Snow!

[atkinson]

Forecasts for snow have been posted for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Junkboard time already?

Bring it!

John

[Strat]

There better be pics!

[Benski]

and so it begins.

[ski_resort_observer]

Hopefully, it will be a repeat of last year. Pic from Oct 2.

http://forums.skimrv.com/albums/album42/snow08092.jpg

[Last Tracks]

ept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

“It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade,” Rogers said.

[ski_resort_observer]

ept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

“It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade,” Rogers said.

I'm scratching my head.....in paragraph 3 it says

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March.

the last sentence says

It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade,” Rogers said. .

hmmmmmm

[vonski]

My guess on the contradiction is that a "Weak" El Nino promotes cold and snow while a typical El Nino makes it warm. At least that is what I hope it means.

[HowieT2]

A little more complex than that.
The forecasts I've seen have for the most part indicated that the el nino should mean higher than average snowfall for the midatlantic and eastern seaboard. Doing the snowdance for some of those storms to make to northern New England.

[shadyjay]

Every thing about this thread, from SRO's flashback picture to the predictions of this winter, is getting me amped up to make my return. Even down here in CT they're calling for temps not getting out of the 50s by the end of the week. With every chilly night down here, I'm getting more and more psyched. My bags are packed and as soon as I get the word... I'm gone!

Snow dancin away in CT...

-Jay

[Last Tracks]

I'm scratching my head.....in paragraph 3 it says

it isn't written well..

El nino is a warming in the pacific that causes Jan, Feb MAr to be warmer than usual in the Northeast.

Mr. Rogers is saying that El Nino will be weak, therefore this warming will not happen..

more forecasting the unknowable...

NYMEX gas moved higher yesterday, but the action was unimpressive. Matt Rogers of Commodity Weather Group went public via Bloomberg TV with his forecast that this heating season “… could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade;” — could being the operative verb in that forecast. Matt is well respected within the gas market. He likely issued this forecast to his clients a couple of weeks ago. Therefore, this very well could be the smoking gun, i.e. the catalyst that prompted the rally in gas. After all, with gas below $2 in the cash market at the beginning of the month, how much lower could this market really go? It is not hard to imagine that a bullish weather forecast from Matt prompted utilities and marketers to cover their exposure to the winter, which in turn ignited this month’s short-covering rally. Therefore, if the rally is going to have legs, we have to see the cold. The nascent recovery in industrial demand is likely not enough to sustain the spike in price. Regardless, we will maintain our bullish bias (based on the technicals) as long as the current bullish channel holds.


"predictions ought to serve but for winter talks by the fireside." -Sir Francis Bacon

[Hawk]

There are all kinds of forecasts out there and the common thread is that the weak El Niño will bring cold and snow. One forecaster that I follow simply summarized it by saying that the cold upper level trough that we have been seeing this year will stay around. The impact that the weak El Niño may have is it will not force progressive patterns over the Northeast and push the trough out. So with cold air in place any moisture is snow. Of course there are all kinds of indices and factors but that was the general thought.

One thing that the trough does produce is reinforcing fronts and that my friends equates to upslope. :)

Keeping my fingers crossed.

[Lostone]

Nothing at my place and I was unable to see thru the clouds over the peak, but on my way to the station, there was snow on the peaks to the northeast. And it was coming down on my car, too.

[ski_resort_observer]

I'm thinking that's it's a pretty safe bet that the upper mountain has snow.....just have to wait for the clouds to open up so we can get some pics......she's a modest girl....:lol:

[Go Figure]

Clouds parted to reveal....................frost! Upper reaches of South had frost but no snow. Mansfield reported 1 1/2" of snow.

[ski_resort_observer]

Unfortunately we didn't get a whole of snow this go around. From my perches frpm Fenn Basin Rd for Mt Ellen and my Camels Hump perch It looks like alittle snow above 3500' and a dusting abit below that. You can get a good look at Mt Hunger to the north from Meadow Rd and it looks like it got alittle more than that. I'm waiting for an email from a friend up at North Troy regarding Jay. Mt Mansfield is significantly higher than all the rest so I'm assuming they got a bunch more. The snow will hopefully be mentioned on WCAX on in about an hour. Nothing to get very excited about so I didn't take any pics.