 PM EST MON NOV 16 2009

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW AROUND 27. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO
30 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 41. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW AROUND 41. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 47. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

DETAILED TEMPERATURE & WIND DATA:

DATE TUE 11/17/09 WED 11/18/09
TIME 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19
TEMP 29 27 28 28 29 34 37 39 41 41 42 42 45 45 45 46 47
WIND DIR NW NW N N S N NE NE NE E SE S SW SW SW SW SW
WIND SPD 29 32 29 26 27 24 20 21 17 11 5 3 3 5 8 9 6
WIND CHL 13 11 13 13 14 21 26 29 32 35 38 40 43 42 41 42 44

alright already. stop rubbing it in. Brutal, but at least it's only november.

Hawk
11-17-2009, 08:23 AM
Yup gotta love warm Southwest winds in November. :(
I'm coming up anyway. Got a killer deal on a refrigerator and need to get it to the condo. It was a display unit with a slight scratch. I will now have a crushed Ice make for those apre Vodka tonics. :D
So anybody care to speculate what will be open at the big K this weekend?

win
11-17-2009, 09:14 AM
Look at the cam on their website.

Hawk
11-17-2009, 09:23 AM
Looks like we will be........hiking. :shock:
Thanks for the heads up Win.

teleo
11-17-2009, 11:10 AM
I will now have a crushed Ice make for
Does that make enough to cover Organgrinder? :? Ok, I'm getting really bummed out and desperate. Haven't skied for over 6 months:(

win
11-17-2009, 02:53 PM
Looks like the longer term forecast is calling for a major change later next week as cold air comes in from Alaska. Hopefully it will bring some real snow too to speed things up!

Fourwide
11-17-2009, 04:20 PM
...holds true to form re. the coming winter. http://www.snocountry.com/index.php/component/content/article/41/2473.html

HowieT2
11-17-2009, 04:50 PM
FWIW see, http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=211616

forecast broken down into 2 week periods. so far so good.

Go Figure
11-18-2009, 06:21 AM
6 am 36`in Boston, 37` Mt Washington summit


THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 310 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 49. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES AROUND 47. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH
AROUND 52. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

win
11-18-2009, 06:57 AM
Yes, we have a big inversion this morning. Looking at the web thermometer at 7am it is 25 at the base and 39 at the summit of Lincoln Peak

Treeskier
11-18-2009, 07:53 AM
So did we blow snow down low? Like Sunday River and Killington. Very frosty here.

vonski
11-18-2009, 08:17 AM
^^^^^Sorry, maybe if you lived here you would have a better grasp of the local weather. Valley is cold, while the peaks are not. See inversion.
I would make other plans for this weekend.


I think your hypothesis about an inversion is not correct. With the passing of the front, high pressure moving in and the winds from the North-Northwest it is highly unlikely that conditions exist for an inversion. Inversions happen when a warm front approaches and warm air overrides the cold. I think that Treeskiers forcast is pretty close.

Big Inversion last night. warm air rises leaving the cold on valley floor!!!!

summitchallenger
11-18-2009, 08:43 AM
I think your hypothesis about an inversion is not correct. With the passing of the front, high pressure moving in and the winds from the North-Northwest it is highly unlikely that conditions exist for an inversion. Inversions happen when a warm front approaches and warm air overrides the cold. I think that Treeskiers forcast is pretty close.

Not when the winds are coming out of the SW and bringing in warm air as we have seen with this pattern :(


THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT ELLEN, VERMONT AT 4,083 FT:
LAST UPDATED AT 310 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 49. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES AROUND 47. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH
AROUND 52. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

Hawk
11-18-2009, 08:43 AM
^^^^^Sorry, maybe if you lived here you would have a better grasp of the local weather. Valley is cold, while the peaks are not. See inversion.
I would make other plans for this weekend.


I think your hypothesis about an inversion is not correct. With the passing of the front, high pressure moving in and the winds from the North-Northwest it is highly unlikely that conditions exist for an inversion. Inversions happen when a warm front approaches and warm air overrides the cold. I think that Treeskiers forcast is pretty close.

Big Inversion last night. warm air rises leaving the cold on valley floor!!!!

Nope... look at the wind direction... it changed yesterday from North-Northwest to South. The inversion last night and today is a combination of warmer air sweeping in from the south and radiational cooling. It not so much that warm air rises but cold air settles in the valleys. The warm air aloft is not a product of warm air rising but warm air arriving form the south. :wink:

noski
11-18-2009, 08:45 AM
The Valley this morning was heavily frosted, it looked almost like midwinter with the dense ice crystals on everything and the sun shining through the sparkling branches. We had frost up above, but not quite as hard as the Valley.

scharny
11-18-2009, 10:38 AM
I guess it's too late to even think about moving things to over to Mt Ellen.

One thing I've noticed about late Fall/early Spring inversions in northern New England is that they often have a "sandwich" quality about them, meaning that the warmest air can be mid-mountain with cold in the valley and cold on the summit. Right now, Mt. Washington has 44.4F at 1,600', 51.7F at 4,000', and 42F at 6,288'. Yeah I know Mt. Washington is 2K higher than Mt. Ellen, but these same kinds of weather phenomena happen on 4,000 peaks as well.

With Mt. Ellen's Summit Quad being located at around 3,500' elevation, this might give a better chance at "getting above" things... It worked Fall 2006, which had VERY similar weather conditions to what we have now.

vonski
11-18-2009, 10:47 AM
I guess it's too late to even think about moving things to over to Mt Ellen.

One thing I've noticed about late Fall/early Spring inversions in northern New England is that they often have a "sandwich" quality about them, meaning that the warmest air can be mid-mountain with cold in the valley and cold on the summit. Right now, Mt. Washington has 44.4F at 1,600', 51.7F at 4,000', and 42F at 6,288'. Yeah I know Mt. Washington is 2K higher than Mt. Ellen, but these same kinds of weather phenomena happen on 4,000 peaks as well.

With Mt. Ellen's Summit Quad being located at around 3,500' elevation, this might give a better chance at "getting above" things... It worked Fall 2006, which had VERY similar weather conditions to what we have now.

Win did mention somewhere that they are looking to get the guns on at Ellen as well at this point. So, who knows. if they could still make the switch if necessary. Not sure if they could get the top of Ellen open quicker at this point.

win
11-18-2009, 06:28 PM
We will turn on both mountains at the same time, but it will take less to get LP open. Less acreage to cover and more capacity.

win
11-18-2009, 06:31 PM
Tree,

No! It won't last based on the forecast we see! Warm and rainy for a couple of days. Looks at Killington's cam and you will see what happend there after there opening day.

We are going when we can keep it and not keep redoing the same acreage.

HowieT2
11-19-2009, 03:04 PM
judging by the forecast, it does not look promising for next weekend.

Thank you General Atkinson for the snow making dissertation in the weekly e-mail. Really appreciated.

gone.skiing
11-19-2009, 03:13 PM
Make snow, not PR

slatham
11-20-2009, 07:13 PM
Ok weather freaks, Joe Bastardi, long range forecaster extradinaire from Accuweather (and die-hard snow lover) sees a potential pattern change coming.

"The period Dec 1-15 and if we are lucky for all you dreamers of a white Christmas, should be one that may bring back memories of patterns that had alot people in the running for a white Christmas. This looks to me to be off to starts comparable to 2000,2002 and 2005." and "The blended analog gives this for the month in some selected cities Bos -3 Buf -5 nyc -5 dca -5 cae -5 mco -4 jan -5 cvg -7 dtw -5 dfw -2.5 mci -5 msp -3".

For now, Win is right not to fight the pattern (or "fight the tape" from his previous life). Last year we had very warm weather until right about now, and then it turned. This year, if Joe is right, it turns a week or so later. In the meantime, no sense in wasting money on snow that melts. Enjoy the turkey, you'll need the carbs come the first week in December.
:D
THINK SNOW!

Fishwife
11-20-2009, 08:06 PM
........THINKING SNOW..............

win
11-23-2009, 01:46 PM
This weekend is not looking good, but Friday does appear to be the changeover, and the next two week forecast for both snowmaking and real snow is looking much better. I am betting that the weekend of December 5th is going to be the weekend to put on the skis and boards and that it will remain good thereafter.

vonski
11-23-2009, 04:51 PM
There is hope dancing my ass off!

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Sugarbush/6day/top

HowieT2
11-23-2009, 05:12 PM
from NWS BTV

FRIDAY NITE/SATURDAY...TRICKY PART OF THE FCST. AS UPPER TROF CUTS
OFF...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...LIKELY BELOW 980MB BY
EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COPIUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...SO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. NO STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE ANY DRY/COOL AIR INTO THE SYSTEM...RATHER ITS FROM THE
DYNAMIC COOLING FROM STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS
SO WRAPPED UP...THAT IT APPEARS THE COLDER TEMPS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES BEGIN TO SUPPORT
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NITE. FREEZING LEVELS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2000-3000FT...SO ACCUMULATING
SNOWS PROBABLY DOWN TO ABOUT 1500FT TO START THE DAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON...FREEZING LEVELS DROP A LITTLE BIT MORE...SO EVEN AT
THE VALLEY FLOOR WE SHOULD RAIN/SNOW MIX. CERTAINLY ABOVE 1000FT
IT WILL BE ALL SNOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH A SUB 980MB LOW OFF TO OUR
EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPSLOPE
FLOW CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

LOTS OF THINGS COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT WITH MODELS
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. LOOKS TO BE AN VERY
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOW EVENT. RAN A FEW SCENARIOS HERE TO SEE
WHAT WE MAY GET. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY SEE
BETWEEN 1/2" TO 2"...BUT YOU GET OVER 1000FT AND WE ARE TALKING
SEVERAL INCHES. FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OVER 10" BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVELLERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

Hawk
11-24-2009, 07:59 AM
This weekend's forecast is starting to sound more interesting. Some of the local prognosticators are starting to get a little excited. :D
Stay tuned.

win
11-24-2009, 04:08 PM
It is good to get excited. Last night was a disappointment. We had the guns on for a short while, but had to shut down very early. Temperatures will not be good until Friday night it looks like.

vonski
11-24-2009, 05:18 PM
It is good to get excited. Last night was a disappointment. We had the guns on for a short while, but had to shut down very early. Temperatures will not be good until Friday night it looks like.
Thanks for trying!