Forecast for the next couple of days

[win]

I am going to go out on a limb. I was away for a few days down South where there was no snow! As I drove up yesterday it was brown in Hanover and only a dusting in Bethel and no real cover until I started up the Granville Gulch. Last night the wind blew fiercely, and as I looked up the Mountain this morning the natural slopes were wind blown. However, the trails where we have made snow with the exception of Downspout were actually quite nice. I only had time for a couple of runs but liked what I skied. Tonight the temperatures are warm and snowmaking tonight is going to challenge our crew, but things will change after tonight. I think the best skiing and riding tomorrow will be up top on Mt Ellen if the winds die down and each day will get bettter. We have a chance of a very nice snow surprise on Monday with colder temperatures and very good snow making opportunities next week. It may be that the weather pattern has changed and that the next couple of weeks could be what we have been looking for. Hope is never a method but I am hoping!

With respect to snowmaking, temperatures are causing us to stay up high. When temps come down we want to get more open on Gate House - like Slowpoke- and then move to Snowball and Spring Fling (Sugarboarder: I want to race on Thursday is possible). At ME we need Which Way next after completing North Star and then we have to see whether we go for Sunny D area or Inverness for GMVS. Cliffs will come after those. The challenge we have been facing all winter is the extreme variations in temperatures between the base areas and the summits. They have been larger than normal.
We

We run full snowmaking capacity at both mountains whenever we can regardless of the cost. However, our production capabilty is a function of the ambient temperatures and the humidity. The colder and the drier it is the more we can produce. If it is 28 degrees and humid, we use a lot of compressed air and pay GMP a lot of $ to make little snow. Unfortunately, that is chemistry. So hope for low temperatures and dry air and we can crank! That way we can make a lot of good quality snow at a lesser cost to us!

Think real snow! It is due!

[ahm]

Just gotta love this one from NOAA for this morning in Warren:

Rain showers likely before 10am, then snow likely between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. North wind between 7 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[ahm]

LITTLE CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD POPS AS EVENING SHIFT UPDATE LAST
NIGHT HAD TODAYS FROPA WELL DEPICTED. ADJUSTED POPS GENERALLY
UPWARD FROM 06Z SUNDAY ON...AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN UPCOMING
PRECIP EVENT.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOW EVENT...BUT DON`T THINK
WE`LL EXCEED THE 9 INCHES IN 24 HOURS TO QUALIFY FOR A WATCH.
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY IN UPCOMING SHIFTS AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES THE 1ST/2ND PERIOD IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AFTER PASSAGE OF SURFACE LOW
AND UPPER SHORTWAVE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS AREA. COLDEST TEMPS TO
BE AROUND MIDWEEK...THEN LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE.

[random_ski_guy]

950 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007

...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
SNOW FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE FRONT...THE
FIRST ARRIVING SUNDAY...AND THE SECOND AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE ADDITION
OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL APPEAR ON SUNDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MONDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL CARRY MORE
ENERGY...AND WILL PRODUCE MORE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE LONG
DURATION OF SNOWFALL...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL HELP
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS BY TUESDAY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

[ski_resort_observer]

Already snowing.....hope this is a good sign for the next couple of days. :D

[BushMogulMaster]

Already snowing.....hope this is a good sign for the next couple of days. :D

I think it is! Check out the NWS 3000' forecast:


Today: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Periods of snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 15. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

M.L.King Day: Periods of snow. High near 19. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values between -3 and 2. Calm wind becoming northwest between 7 and 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Therefore, we're looking at totals of 7-14" through Monday evening, and they still haven't released an accumulation number for Monday night. Hopefull we'll see 9-16"!!! :D

[BushMogulMaster]

Also... we're officially upgraded to a "Winter Storm Warning." Things are looking good! :D

[Strat]

Also... we're officially upgraded to a "Winter Storm Warning." Things are looking good! :D

I get nervous when they go full-on Winter Storm Warning... they always seem so... I dunno... overconfident... not like I don't want to see the snow, I just refuse to really get my hopes up...

[sugarboarder]

Also... we're officially upgraded to a "Winter Storm Warning." Things are looking good! :D

OK - this is better...if they cancel my race at Bromley Monday due to SNOW that is a step in the right direction! An actual pow day Tuesday would just make EVERYTHING better for EVERYBODY!! http://www.bomberonline.com/VBulletin/images/smilies/biggthumpup.gif

[freeheel_skier]

Got all my chores done! :D Going to go out and enjoy the new fluffy fluff! 8)

[Shorty Anvil]

What's the latest?

[freeheel_skier]

Got about 4" of freshy fresh :D Tomorrow maybe 8" :shock: who knows :? It's gonna be good!

[Shorty Anvil]

awesome. carve just one turn for me in abesntia...

[random_ski_guy]

Richie, file a trip report for us.

PS I'm finally coming up the week of the 28th. finally made a commitment.

[BushMogulMaster]

weather.com just upped their valley accumulation for today from 2-4" to 5-8" with an addition 1-3" overnight and tomorrow. That must be a good sign :D . I think we'll see a foot or more on the summits today. Keeping the fingers crossed!

Think snow!

[sugarboarder]

weather.com just upped their valley accumulation for today from 2-4" to 5-8" with an addition 1-3" overnight and tomorrow. That must be a good sign :D . I think we'll see a foot or more on the summits today. Keeping the fingers crossed!

Think snow!

4" of sugar on plate

[freeheel_skier]

sugar is good...ncp is bad :(

[BushMogulMaster]

weather.com just upped their valley accumulation for today from 2-4" to 5-8" with an addition 1-3" overnight and tomorrow. That must be a good sign :D . I think we'll see a foot or more on the summits today. Keeping the fingers crossed!

Think snow!

4" of sugar on plate

I officially don't listen to ANY forecasts EVER again! :x

[random_ski_guy]

weather.com just upped their valley accumulation for today from 2-4" to 5-8" with an addition 1-3" overnight and tomorrow. That must be a good sign :D . I think we'll see a foot or more on the summits today. Keeping the fingers crossed!

Think snow!

4" of sugar on plate

I officially don't listen to ANY forecasts EVER again! :x

Really? 'cause I got a something for ya. The NWS is talking upslope event this Saturday. Those always produce good snow... It's a lock! Double down! :lol:

COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE SW
FLW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ON FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WL
HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES NEAR THE BENCHMARK LATE FRIDAY...BUT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TOO FARTHER EAST TO IMPACT OUR FA ATTM. WL CONT
TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
OUR FA. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO FA ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

[BushMogulMaster]

weather.com just upped their valley accumulation for today from 2-4" to 5-8" with an addition 1-3" overnight and tomorrow. That must be a good sign :D . I think we'll see a foot or more on the summits today. Keeping the fingers crossed!

Think snow!

4" of sugar on plate

I officially don't listen to ANY forecasts EVER again! :x

Really? 'cause I got a something for ya. The NWS is talking upslope event this Saturday. Those always produce good snow... It's a lock! Double down! :lol:

COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE SW
FLW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ON FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WL
HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES NEAR THE BENCHMARK LATE FRIDAY...BUT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TOO FARTHER EAST TO IMPACT OUR FA ATTM. WL CONT
TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
OUR FA. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO FA ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

Well... since I was expecting 12"+ today and we got 2", maybe if I expect 0" we'll get 24"??? :wink:

[sugarboarder]

sugar is good...ncp is bad :(

Whatz "ncp"??

[BushMogulMaster]

sugar is good...ncp is bad :(

Whatz "ncp"??

Non Crystallized Precipitation

:D

[freeheel_skier]

sugar is good...ncp is bad :(

Whatz "ncp"??

Non Crystallized Precipitation

:D


YES!