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ski_resort_observer
02-16-2007, 07:26 AM
Roger Hill just announced on WDEV that another big storm is setting up for around next friday. We shall see. :D

freeheel_skier
02-16-2007, 07:50 AM
:shock: WAHT?! WHAT?! WHAT?! :shock: :D

castlerock
02-16-2007, 08:31 AM
Roger Hill just announced on WDEV that another big storm is setting up for around next friday. We shall see. :D

This morning's NWS forecast discussion alludes to the potential as well:

THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATED A 985MB SFC
LOW AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH NEAR COASTAL NJ NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD /12Z THURSDAY/. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR
POTENTIAL...WITH A 971MB SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE
THURSDAY...2/23. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH A
POSITIVE TILT H5 TROUGH AND MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE EXTENDED.

So Go ECMWF !

BushMogulMaster
02-16-2007, 10:28 AM
I've got my fingers crossed!

Wow... with the awful start to this season, who would have ever guessed that it would be one of the most epic!

Mike_451
02-16-2007, 09:51 PM
Why am I stuck down south on buisness? Hopefully things will last untill the end of March, afterall we still have another 100+ inches to go.

Strat
02-16-2007, 11:31 PM
Since we're trying to fly out to New York and then the Carribean on Friday, I'm going with the GFS on this one...

Like we need more snow anyway, haha...

BushMogulMaster
02-16-2007, 11:44 PM
Since we're trying to fly out to New York and then the Carribean on Friday, I'm going with the GFS on this one...

Like we need more snow anyway, haha...

Yes, we do! Ignore the GFS. One can never have too much snow, unless it gets to the point where the snow level touches the chairs. Then that might be an issue, since most of the lifts are either in the middle of trails, or cross trails.

I say BRING IT ON!!! I'll take another 50+". WOOHOO! SNOW! :D


Please please please, continue to THINK SNOW!

BushMogulMaster
02-16-2007, 11:48 PM
"BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO
DIVERGE. GFS HAS A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EUROPEAN
MODEL WOULD CUT OFF A 500MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND TRACK
STORM SYSTEM NEAR NEW ENGLAND COAST. EUROPEAN SOLUTION WOULD
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM.
COLD...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THU/FRI ON BACKSIDE OF POTENTIAL STORM
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. &&"

Let's go with European. :wink:

castlerock
02-17-2007, 09:28 AM
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BIG EVENT WEDNESDAY AS LOW THAT MVS OVER AREA...TRANSFERS OFF THE
COAST...ENHANCING DUE TO WARM OCEAN TEMPS. THIS COULD PROVIDE AREA
WITH LARGE QPF...BUT MDLS DO DIFFER STILL AS TO TRACK...SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR -SW IN FOR NOW.

GO EURO!

Mike_451
02-17-2007, 01:09 PM
And, a few weeks ago it seemed like it might never snow again :shock:

castlerock
02-17-2007, 03:21 PM
It is looking like a couple of clipper systems instead of a coastal event.

A CHANGE TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AS LONG WAVE TROF IN
THE NORTHEAST TO BE REPLACED BY A FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. DURING THE TRANSITION SHORT WAVE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
TIMING OF THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST FLOW. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS. AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOLLOWED A SLOWER SOLUTION OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES VS OPERATIONAL
GFS FOR TIMING OF POTENTIAL NEXT STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND.

Strat
02-17-2007, 03:34 PM
GFS is indeed just showing a little clipper now, coming late thu/early fri...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs132hr_sfc_prcp.gif

BushMogulMaster
02-18-2007, 05:00 PM
Darn... this one seems to have fizzled down to 1-3 inches of wet snow :cry: