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beelze
04-13-2007, 07:38 AM
Impossible to cut/paste the email with html, however Snow-forecast.com just put up the first forecast for Sun and it shows

Sun Morn Sun Afternoon
35 km/h 55 km/h

mod. snow heavy snow

6cm 14cm


For the metrically challenged, thats about 8" and breezy :) Fingers crossed we top out at 2 feet, a final present for all us weekday people!

beelze
04-13-2007, 11:12 AM
I uploaded some weather model output into the gallery http://forums.skimrv.com/modules.php?set_albumName=WeatherModel-for-4-16&op=modload&name=gallery&file=index&include=view_album.php

it looks like we should be ok with the rain/snow line, at least for the most part.

Brief explanation: heights show the elevation of a certain pressure, in meters. So in these we see
that the 700mb pressure is about 2730m or 9000 feet. 900mb is about our base height.

Looking at 6 hour precip totals during the storm, it looks on the order of 1.5 inch, give or take, so figure 15 or so inches of snow. Fingers crossed :)

and now its time to go get some runs in!

smootharc
04-13-2007, 04:36 PM
From a purely snow focused PROBABILITY/POSSIBILITIES standpoint (Depth/quality)....rank Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.

Anyone want to hazard an educated guess ? Suggest the best possibility for the best powder. I'm going a bit in circles, and I realize we've been a bit out there for predictions to get too specific. But we're getting closer.....

Stay Sunday and Monday ? Bag Sunday, come back Monday/Tuesday ? Tuesday onward ?

Strat
04-13-2007, 05:19 PM
Killer winds are gonna be rough...

Roger Hill's now saying 1-2 ft at the summits, 2-7" at the bases...

BushMogulMaster
04-13-2007, 05:34 PM
Killer winds are gonna be rough...

Roger Hill's now saying 1-2 ft at the summits, 2-7" at the bases...

Someone should check with Roemer... I'll bet he's forecasting 90-100". :wink:

:lol:

Mike_451
04-13-2007, 05:52 PM
For Jay Peak, 10 inches for Killington, and Rain for Sugarbush

Lostone
04-13-2007, 06:34 PM
NOAA says Snow mainly after 2PM, Sunday.

Then snow for the next??? days.

This is sooooo weird! :shock: :D

HowieT2
04-13-2007, 08:32 PM
I'm having a hard time getting a handle on this. Is this a purely snow event?

freeheel_skier
04-13-2007, 09:07 PM
I'm having a hard time getting a handle on this. Is this a purely snow event?

I hope so! :shock: This afternoon/evening there has been some funky precip :?

kcyanks1
04-13-2007, 10:37 PM
I'm having a hard time getting a handle on this. Is this a purely snow event?

I hope so! :shock: This afternoon/evening there has been some funky precip :?

Funky precip in the MRV? Any NCP?

Tin Woodsman
04-14-2007, 12:09 AM
I'm having a hard time getting a handle on this. Is this a purely snow event?

I hope so! :shock: This afternoon/evening there has been some funky precip :?

Funky precip in the MRV? Any NCP?

That's what I heard from an eyewitness.

HowieT2
04-14-2007, 06:55 AM
Are we looking at the likelihood of wind holds on monday?

freeheel_skier
04-14-2007, 07:21 AM
I'm having a hard time getting a handle on this. Is this a purely snow event?

I hope so! :shock: This afternoon/evening there has been some funky precip :?

Funky precip in the MRV? Any NCP?

Yes :(

Lostone
04-14-2007, 08:21 AM
We had a wet snow, on the mountain, but it was snow, the entire time I was out, and every time I looked out, after I got in.

Snowing now. 8)


Look for the torchlight parade on the 4th. :shock: :lol:

kcyanks1
04-14-2007, 08:42 AM
I'm having a hard time getting a handle on this. Is this a purely snow event?

I hope so! :shock: This afternoon/evening there has been some funky precip :?

Funky precip in the MRV? Any NCP?

Yes :(

Nooo :-( Are conditions holding up? I'm sure snow depths are fine, but is the surface still good?

Strat
04-14-2007, 09:26 AM
It's that time of year, we've sorta accepted it... things definitely moistened up on the mountain, secondary condition is now wet snow....

We couldn't stay in super powder land forever, even right after this monster Noreaster we'll probably head back to some warmer temps and wetness....

When they keep saying "2 inches of fresh", "5 inches of fresh" what they mean is some moist snow fell over night and then temps warmed back up over freezing... we're not in continuously cold mode anymore...

beelze
04-14-2007, 10:16 AM
It still looks good for mostly, if not all, snow at summit elevation, 15" +/- 3. Areas below about 1500 feet probably get a mix of everything, though anything over 1000 foot is just a touch over freezing late day Sunday. The good news is that the air gets progressively colder higher up (no inversion). So just keep the fingers crossed it stays cold. Perhaps not a terrible thing if its not fluffy snow as it will be windy Sun. afternoon and Mon, order of 45-70mph winds at the summit.

ps - just remember its a hobby. this is all based on the 06Z GFS model, there will be another update (12z) around 1pm edt

Yard Sale
04-14-2007, 02:33 PM
Comin up this PM any thoughts on conditoins for tomorrow. Thanks

noski
04-14-2007, 05:45 PM
Look for the torchlight parade on the 4th. :shock: :lol: NO NO NO, I told you, that's where I draw the line. This noski does have her limits. There will be fireworks, though.... but no dang torchlite parade on the fourth of July! :lol:

Mike_451
04-14-2007, 07:30 PM
It's that time of year, we've sorta accepted it... things definitely moistened up on the mountain, secondary condition is now wet snow....

We couldn't stay in super powder land forever, even right after this monster Noreaster we'll probably head back to some warmer temps and wetness....

When they keep saying "2 inches of fresh", "5 inches of fresh" what they mean is some moist snow fell over night and then temps warmed back up over freezing... we're not in continuously cold mode anymore...

Yeah, not a bad thing though assuming we will have a killer base for this time of year and a forecast that would yield some nice spring corn (again :?) and there is enough of that that it should stick arround for a while :P

Lostone
04-14-2007, 07:36 PM
No idea on tomorrow, but today was great.

freeheel_skier
04-14-2007, 07:43 PM
Great yes. A little stickey today but......Great! Absolutly! Who can complain? It's freaking April! :P

jwt
04-14-2007, 08:08 PM
Statement as of 4:07 PM EDT on April 14, 2007


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 8 am Sunday to 6 PM EDT
Monday...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for all of central and northern Vermont... as well as
all of northern New York... for heavy snow in excess of 6 inches.
The warning is in effect from 8 am Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday. The
Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

Widespread rain and snow is expected to overspread all of the
warning area during the late morning to early afternoon hours on
Sunday. As temperatures cool Sunday night... precipitation will
change to all snow... which will fall heavily at times through
Monday morning. As milder air filters into the region during the
day on Monday... snow will once again mix with... and possibly
change to rain at times across the region. Total snow accumulation
is expected to vary widely during this event... with the heaviest
totals of 10 to 20 inches possible across the northern
Adirondacks. Elsewhere... accumulations will generally range from 7
to 14 inches... though locally higher amounts are possible along
eastern facing slopes of the northern Green Mountains.

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... your local media... or
go to www.Weather.Gov/Burlington for further updates on this
weather situation.

Lostone
04-14-2007, 08:13 PM
And Noski, we're just trying to make up for the missed torchlight parade from the New Year celebration. It will be fun!

Just think... You've never had a Warren parade where everyone wore parkas.

Of course, some of you neighbors (Ok... so most of you neighbors) will want to kill you, but isn't that really just a small price? :shock: :twisted:

skiladi
04-15-2007, 11:08 AM
Statement as of 4:07 PM EDT on April 14, 2007


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 8 am Sunday to 6 PM EDT
Monday...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for all of central and northern Vermont... as well as
all of northern New York... for heavy snow in excess of 6 inches.
The warning is in effect from 8 am Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday. The
Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

Widespread rain and snow is expected to overspread all of the
warning area during the late morning to early afternoon hours on
Sunday. As temperatures cool Sunday night... precipitation will
change to all snow... which will fall heavily at times through
Monday morning. As milder air filters into the region during the
day on Monday... snow will once again mix with... and possibly
change to rain at times across the region. Total snow accumulation
is expected to vary widely during this event... with the heaviest
totals of 10 to 20 inches possible across the northern
Adirondacks. Elsewhere... accumulations will generally range from 7
to 14 inches... though locally higher amounts are possible along
eastern facing slopes of the northern Green Mountains.

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... your local media... or
go to www.Weather.Gov/Burlington for further updates on this
weather situation.

Hmmmm...Northern? Gonna be a tight call.

HowieT2
04-15-2007, 01:06 PM
In what form is it coming down?

ski_resort_observer
04-15-2007, 03:16 PM
In what form is it coming down?

A pic is worth a thousand posts.....this is in the valley, must be really dumping on the mountain
http://forums.skimrv.com/albums/MRVpics/MRVsprgsnow.jpg

Lostone
04-15-2007, 03:32 PM
Well,I just got off the mountain and I think it is coming down as a soft, sweet velvety snow. :D

How many ways can someone say "This is wonderful!"? :D :D

I think... I may have heard them all in the past few hours. 8)

mattlucas
04-15-2007, 04:03 PM
I hope you all get to enjoy it, I don't think this drive is doable from nyc tonight.

Tin Woodsman
04-15-2007, 04:22 PM
In what form is it coming down?

Just look at the MRG cam. It's still operating and it's showing a ridiculously heavy snowfall right now.

Mike_451
04-15-2007, 04:43 PM
I am heading up tuesday night

ski_resort_observer
04-15-2007, 05:34 PM
Wow, this is some heavy stuff, already the tree limbs are laying down and this is just the start. The radio advised, " expect power outages". Should be a fun 24 hrs. Better than facing a flood, that's for sure.

http://forums.skimrv.com/albums/album14/MRVsprgsnow2.sized.jpg

smootharc
04-15-2007, 05:44 PM
....with family. Great pow, great times ! Drove them home in safety yesterday night after skiing. In at 1am. Slept 2am to 7am. Hit office until 11. Pretended to work.

Drove back up/over here solo. Miserable trip. Arrived in Warren 5:30 tonight. Staying until the last powder morsel is gone.

Got me a SERIOUS case of powder fever. I've tried shots. I've tried pills. I've tried shrinks. Nothing works. Only thing that works is more powder !

See you all on slopes. The forecasts for epic-osity seem to be panning out. Be safe !

boze
04-15-2007, 10:07 PM
Smootharc - I know your sacrifice. Sold my soul Easter weekend for 2 days of bliss (Sat & Mon) and I can say only this: It Was Worth It.

EOM