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View Full Version : Turning the Page: Weather 2.0



Tin Woodsman
01-08-2007, 02:36 PM
Since the last Weather thread coincided with a distinct period of suck, I am turning the page and starting a new weather thread. Please take discussion of racing, rumored sales to Intrawest, and UFOs to their intended threads.

With that, I just clicked on the MRG weather page and noted a distinct reversal of the temp profile just in the last hour or two with a spike in the winds. After rising steadily through the morning, the temp peaked at the base of MRG at 40 plus degrees before falling back to 38 in the last hour or so. My sense is that the front is coming through. Eyewitness reports of snow falling in Rochester as of about 10-11AM this morning, so the cold air is coming our way.

ski_resort_observer
01-08-2007, 02:56 PM
Yup, windy, starting to cool off alittle at my house but see alot of blue sky at the moment, that probably will change. Not much precipitation, tho tonight is best chance of something decent, is seen for the next 5 days...maybe they are wrong, hope so.

http://forums.skimrv.com/albums/album14/valleyweather.jpg

sugarboarder
01-08-2007, 03:00 PM
Intrawest has a great racing program where you compete against UFO's to see who can create the worst weather. :P

Tin Woodsman
01-08-2007, 03:20 PM
Yup, windy, starting to cool off alittle at my house but see alot of blue sky at the moment, that probably will change. Not much precipitation, tho tonight is best chance of something decent, is seen for the next 5 days...maybe they are wrong, hope so.

http://forums.skimrv.com/albums/album14/valleyweather.jpg

Wind sock still indicating a strong wind from the south. Ugh.

shadyjay
01-08-2007, 09:51 PM
Let me say this about the weather:
you don't have 65 degree temps in Vermont in January without paying for it down the road.

So on Sat, before I suited up in shorts and took the 'Cruiser for a spin to the Berlin (S)Mall, I performed a sacrafice to Ullr - I'm bald again and if my ritual holds true, it'll dump soon. Even the gods of GCT (H/M/M) are exposed and are gonna give us some of what we desire. And soon! I've got friends in the flatlands who are itchin to ride, and a bro who's flying in from NYC at the end of the month to tear it up.

It's gonna get cold and STAY COLD FOR A WHILE, I assure everyone. It better!

-Jay

Lostone
01-08-2007, 09:56 PM
I really really hope it works!!! 8)

Strat
01-09-2007, 07:23 AM
Let me say this about the weather:
you don't have 65 degree temps in Vermont in January without paying for it down the road.

So on Sat, before I suited up in shorts and took the 'Cruiser for a spin to the Berlin (S)Mall, I performed a sacrafice to Ullr - I'm bald again and if my ritual holds true, it'll dump soon. Even the gods of GCT (H/M/M) are exposed and are gonna give us some of what we desire. And soon! I've got friends in the flatlands who are itchin to ride, and a bro who's flying in from NYC at the end of the month to tear it up.

It's gonna get cold and STAY COLD FOR A WHILE, I assure everyone. It better!

-Jay

Maybe you should get another tattoo?

Can't hurt... well except your skin... Haha...

8)

noski
01-09-2007, 08:10 AM
I am willing, for the collective good, to be your sacrificial offering. Put me on skis. Just let me get my affairs in order.

Lostone
01-09-2007, 08:21 AM
BURN HER!!!!! uh... :oops: I mean put her on skis! :twisted:


Just let her get her affairs in order... and let me get my batteries charged for my video camera. :lol:

smootharc
01-09-2007, 09:00 AM
"Wicker Man" way too many times (the original, not the recent Hollywood disaster).

Chill back on Wicker, and up your dosage of "Sound of Music", you pagan ritualists !

Mike451
01-09-2007, 09:09 AM
What the heck does all this have to do with weather, o wait, its not dumping Pow so who gives a crap. Untill we have some dumpage to discuss, for now Ufo's from Interwest, and forcing NoSki to Ski, (or snowboard :twisted: ), is a hell of alot more fun.


We should also keep on discussing the various pagan rituals that may lead to some dumpage, as we need some major dumpage, so that we can't get to the mountain because the roads all have 5 feet of snow on them. Except for Freeheel skier, who will just free-heel his way to the hill, and have all 5 feet of fresh pow to himself.

My Pastor tells me that if I pray to Ullr, that I will go to hell, but I don't care because I will do anything for a Pow Day, including sell my self to the devil :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

Anyway with Global warming, we will all supposedly be in hell in a few years anyway. (Again just joking arround, I Hope :roll: )

And, I saw this strage UFO floating arround in the sky last night, had lots of bright lights, and a big Interwest Sticker on the side, Did I mention, The UFO abducted me, and they poked and prodded me, and did some experiments. In addition, Win was onboard (explains where he has been the last few days) negotiating a contract to Sell Sugarbush.

(Once Again, I am not serious, and if you think I am, well screw you :twisted: )

I hope I havent taken this to much farther off topic..... :wink:

noski
01-09-2007, 09:54 AM
"Wicker Man" way too many times (the original, not the recent Hollywood disaster).

Chill back on Wicker, and up your dosage of "Sound of Music", you pagan ritualists !

Wait till you hear me heading downhill......
"...The hills are aliiiiiiive, with Noski's screeeeeeaminggg...." I request the presence of sled hauling mechanic at this ritual. Somebody pm him.

sugarboarder
01-09-2007, 10:06 AM
Go figure dept. - I have a friend whose parents live in New Zealand. Here's what she just emailed me:

"I spoke to my parents in New Zealand on the weekend and they're still waiting for summer. It was the coldest December in 80 years in Wellington, all the Xmas campers were freezing and it' s still too cold to sit out on the deck without a fleece after 6pm. Apparently they've been told it won't get warm until February." 8)

As an aside - never discuss hemispherical weather patterns with grocery store clerks. Tonight one asked me if it was getting colder outside, to which I answered no of course. A conversation about the wacky winter ensued and I related the above about New Zealand experiencing cold weather in December and January - and the clerk responded "yeah I know, it's cold and snowy in New Mexico too" to which I responded "but it is supposed to be WARM in New Zealand right now" and she said "well, that's because they are so far south". :shock:

Note - She's right in a way, but I don't think the full understanding was there. :wink:

sugarboarder
01-09-2007, 10:10 AM
"Wicker Man" way too many times (the original, not the recent Hollywood disaster).

Chill back on Wicker, and up your dosage of "Sound of Music", you pagan ritualists !

Wait till you hear me heading downhill......
"...The hills are aliiiiiiive, with Noski's screeeeeeaminggg...." I request the presence of sled hauling mechanic at this ritual. Somebody pm him.

We'll put a bungee on ya - much easier to retrieve the body that way...and entertaining for the kidz! :wink:

ski_resort_observer
01-09-2007, 01:45 PM
Wow, currently snowing very hard, medium size flakes, right now. Probably will stop in 5 minutes and the sun will come out. :lol:

01-09-2007, 01:49 PM
Wow, currently snowing very hard, medium size flakes, right now. Probably will stop in 5 minutes and the sun will come out. :lol:
The radar shows a pretty nice band extending all the way over from Lake Ontario. Hopefully that flow will persist for a while...

noski
01-09-2007, 02:13 PM
Wow, currently snowing very hard, medium size flakes, right now. Probably will stop in 5 minutes and the sun will come out. :lol:

Check the cam..... http://www.madrivervalley.com

edit. 3:02pm, now only snowing lightly downtown, but looks heavier at elevation. Forecast is for more squalls continuing overnight.

daevious
01-09-2007, 03:17 PM
We just came off the mountain at South, where it is dumping. It hasn't let up.

greenmtnboy
01-09-2007, 03:37 PM
I remember growing up in Vermont, we had a year just like this in 1973. We got 30 inches of snow all winter. Most of the precip was rain. My friend reminded me of the gas shortage too. 55 mile an hour speed limits and a restricted number of gallons pumped.

Back 11 years ago, we also had a very wet fall, right into February. All hell broke loose in March and April and we skied at Jay on their last day in 3 feet of powder. There mighit have been about 75 people there that day.

ski_resort_observer
01-09-2007, 03:40 PM
Not sure what's going on but Norm's webcam seems to be stuck on 10:53 AM, anyone else seeing this?

smootharc
01-09-2007, 03:50 PM
certainly a beautiful sight, at least as of 30 seconds ago. Yahoo !

ski_resort_observer
01-09-2007, 04:08 PM
The Mad River Glen cam looks pretty sweet http://www.madriverglen.com/?Page=cams.html Hope this is a sign that winter is arriving. The NWS seems to backing off of a big warm-up forecast for us this weekend.

Plowboy
01-09-2007, 04:09 PM
pics

http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i273/MX51/IMG_0635.jpg

http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i273/MX51/IMG_0634.jpg

ski_resort_observer
01-09-2007, 04:13 PM
Nice! What do you tell your kids when they ask why the heck are they posing for this photo? :wink: :lol:

I'll play too since Norm is still stuck on this morning. Most of the time you can double what I have at my place near the Mad River to what's on the mountain.
http://forums.skimrv.com/albums/album14/snowf.jpg

Wahoo, Norm's just got updated, now that's what it's supposed to look like. :D

smootharc
01-09-2007, 04:58 PM
....what do the next 5-6 days appear to have in store for us ? Anybody with current info/thoughts/hopes ?

Certainly a backing off of predicted warmer temps by NWS is a good start !

Plowboy
01-09-2007, 08:19 PM
Nice! What do you tell your kids when they ask why the heck are they posing for this photo? :wink: :lol:

Ask? Their a couple of Ham's. His brother took this pic. Oh yea don't leave your car in the Mad Mountain Tavern parking lot over night in the year 2014. It will get burried. :lol:
http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i273/MX51/IMG_0636.jpg

Lostone
01-09-2007, 09:55 PM
I'd love to be wrong, but I'm still hearing Eye on the Sky saying warm until Sat, or so. :(

shadyjay
01-09-2007, 10:08 PM
Long - term according to NWS/NOAA shows highs in the teens for next week, overnight 0 to 5 below. That sounds promising. Now if it would only precipitate bigtime during that period, then you know it'd be of the frozen variety.

-JH

Tin Woodsman
01-09-2007, 10:35 PM
I'd love to be wrong, but I'm still hearing Eye on the Sky saying warm until Sat, or so. :(

F eye in the sky. NWS BTV sez:




MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE CWA RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA FRI MORN. HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR JUST BLW FREEZING FOR ONSET
OF PRECIP. FRNTL SYSTEM SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY...BFR MVG SOUTH OF THE AREA. VERY LITTLE TEMP RANGE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT...SO EXPECTING POTENTIAL MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIP FOR MUCH OF EVENT...BFR GOING TO ALL -SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SECOND LOW MVG NE ALONG FRONT FROM SE PART
OF COUNTRY WILL ADVANCE ON THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN REGION WILL HAVE CD AIR AT THE SFC
PROMPTING A POTENTIAL MIX OF SW/IP/RA/FZRA BFR GOING TO ALL -SW ON
MONDAY. THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF SFC LOW...WHICH HAS
SHIFTED A BIT EAST SINCE 00Z/06Z RUNS

ski_resort_observer
01-09-2007, 11:38 PM
Here is the NWS point forecast at about 3000' somewhere on the Bush. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95
-3F for Wednesday night, hope everyone is ready for that... :lol:

Tin Woodsman
01-10-2007, 07:01 AM
The trend continues to be our friend in the overnight model runs.

BTV had been forecasting a high temp of 39 on Friday for several days. That was reduced to 36 last nigth and then down to 33 this morning. I'm feeling increasingly happy in the pants.

And a 7" total snowfall in the last 24 hours doesn't hurt either, considering the expectation was for 1-3". More to come starting in an hour or so. I wouldn't be surprised by another fluffy 3-4".

freeheel_skier
01-10-2007, 07:30 AM
I'm feeling increasingly happy in the pants.

I wouldn't be surprised by another fluffy 3-4".

:lol: :lol: :lol: LMAO

TW just wanted to let you know I just spit my coffee all over my notebook :oops: reading that one. Very funny!

ski_resort_observer
01-10-2007, 07:35 AM
Yea, being a family site I decided to let that one go.... :lol:

BushMogulMaster
01-10-2007, 08:04 AM
Snowing again at Mt. Ellen as of 7:45! :D

Tin Woodsman
01-10-2007, 09:02 AM
Snowing again at Mt. Ellen as of 7:45! :D

We need that heavy band of snow to sag a little further southb. Radar indicating that Smuggs to Camels Hump is getting crushed with 1"/hr snowfall for the last hour or so. MRG might even be getting in on the action a little bit. LP possibly getting skunked if the radar picture is accurate:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CXX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

random_ski_guy
01-10-2007, 10:01 AM
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST ATTM. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL SOLNS STILL ONBOARD ADVERTISING COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST BY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER 48. TRANSITIONAL PERIOD TO THIS REGIME WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING MUCH OF THE DAY 4-6 TIME
FRAME...WITH A VARIETY OF WX CONDS EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR SLOWLY
BLEEDS INTO REGION. ENSEMBLE MEAN 0C 850 HPA LINE WAFFLES ACROSS
THE FA DURING THESE PERIODS...AND WITH SEVERAL SFC FEATURES RIDING
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PCPN AND A
POSSIBLE DECENT SNOW EVENT DURING MONDAY. BY TUESDAY ONWARD...
TRENDS STILL SUGGEST MUCH COLDER AND MAINLY DRY CONDS TO AFFECT
REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY...YES THE DISCRETE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.

Tin Woodsman
01-10-2007, 10:13 AM
MRG cam indicates they are getting crushed like a little bug by the current squall line. Can't even see the cliffs on the Single lift line.

atkinson
01-10-2007, 10:28 AM
Ummm, not so bad at Lincoln Peak.

http://forums.alpinezone.com/gallery/data/515/Sugarbushdumping011007.jpg
10:25am, January 10, 2007.

BTW, Bravo just opened.

John

sugarboarder
01-10-2007, 01:32 PM
TW just wanted to let you know I just spit my coffee all over my notebook :oops: reading that one. Very funny!

Hey, you spit your coffee all over your monitor when I posted something funny in another tread...maybe time to put the coffee down when on MRV forums? :P :P :P

walks
01-10-2007, 01:46 PM
Dumping at Jay right now.

freeheel_skier
01-10-2007, 02:01 PM
TW just wanted to let you know I just spit my coffee all over my notebook :oops: reading that one. Very funny!

Hey, you spit your coffee all over your monitor when I posted something funny in another tread...maybe time to put the coffee down when on MRV forums? :P :P :P

I got the dell super duper double top secret warranty....I hope I am covered! :lol:

Tin Woodsman
01-10-2007, 02:42 PM
Dumping at Jay right now.

That's strange - it's not showing up on composite radar out of BTV. Then again, neither are the persistent snow showers I see on the MRG web cam.

random_ski_guy
01-10-2007, 02:49 PM
in lieu of an SB webcam, maybe SB could add a link to the MRG webcam from their website. it might save a lot of people a few clicks because thats what we all doing anyways. visit SB, then visit MRG, then visit the NWS for weather, then to skimrv.com and then back to SB again; my internet ski cycle.

....sorry Win, just couldn't help myself. whether you like it or not, MRG is giving the valley the live webcam we want.

Tin Woodsman
01-10-2007, 04:45 PM
This is good:

INCREASED MSTR AND CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN FRI/FRI NIGHT
AS SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS AREA. LLVL TEMPS MODERATE
SUFFICIENTLY ON FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW SHWRS TO CHANGE TO RAIN
SHWRS IN MOST AREAS. A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHWRS EXPECTED FRI
NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET/FZRA IN THE TRANSITION.
AS THE FRONT DEPRESSES FURTHER SOUTH OF FA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING
SNOW SHWRS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN MAINLY DRY IN THE PM. QPF
FOR THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT ALL
POPS IN CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

This is better:

MDLS DIFF FROM EARLIER RUNS FOR NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH AT
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE WILL SLOW
NORTHWARD APPROACH OF SYSTEM COMING FROM THE SE PORTION OF THE US.
CURRENT RUNS ~12 HRS SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS SO WILL SHIFT ONSET OF
PRECIP TO MORE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...MVG FROM S TO N. CD AIR
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL SEE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP. WARM AIR
DOES NOT PUSH TOO FAR NORTH INTO CWA...SO MUCH OF AREA MAY STAY
SN/IP FOR MUCH OF EVENT. MDLS STILL UNSURE OF EXACT TRACK WHICH WILL
PLAY A MAJOR ROLE FOR DETERMINATION OF MAJOR PRECIP TYPE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA. BUT WILL KEEP MIX FOR NOW SINCE EVENT IN DAY5-6. QPF FAIRLY
HIGH...SO POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUM IF TRACK MORE SOUTH OF CWA
VERSUS A WEST TRACK. TAIL-END OF EXTENDED WILL HAVE REGION SEEING
FIRST CD SHOT OF WINTER SEASON. STRONG RIDGE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS/ROCKIES WILL MV SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. AHEAD OF IT
CD CANADIAN AIR ON N/NW FLOW WILL WORK SOUTH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. MDL 850 TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ATTM A BIT
WARMER BUT CLOSE TO -20C AT TIMES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND DECR CLD COVER...WILL A DEGREE/TWO UNDER
HPC GUIDANCE. REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU EASTERN CANADA
MAY PROVIDE SOME CLD COVER...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VT...BUT WITH
CD AIR IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY KEEP IN SL
CHANCE FOR --SW.

castlerock
01-10-2007, 04:59 PM
Dumping at Jay right now.
You can't go to Jay! You have to take your kids to Blazers!

freeheel_skier
01-10-2007, 09:44 PM
Dumping at Jay right now.
You can't go to Jay! You have to take your kids to Blazers!

One can dream....besides ever hear of "dump" envy? :shock: :lol:

noski
01-11-2007, 07:52 AM
This weekend is a 3 day w/e for some of you. I am thinking that you need to schedule an "outside appointment" for Tuesday. I think - I think- you will have something awesome to do that day.... and if you still have legs enough to push the gas pedal, you can go home Tuesday night and back to work Weds......

sugarboarder
01-11-2007, 11:07 AM
Oh sure, this figures...races all three days this weekend in more GD rain/sleet/slush, THEN the snow comes...but I'll take it. at least we should be racing this weekend!