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happygirl
12-08-2008, 05:56 AM
I heard heavy rain for wednesday. :cry: :cry:

BushMogulMaster
12-08-2008, 08:24 AM
Followed by low temps and a brief period of heavy snow. Hopefully it will bond well, and we will prevail again!

vonski
12-08-2008, 08:38 AM
I called my cousins in Minnesota and asked them to turn their fans on and point the east. Maybe we can get the trough to shift east. Think snow everyone. Maybe mother nature will give us a break, but not looking good. :cry:

freeheel_skier
12-08-2008, 08:45 AM
Rain, wind and snow. Looks like Wednesday is going to be interesting. I am keeping my fingers crossed.......

HowieT2
12-08-2008, 09:21 AM
Damn this thread.
Looks to get brutally cold after the R@#$%^&n

shadyjay
12-08-2008, 10:13 AM
Only in New England can we go from 0 deg one day to 40 deg and rain the next...
I'm getting out of town next weekend (NYC)... with my luck it'll dump and it'll be a powder weekend for the birthday bash...

happygirl
12-08-2008, 12:21 PM
pray for snow.. I just heard the warm up will be brief.

castlerock
12-08-2008, 06:18 PM
.......MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER W/ LOW PASSAGE THRU THE
CWA. THIS WILL MEAN A QUICKER TURNAROUND TO CD AIR/SNOW ON BACKSIDE
OF SYSTEM BY WED AFTNOON. STRONG WAA WILL NOT WORK IN AS SUGGESTED
IN PAST MDL RUNS...SO LOOKING FOR PRECIP TO STAY NEAR RW/SW MIX AT
TIMES THRU EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN. ACCUMS FOR THE 2-DAY
PERIOD COULD RANGE FROM 1-4"...W/ HIR TOTALS OVER MTNS.

freeheel_skier
12-08-2008, 07:15 PM
.......MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER W/ LOW PASSAGE THRU THE
CWA. THIS WILL MEAN A QUICKER TURNAROUND TO CD AIR/SNOW ON BACKSIDE
OF SYSTEM BY WED AFTNOON. STRONG WAA WILL NOT WORK IN AS SUGGESTED
IN PAST MDL RUNS...SO LOOKING FOR PRECIP TO STAY NEAR RW/SW MIX AT
TIMES THRU EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN. ACCUMS FOR THE 2-DAY
PERIOD COULD RANGE FROM 1-4"...W/ HIR TOTALS OVER MTNS.

I haven't checked the weather since the am but I like the look of that forecast much better.

vonski
12-08-2008, 08:50 PM
I use this link alot to see what might be coming. It constantly changes but can be interesting. There is something brewing for Saturday which was not there this morning. Win must have connections to mother nature!!! Happy B-day hopefully. http://coolwx.com/ptype/ Keep up the faith for Wednesday.

noski
12-09-2008, 08:22 AM
Put your weather eye to Friday....

HowieT2
12-09-2008, 08:56 AM
Put your weather eye to Friday....

Oh what I wouldn't do to drive up Friday night through a massive snowstorm. I'm not kidding.

Hawk
12-09-2008, 09:08 AM
So what is the duration of the NCP and how much? At one point I heard 2" of R*%#.

smootharc
12-09-2008, 09:16 AM
I use this link alot to see what might be coming. It constantly changes but can be interesting. There is something brewing for Saturday which was not there this morning. Win must have connections to mother nature!!! Happy B-day hopefully. http://coolwx.com/ptype/ Keep up the faith for Wednesday.

You find it to be fairly accurate ?

chuck
12-09-2008, 09:41 AM
Ok, not being as brave as HowieT2, I'm leaving thursday evening.....

Dawn Patrol
12-09-2008, 10:12 AM
Just refreshed the weather page on sugarbush.com. Looks like the temps are rising by the minute... :cry:

atkinson
12-09-2008, 10:41 AM
Weather Underground is calling for a high of 40 in Moretown tomorrow, with ice pellets, not rain. This could change at any time, but keep the faith and remember the mantras of the eastern skier/rider ...

It's good for the base!

Net gain!

John

summitchallenger
12-09-2008, 10:49 AM
The forecast is looking better by the minute...considering they were saying a major rain event...

We need to get this jet stream just a bit to the east.

madhavok
12-09-2008, 11:36 AM
I don't know what the weather report was before, but I’m seeing rain Tuesday night right through Wednesday. Friday doesn’t look like it will bring a major accumulation either, still I’m hoping for snow.

noski
12-09-2008, 11:57 AM
Friday doesn’t look like it will bring a major accumulation either, still I’m hoping for snow. Have faith.....

freeheel_skier
12-09-2008, 12:42 PM
Friday doesn’t look like it will bring a major accumulation either, still I’m hoping for snow. Have faith.....

http://www.weatheringheights.com/

I am hopeful!

HowieT2
12-09-2008, 01:09 PM
I have faith and Lord knows I hope you're right but I haven't seen anything major and it's not for lack of trying.
While I love to drive through snow, freezing rain is a different story and the latest I saw is that southern New England is in for a major freezing rain, ice and sleet event friday which is not good.

noski
12-09-2008, 01:18 PM
Good point- I sort of forgot about Southern New England..... you have to get through there in order to get here. Keep both hands on teh wheel and watch out for the "other guy" and I hope you are well rewarded at the end of your trek! We're pulling for you (all)!

Hawk
12-09-2008, 03:03 PM
Roger Hill's long range does not sound very optimistic. I hope he is wrong.

HowieT2
12-09-2008, 04:21 PM
NWS Albany just posted a winter weather warning for their area for thursday to friday. No update from NWS burlington.

Tin Woodsman
12-09-2008, 04:26 PM
Roger Hill's long range does not sound very optimistic. I hope he is wrong.
I read that too and I was confused. Seemed like that was an older update referencing this current system rather than looking ahead at next week.

summitchallenger
12-09-2008, 04:34 PM
Roger Hill's long range does not sound very optimistic. I hope he is wrong.
I read that too and I was confused. Seemed like that was an older update referencing this current system rather than looking ahead at next week.

+ 1. Roger's site is chaos. I recall reading that over the weekend. I think he did not take it down. Again, based on his site, WDEV forecast, and other sources, namely WCAX, this is not looking at bad as it once was.

vonski
12-09-2008, 04:50 PM
From what i can see on the future cast. It looks like the duration of tomorrow's dibacle is shorter lived and now the track for Friday/Saturday is much more improved with it taking a run right up the coast giving good snows to VT. http://coolwx.com/ptype/ another link shows the altitude and projected snow falls.
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Sugarbush/6day/top So lets Keep the Faith!

notorious
12-09-2008, 05:15 PM
Any normal skier (see: definition of insane) knows that the 80/20 rule says that on any given day, regardless of the weather, there is an 80% chance that if you get off your butt, get outdoors, and ski, you'll be glad you did; while only a 20% chance that you will regret the choice. I, for one, have never experienced a day when I wished I were doing something else than sliding down hill at an unreasonable rate of speed. Yes there are some things we like to do as much, but that can be done after the lifts close. Nair days are good, the snow is forgiving, next day not so good if the temp drops. It's all about mileage, days skiing, and working with the conditions provided by the Gods and Godesses. Where else would you rather be than on the hill? So ignore the weather predictions or you'll miss a lot of good times. It's New England. The weather is always interesting. We were spawned by the puritans and their native friends. Stop talking like indoor people. Let the snowbirds fly to FL or some other flat place. Sack up.

John Walden
12-09-2008, 07:09 PM
I agree with Notorious; " my saying is "it is what it is" when it comes to skiing, boating,weather, etc. You take what they give you. Make the best of it.

HowieT2
12-09-2008, 07:27 PM
Any normal skier (see: definition of insane) knows that the 80/20 rule says that on any given day, regardless of the weather, there is an 80% chance that if you get off your butt, get outdoors, and ski, you'll be glad you did; while only a 20% chance that you will regret the choice. I, for one, have never experienced a day when I wished I were doing something else than sliding down hill at an unreasonable rate of speed. Yes there are some things we like to do as much, but that can be done after the lifts close. Nair days are good, the snow is forgiving, next day not so good if the temp drops. It's all about mileage, days skiing, and working with the conditions provided by the Gods and Godesses. Where else would you rather be than on the hill? So ignore the weather predictions or you'll miss a lot of good times. It's New England. The weather is always interesting. We were spawned by the puritans and their native friends. Stop talking like indoor people. Let the snowbirds fly to FL or some other flat place. Sack up.


uh yeah. but two things. First, I'm skiing no matter what but whether I bust my behind to make first chair depends in large measure as to whether there is a foot of fresh pow or not. If it's the former, I ditch my kids and meet the Boze at the Bravo at 7:45. secondly, I'm driving some 250 miles from NY on friday night with my wife and kids so the weather conditions are very freakin important. The drive will be much better if I know I'm heading into some real snow as opposed to the immature variety. Besides, what better things do I have to do when I'm not skiing or working.

FWIW- I think the change in forecast for friday is the result of the latest computer runs which are just now being used to formulate forecasts. I haven't seen an updated forecast for northern VT but it certainly sounds better then it has all week.

boze
12-09-2008, 07:52 PM
'Sacking up' is one thing when I'm flying solo, and me and my gear rarely care what the weather throws at us...though we do prefer the fluff.
But now that I've gone & grown up with a family of my own it's not just about 'lil ole me sacking up. But I'm working on toughening up the kids & wife. Anyway, this will be a fun weekend either way, just more so if we can dodge the bulk of this pre-crystalline precip. "Traditional' NE ice floes is not what the 50th celebration deserves!

lane meyer
12-09-2008, 08:34 PM
You guys need to dump the wife, ditch the kids and move closer to the mountain. Sack up!

HowieT2
12-09-2008, 08:47 PM
You guys need to dump the wife, ditch the kids and move closer to the mountain. Sack up!

you obviously haven't had the privilege of eating my wife's cooking after a day of skiing. :lol: Besides they are pretty cool and she would move to the mtn in a heartbeat.

I want my 2 dollars.

castlerock
12-09-2008, 08:50 PM
You guys need to dump the wife, ditch the kids and move closer to the mountain. Sack up!


Nahh. Move to the mountain, with the wife and kids. (divorce is expensive and the kids can rip)

Then you never miss a powder day, and are guaranteed a partner in the woods (unless they are in school!)

Thats what I did...

lane meyer
12-09-2008, 09:33 PM
you obviously haven't had the privilege of eating my wife's cooking after a day of skiing. :lol:


Sounds good, I'll be by for dinner after skiing Saturday. I like my steak medium rare :D

HowieT2
12-09-2008, 09:37 PM
you obviously haven't had the privilege of eating my wife's cooking after a day of skiing. :lol:


Sounds good, I'll be by for dinner after skiing Saturday. I like my steak medium rare :D

Not this saturday. We'll be at the GH

Tin Woodsman
12-09-2008, 10:53 PM
Roger Hill's long range does not sound very optimistic. I hope he is wrong.
I read that too and I was confused. Seemed like that was an older update referencing this current system rather than looking ahead at next week.

+ 1. Roger's site is chaos. I recall reading that over the weekend. I think he did not take it down. Again, based on his site, WDEV forecast, and other sources, namely WCAX, this is not looking at bad as it once was.

FWIW, here is what the NWS has to say:


EXPECT CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST US SATURDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY...SO SNOW MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HOVER JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH MONDAY. AS
SUCH...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN
ZONES INTO THE WORK WEEK. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WARM
ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER
LOCALES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION.


Me likey.

boze
12-10-2008, 07:01 AM
you obviously haven't had the privilege of eating my wife's cooking after a day of skiing. :lol:


Sounds good, I'll be by for dinner after skiing Saturday. I like my steak medium rare :D

"Gee, I'm really sorry your mom blew up, Ricky, guess she won't be able to eat any spicy foods for awhile."

:D

Hawk
12-10-2008, 07:15 AM
Any normal skier (see: definition of insane) knows that the 80/20 rule says that on any given day, regardless of the weather, there is an 80% chance that if you get off your butt, get outdoors, and ski, you'll be glad you did; while only a 20% chance that you will regret the choice. I, for one, have never experienced a day when I wished I were doing something else than sliding down hill at an unreasonable rate of speed. Yes there are some things we like to do as much, but that can be done after the lifts close. Nair days are good, the snow is forgiving, next day not so good if the temp drops. It's all about mileage, days skiing, and working with the conditions provided by the Gods and Godesses. Where else would you rather be than on the hill? So ignore the weather predictions or you'll miss a lot of good times. It's New England. The weather is always interesting. We were spawned by the puritans and their native friends. Stop talking like indoor people. Let the snowbirds fly to FL or some other flat place. Sack up.

Notorious, you of all people know that I will be on the hill no matter the conditions. It's part of my french heritage....... :wink:
I was just bummed that the stellar conditions that we are seeing might go away for a while. That is all.

Tin Woodsman
12-10-2008, 09:42 AM
Everyone - do yourself a favor and DO NOT look at the MRG cam. It's not pretty.

vonski
12-10-2008, 09:56 AM
Everyone - do yourself a favor and DO NOT look at the MRG cam. It's not pretty.

Too late I just did and was like what the $#$#(&^&^, that is really ugly.
:cry:

freeheel_skier
12-10-2008, 10:08 AM
The wind......It's a blowin' :!:

vonski
12-10-2008, 10:23 AM
Allright, I know that we cannot control mother nature, but us Flatlanders can't look out the window and see the changes, we are attached only by the web and web cams. So I atleast find my self watching the cams and reports. I try to keep the faith and will ski regardless if I can make it up there. But I don't want to drive 3.5 hours to ski Ice. So, that being said The Temperatures are starting to fall again. Could see the change back to snow soon. But not soon enough. Keep the faith!

Tin Woodsman
12-10-2008, 10:50 AM
Well the good news is that it's dropped 16 degrees in an hour and 20 minutes and is now 34 degrees at the base of MRG. Won't be long now before we see the changeover, though the wedge of snow on radar is depressingly narrow.

HowieT2
12-10-2008, 10:59 AM
36 degrees from Norm and changed over to sleet. The worst is past. About a third of an inch of rain fell.
What will thursday night bring

madhavok
12-10-2008, 11:08 AM
Yuck! :cry:

noski
12-10-2008, 11:20 AM
The wind was just howling all night. My lighting display celebrating Sugarbush & MRG birthdays was decimated. It's all fixed now and I will have to finish the final touches tomorrow. Rain has stopped and local forecast is 3-5" of snow by tonight(?). Please - no inversion!!

BushMogulMaster
12-10-2008, 12:43 PM
Snowing at base of Mt. Ellen as of about 12:30pm.......

Lots of natural gone down low, but manmade is holding up pretty well. Looking at over a foot of new snow by the end of the week. Weekend should be great.

Last Tracks
12-10-2008, 12:52 PM
12:54... i'm in parking lot at LP, gotta love the Claybrook WI-FI system...

still a stretch to call it snow but not rain anymore...

i'm going to have a nice lunch at Timbers and wait for it to change over.

then I'm going skiing.

freeheel_skier
12-10-2008, 12:56 PM
12:54... i'm in parking lot at LP, gotta love the Claybrook WI-FI system...

still a stretch to call it snow but not rain anymore...

i'm going to have a nice lunch at Timbers and wait for it to change over.

then I'm going skiing.

I hate you! :lol: I am working.....need to pay for new boots :wink:

Hardbooter
12-10-2008, 01:44 PM
12:54... i'm in parking lot at LP, gotta love the Claybrook WI-FI system...
Wow, cool. This is setting a new standard for mountain reports. Next thing I want to see is you guys with iPhones and crackberries giving us flatlanders reports while you ski. Hmm. I guess that's easier for us boarders (no poles.) Cell phone pictures will be acceptable as well.

Let us know when the snow matures...

atkinson
12-10-2008, 02:04 PM
Huge flakes coming straight down in the base area!

John

shadyjay
12-10-2008, 02:15 PM
Snowing 15 miles away in Waterbury, with accumulation - dusting so far.
Amazing... 30 deg temp drop since 9am...

2Plankerider
12-10-2008, 02:31 PM
:D snowing in Montpeculiar, 30 miles away...

taking the little one out this weekend. should be fun. last forcast i saw was suppose to be sunny on Sat.

win
12-10-2008, 06:04 PM
Yes, it rained. We closed a number of trails today to preserve them. Since the wind was howling early and we had windholds there were very few people on the slopes. Some diehard ASRA racers worked some gates even today. However, by late morning the temperatures fell at the Summit and by the time I went to snow plan at 1pm it was snowing all the way down to the base. We clearly lost some depth on the natural trails, but not nearly as much as we had feared. Snow today, tonight and then maybe some substantial snow on Thursday night into Friday are setting up for a good weekend. We have a chance of reopening all we had and expanding more. The guns came back on a little while ago and we are concentrating on Middle Jester and will try to get as much capacity on Easy Rider and Pushover as is possible to get some good beginner and intermediate terrain open there.

The new room in CR Pub is just about finished. They were laying the carpet today, and I must say, I think it looks great. Inspectors are coming tomorrow. We won't be serving food there yet, but hopefully can pour some beers. Not a promise yet - just a reasonable hope!

freeheel_skier
12-10-2008, 06:14 PM
Yes, it rained. We closed a number of trails today to preserve them. Since the wind was howling early and we had windholds there were very few people on the slopes. Some diehard ASRA racers worked some gates even today. However, by late morning the temperatures fell at the Summit and by the time I went to snow plan at 1pm it was snowing all the way down to the base. We clearly lost some depth on the natural trails, but not nearly as much as we had feared. Snow today, tonight and then maybe some substantial snow on Thursday night into Friday are setting up for a good weekend. We have a chance of reopening all we had and expanding more. The guns came back on a little while ago and we are concentrating on Middle Jester and will try to get as much capacity on Easy Rider and Pushover as is possible to get some good beginner and intermediate terrain open there.

The new room in CR Pub is just about finished. They were laying the carpet today, and I must say, I think it looks great. Inspectors are coming tomorrow. We won't be serving food there yet, but hopefully can pour some beers. Not a promise yet - just a reasonable hope!

Thanks for the update/play by play. Looking fwd to beers in the new Pub!