Natural Snow Trail Damage? Pics, please.

Okay, we often get powder pics when things are great, but how about some pics of conditions after this latest warm-up? How did the natural snow trails fare? Did you lose any terrain? I see the lifts are all closed, presumably wind hold?

[skiladi]

Okay, we often get powder pics when things are great, but how about some pics of conditions after this latest warm-up? How did the natural snow trails fare? Did you lose any terrain? I see the lifts are all closed, presumably wind hold?

Brown spots were showing through when I left on Monday. I imagine it has deteriorated from there. We need the cold and snow to return.

[win]

We clearly lost depth. The bad news is that we had a "traditional" January thaw. The good news is that this happened this week and that there was something to thaw. The winds ripped all day and are still ripping tonight. Our groomers are out on the mountain and will be pushing snow around to patch things up. When we get up to the Mountain in the morning, I think we will still be skiing on most of the trails even if they are thin. Next week looks good for snowmaking and the end of the week shows the possibility of some natural snow. At this point, my guess is that we will have decent skiing this weekend on the trails that have had snowmaking, but that the natural trails and the woods will be thin. However, by MLK weekend we should be in good shape again. I will keep you posted!

A tree fell on out power line that provides power to Heaven's Gate and Castlerock, and we have Royal Electic in tonight trying to fix it. Hopefully, we can by morning, but we will have to see.

[Go Figure]

Good Morning

Good news is the 50+mph winds are gone.

Bad News is snow melt, temp in upper village of 31.5 at 6am,the intence squalls JJ was touting on the ssnow phone amounted to 1/8" of
grauppel.
Lower Birdland open ditches and dirt.Lower moonshine 45%+- bare, Murphs' and Lower Grinder have wide bands of crosstrail bare spots.Egans leap
area of Liftline is bare as is most of upper sunrise.Eden looks to be 40-50% bare and You can see brown all over in the woods.Bare patches of various sizes
are everywhere.
There are 2' rings of grass around the trees in Our yard and sticks down of all sizes.
Driving on German Flats was schetchy last night with branches and dead trees littering the road.There will be a dangerous mid snow pack layer of
deadwood in the woods that will require a lot of snow to safely cover.Once the snow pack sets up some cleanup would be in order.
The lack of aux. air compressors will make for a slow recovery as the 10 day foecast is not great.

More Bad :evil: :evil: :evil:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 AM EST THU JAN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EASTERN VERMONT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.

WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AND TAPERING TO SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
LIGHT ICING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH EXISTS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO...OR RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER

Today: Sunny, with a high near 41. West wind between 5 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Tonight: A chance of rain and sleet after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday: Periods of rain. High near 41. South wind between 10 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southwest wind between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind between 8 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28.



Click Map for Forecast

Lat/Lon: 44.12 -72.86 Elevation: 899 ft Warren

[Lostone]

My only argument with the above is that the aux compressors won't help the natural trails, which is where most (but not all) of the damage is.

The snowmaking trails, from my observations, Tuesday, have good depth, but will be in need of grooming magic with snowmaking re-covering, in places.

We really need snow, for the natural trails. :(

[noski]

I am keeping my weather eye to Monday night.....I am willing the weather system to NOT go out to sea.

[JDKT18]

We're watching the weather closely too! Hoping everything gets back to where it was for our week at Sugarbush last week in Jan! :)

[freeheel_skier]

I am keeping my weather eye to Monday night.....I am willing the weather system to NOT go out to sea.

I'll vouch for ya. You have a good weather eye.

[HowieT2]

I don't know about the monday system. The models are conflicting. I think the 19th has the potential for a more significant event.

[atkinson]

Go Figure,

You're just a fount of never-ending positivity! ;)

Anyway, EVERY TRAIL IS STILL OPEN! That's right campers, for all the bare spots and brown, all the trails are skiable. Friday's mixed bag isn't likely to degrade things too much and we are in far better shape than we've been in the last two seasons at this time. The woods are going to take some time to recover, but we hadn't even been in the woods yet last winter.

More snow is on the way. Roger Hill called Monday's storm a Nor'Easter and we've got further snow events lined up for next week. We can bum out about the weather or we can ski and ride all the trails and have fun.

Anybody up for some turns? Yeah!

John

[Tin Woodsman]

Go Figure -

Your forecast is for the 900' elevation in Warren, so it's likely 6-8 degrees too warm vs. what we should expect at mid-mountain. That said, I'm not sure I'll get in line for the Kool-Aid with respect to calling tomorrow "a mixed bag". It will start out as such, but the bulk of the precip will almost certainly be liquid. We get on the path to redemption Friday night into Saturday and should see some fairly consistent snowmaking temps in the extended period. Only question, as others have pointed out, is whether we'll get enough naturalto make the natural trails and, more importantly (to me), the woods skiable again. Sounds like we're starting from scratch in many respects, which really, really sucks.

[HowieT2]

Go Figure -

Your forecast is for the 900' elevation in Warren, so it's likely 6-8 degrees too warm vs. what we should expect at mid-mountain. That said, I'm not sure I'll get in line for the Kool-Aid with respect to calling tomorrow "a mixed bag". It will start out as such, but the bulk of the precip will almost certainly be liquid. We get on the path to redemption Friday night into Saturday and should see some fairly consistent snowmaking temps in the extended period. Only question, as others have pointed out, is whether we'll get enough naturalto make the natural trails and, more importantly (to me), the woods skiable again. Sounds like we're starting from scratch in many respects, which really, really sucks.

I'm in between the two of you. I agree tomorrow does not look good but the temps do improve thereafter and Monday might bring some natural (the latest model runs are promising from what I understand of them). I don't know this for a fact but I would think the upper elevation woods would rehabilitate quickly with the nice base that was in there. Maybe 2 feet of natural and they're good to go???

[HowieT2]

I take back what I said about Monday's event. Things are getting interesting.

[ski_resort_observer]

Very exciting evening, or at least for about 20 min of it, at my place last night.....the wind was ripping thru all day and night, could hear trees/branches breaking all afternoon. Lost power for about 3 hours in the afternoon which wasn't a big deal since I had an unexpected afternoon off since we closed MT Ellen about 10ish so I figured it was the perfect time to take a nap and catch up up some sleep.

Heard a loud pop later in the evening and then the power went off again. I checked outside and the power line was down from a fallen tree and was wrapped around another tree sparking like crazy and setting the tree on fire. Luckily the winds were keeping it from really getting it going. Everytime it started to flame up the wind knocked it down plus since the fuel(trees) were pretty wet I really wasn't all that concerned even tho it was about 50ft from my place.

Called the Waitsfield Fire Dept and within 10 min they were there in strength. It was really quite impressive to see all those fire trucks light flashing lined up right in front of my driveway. Even tho the line down was so close, it's uphill from my pole. so my power remained on as the power company shut the line down right above me and the sparks and fire danger was eliminated. Then they closed my road for the night. For anybody who knows the valley it's Rolston Rd.

The biggest hassle was my DSL modem got screwed up so I had to wait for the yellow tape to be removed that was across the bottom of my road today so I could get to Waitsfield Telecom and replace it.

Back online now , the debis and power line is still down but everything is working. I have pics but it's just a Vermont dirt road with a bunch of trees and other debris on it with the powerline ontop of that. Nothing that special to see. :D

Hats off to the Waitsfield Fire Dept for their quick response.

Edit: As I was just about to post this I see a power company truck coming up the road and just as I am thinking " I bet they are going to shut off the power to put the powerline back up", the power goes off. I love Firefox's feature of restoring where you are when you have to reboot or the power goes off.

So a big thanks to the power company!! NOW everytjing is back to normal.

The winds we had yesterday and last night were strong. When we get more snow and you go back into the trees take caution as your favorite lines could now have new obstacles in the way.

[atkinson]

For the sake of accuracy, we have lost a few trails today. But the Rock is still spinning and there are many options to choose from. Let's hope tomorrow's storm buffs in the base and allows for softer turns!

And keep an eye out for Monday!

John

[Go Figure]

J.A. Thanks for the insult :wink: I am just responding with an accurate report ofe the conditions for our southern Friends.ONE LOOK AT THE MOUNTAIN
AND ANYONE COULD SEE TRAILS WOULD BE CLOSED.If You call the snow phone it says 102 open and the "snow patrol recommends staying on the groomed and or snowmaking trails".
I can say that I see snowmaking on Upper Jester and a number of guns on U Grinder and that and the sneet to come will and up to great cruising in the am.. 8)

As to the NWS alert here is another:MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT ICING TO AFFECT EASTERN VERMONT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

WARMER AIR ALOFT RIDING ATOP NEAR OR SUBFREEZING AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL MEAN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN
MIXED FORM ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT...EITHER AS
SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS... WITH SOME LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN...THUS ENDING ANY
ADDITIONAL ICING THREAT.

AS You can see it is an inversion and interesting as it arrives on the 10 year anniversary of the[98 ice storm :cry:]

Tin I passed on the Kool-Aid also,as it was served warm and had a peculier yellowish color.
The woods will need snow to fill the tree wells and it needs to consolidate.I took a nasty fall a few tears back when tip sank into a well,caught,and ejected me
into an open area.We plan to spend the weekend on snowshoes or hiking boots if it stays firm,stick pitching ,line assessing and line-a-looking for.Otherwise I
am focusing on work and will return when the conditions of powder heaven return.
Now I am going to throw another log in the fireplace,watch the flames dance and enjoy this cold Roxy Rolles.

THINK SNOW :o









t

[Strat]

I can see a big bare spot on Bravo from Moretown Common. Let's just leave it at that, haha...

[Tin Woodsman]

Forecast starting to look a LOT better not just for Monday, but for the extended and the extended extended period. Regardlesso f how much snow we get Monday, snowmaking temps return for a good while thereafter. Then come January 20 or so, there are hints that the arctic doors swing wide open, possibly ushering in some brutally cold air.

[Go Figure]

We are watching a battalion of groomers at work now.Much smoothing is occuring as I type.Its amazing to watch with the telescope as the snow changes from
tooth rattling moguls to corduroy.

[HowieT2]

Forecast starting to look a LOT better not just for Monday, but for the extended and the extended extended period. Regardlesso f how much snow we get Monday, snowmaking temps return for a good while thereafter. Then come January 20 or so, there are hints that the arctic doors swing wide open, possibly ushering in some brutally cold air.

certainly there is no need for despair. By MLK weekend the groomers will be fine. The issue is the natural snow trails and the trees. I was just guestimating about needing 2' feet of natural to get back into the woods. Anyone else care to venture a number. Am I too high, too low?

[ahm]

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 258 AM EST FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENT HAS NOT
BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCENARIOS ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT DATA TONIGHT NOW TRENDING FOR A
LESS ROBUST SYSTEM OR TRACKING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. NEVERTHELESS
LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND ANYTHING FROM SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...
BUT NO NEED TO PLAY UP ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. SOME CONSISTENCY BEING
SHOWN DURING THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST...DRYING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.-- End Changed Discussion --