Sugarbush Opening Survey

[Stumpy]

Take the Survey!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=MQN8V1g5OdhbwMXKwa5riQ_3d_3d

[win]

Remember who has the golden vote, and I am keeping it a secret!

[Stumpy]

How does one obtain a Golden Vote?

I am sure they would be a popular Christmas present!

[HowieT2]

How does one obtain a Golden Vote?

I am sure they would be a popular Christmas present!

It's in those chocolate Croissants from the Warren store.

[boze]

That'd be the Wonka Bar Croissant...either that, or $20MM - your choice

[Lostone]

What??? We take the survey, but it doesn't tell us how the answers are coming out? :?


On the good side for their survey, people can take it who aren't registered, here.

But do we really care about those people? :lol:




Check out the new survey found in this very room. :wink:

[Stumpy]

Here are the results:

http://www.postimage.org/Pq1aL6NA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1aL6NA)

[summitchallenger]

Saturday opening would be awesome....weather is kind of :roll: between now and then...

[Tin Woodsman]

Saturday opening would be awesome....weather is kind of :roll: between now and then...

Au contreire, mon freire

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

The relevant passages:


STRONGEST QG FORCING EVOLVES THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACQUIRES NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEP-LAYER CVA IS MAXIMIZED JUST SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AT 06Z FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC
CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRACKING INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK ON FRIDAY MORNING PER 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS.
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN LACKING...AND NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED FURTHER EAST WITH LOW TRACK. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT WE
WILL BE ON WRN FRINGE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NRN NY...AND DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS VERMONT. ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEYOND
THE SHORT-RANGE PERIOD MAY RESULT IN TOTAL VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES...WITH 2-4 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL
OF THIS IS BASED ON CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
LOW TRACK...AND MAY REQUIRE REFINEMENT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HRS. IF THE CYCLONE CAN DEEPEN MORE QUICKLY WITH A TRACK
FURTHER WEST...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FROM THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTS EWD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF VT.


FOR DAYS 3 INTO 4 ALL MODELS
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON MID/UPPER LVL TROF BECMG CUTOFF AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACRS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPING NEAR CAPE COD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SATURDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOR THE MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
TO DEEPEN QUICKER...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 5H PVA ROUNDING THE TROF
BASE AND FAVORABLE JET COUPLET...THEREFORE WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY
FOR THE GREEN MTNS AND POINTS EASTWARD. SOME UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WL ENHANCE/LIMIT PRECIP IN TYPICAL MTN/VALLEY LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING TO -10C AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 525-531DAM...AND 925MB BTWN -2 AND -4C
SUGGEST PRECIP WL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING
WARMING ON NW FLW COULD RESULT IN SOME MIX FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT QUESTION...IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ARE PULLED
BACK TWD OUR CWA AND POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BASED ON
STRONG 850-500MB OMEGA FIELDS AND GOOD 850-500MB MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND SOME 850 TO 700MB FGEN
FORCING...ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THIS COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW AND GOOD MOISTURE/OMEGA FIELDS IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A JAY
PEAK TO UNDERHILL TO SOUTH LINCOLN LINE..WHICH WL RESULT IN A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COOLING TEMPS WL
ALLOW FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY ACRS ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1500 FT. SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC FLW CONTS AS SFC LOW
PRES TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS UPSLOPE FLW WL CONT
TO PRODUCE SW ACRS THE MTNS WITH LLVL CAA CONTINUING. STATE
COLLEGE ENSEMBLES PAGE SHOWS 1 TO 3 STD BLW NORMAL 85/925MB
TEMPS...ALONG WITH A 1 T 2 STD BLW NORMAL 5H TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THEREFORE WL DROP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BLW GMOS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -10 AND -12C AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR -6C WITH BRISK NW
WINDS...SUGGEST TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL INTERACT
WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW ACRS OUR CWA. THE 12Z GFS 850-500MB MOISTURE AND OMEGA
PROGS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE ACRS OUR CWA...AND WOULD SUPPORT A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MORE IN HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE REGIONS. HOWEVER...FEEL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE ASSOCIATED
WITH NW FLW AND LIMITED PWS...WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ATTM AND
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TEMPS DEVELOPS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LARGE DIFFERENCES
OCCUR IN THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER
LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 00Z TUES...WITH 985MB LOW PRES NEAR PHI BY
00Z TUES. MEANWHILE...GFS SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES MOVING ACRS OUR
NORTHERN ZNS AND COMPLETELY SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
THE 00Z ENSEMBLES IS A GOOD COMPROMISE...SHOWING A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES WITH SOME MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS OUR CWA. WL CONT TO MENTION
LOW CHC POPS WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BLW NORMAL...PER PROGGED
ENSEMBLE 85H TEMPS BTWN -5 AND -10C.


In English, this means cold and snowy starting early Thursday evening for the next 5-6 days. Confidence isn't high on the details, but the initial snow and the subsequent cold are the better bets. Have to incur some rainfall prior to getting there, but by Saturday, they'll have had 36 hours of snowmaking temps and 2-4" or more from the big gun to work with. Shaping up to be a fine weekend.

[win]

Tha's what we see as well!

[boze]

Win,

It's that last part that is most interesting / operative, i.e., the "...Shaping up to be a fine weekend" part.

It THAT what you see, too??? Because as we all know 'fine weekends' = skiing

:wink:

[HowieT2]

Having never been to to opening day (skiing that is) are there any special customs/traditions I should know about?
Also, what time is the bravo going to start?

[Lostone]

are there any special customs/traditions I should know about?

You have to carry my skis, and you alos have to buy the drinks.

Now, if you'd been to other opening days, here, you'd be telling the newbies they had to carry your skis, and... :lol:

[HowieT2]

are there any special customs/traditions I should know about?

You have to carry my skis, and you alos have to buy the drinks.

Now, if you'd been to other opening days, here, you'd be telling the newbies they had to carry your skis, and... :lol:

I'll gladly buy you a drink (in addition to the one I owe you from last year). I'd even carry skis as long as I don't have to dress up as Little Bo Peep (let's see who gets that movie reference).

[Stumpy]

http://www.postimage.org/aV1lWqv0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1lWqv0)