castlerock
04-05-2007, 04:09 PM
WEDS INTO THURS...FCST ONCE AGAIN BECMGS VERY INTERESTING WITH
EVOLUTION OF FULL LATITUDE TROF...GOOD PHASING OF SOUTHERN/NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DEEP DEVELOPMENT OF
CUTOFF OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE WEDS AND MOVING INTO SNE BY 12Z THURS. THIS DEEP CIRCULATION
BECMGS NEGATIVELY TILTED ON THURS AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER CAPE
COD. 00Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS 2 TO 3 STD BELOW NORMAL SFC LOW PRES NEAR
CAPE COD BY 12Z THURS...ALONG WITH 1 TO 2 STD BELOW NORMAL 5H HGHTS
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHICH INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...00Z GFS
ENSEMBLES CONTS TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING OF DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TROF
AND KEEPING SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE...ECMWF/CANADIAN
MAINTAINS A NORTHERN CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PLACE OUR FA
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRNT.
BASED ON SEVERAL RUNS OF GOOD CONTINUITY AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE ENSEMBLES DATA WL TREND TOWARD THE DEEPER AND COOLER GFS
SOLUTION ATTM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT LATE WEDS INTO THURS. SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAVY WET SNOW
EVENT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN.
And from Josh Fox:
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
If we can convince the powers that be at MRG to stay open later than Easter Sunday, there could another big easter egg discovery courtesy of mother nature. It is a bit early and medium range computer models are not exactly aligned as of yet but the possibility of a mid to late week storm exists producing snowfall of the more synoptic (as opposed to the fluffy terrain) variety.
EVOLUTION OF FULL LATITUDE TROF...GOOD PHASING OF SOUTHERN/NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DEEP DEVELOPMENT OF
CUTOFF OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE WEDS AND MOVING INTO SNE BY 12Z THURS. THIS DEEP CIRCULATION
BECMGS NEGATIVELY TILTED ON THURS AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER CAPE
COD. 00Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS 2 TO 3 STD BELOW NORMAL SFC LOW PRES NEAR
CAPE COD BY 12Z THURS...ALONG WITH 1 TO 2 STD BELOW NORMAL 5H HGHTS
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHICH INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...00Z GFS
ENSEMBLES CONTS TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING OF DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TROF
AND KEEPING SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE...ECMWF/CANADIAN
MAINTAINS A NORTHERN CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PLACE OUR FA
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRNT.
BASED ON SEVERAL RUNS OF GOOD CONTINUITY AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE ENSEMBLES DATA WL TREND TOWARD THE DEEPER AND COOLER GFS
SOLUTION ATTM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT LATE WEDS INTO THURS. SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAVY WET SNOW
EVENT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN.
And from Josh Fox:
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
If we can convince the powers that be at MRG to stay open later than Easter Sunday, there could another big easter egg discovery courtesy of mother nature. It is a bit early and medium range computer models are not exactly aligned as of yet but the possibility of a mid to late week storm exists producing snowfall of the more synoptic (as opposed to the fluffy terrain) variety.