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random_ski_guy
10-27-2006, 08:49 AM
new forecast out this morning doesn't bode well for early skiing. looks like an H2O deluge is on the way for saturday & saturday night.

:(

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=btv&CiTemplate=1&FcstType=text&MapType=0&MapType=3&site=btv&CiTemplate=1&map.x=240&map.y=135

Tin Woodsman
10-27-2006, 09:42 AM
Au contraire, mon freire. With the NWS website, you now have the ability to do a point forecast anywhere you click on the map on the lower right side of that page. Now it has its limitations in terms of just how pinpoint you can be, but I was able to find a spot at an elevation of 2,932' (vs. your 899' elevation) to give me the forecast at mid-mountain (couldn't find a spot any higher). That presents an entirely different picture:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95

I would highly recommend to all who read this that you bookmark this page. It is essentially telling you what the models believe will be happening at Allyn's Lodge and/or the Glen House.

10-27-2006, 10:41 AM
Au contraire, mon freire. With the NWS website, you now have the ability to do a point forecast anywhere you click on the map on the lower right side of that page. Now it has its limitations in terms of just how pinpoint you can be, but I was able to find a spot at an elevation of 2,932' (vs. your 899' elevation) to give me the forecast at mid-mountain (couldn't find a spot any higher). That presents an entirely different picture:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95

I would highly recommend to all who read this that you bookmark this page. It is essentially telling you what the models believe will be happening at Allyn's Lodge and/or the Glen House.
That is cool!

random_ski_guy
10-27-2006, 11:32 AM
Excellent catch Tinny on the NWS forecast.

So, general question to the long time Sugarbush skier/boarder who have witness many seasons. It seems like over the past year there has been a higher frequency of elevation related storms. Particularly the kind that leave rain at the base, but copious snow above 2500 feet.

Is this the normal or a bit unusual? I know that a typical storm and those post storm snow showers (aka the wrap around snow showers) always leave more at the top, but it seems like we have a number of storms over the past year that have left the base with absolutely nothing.

Thoughts?

Tin Woodsman
10-27-2006, 12:05 PM
Excellent catch Tinny on the NWS forecast.

So, general question to the long time Sugarbush skier/boarder who have witness many seasons. It seems like over the past year there has been a higher frequency of elevation related storms. Particularly the kind that leave rain at the base, but copious snow above 2500 feet.

Is this the normal or a bit unusual? I know that a typical storm and those post storm snow showers (aka the wrap around snow showers) always leave more at the top, but it seems like we have a number of storms over the past year that have left the base with absolutely nothing.

Thoughts?

I don't have nearly as much historical perspective as many of the peeps here, but I'll chime in with my $0.02. In general, as you know, there is a large disparity in snowfall at the base vs. the summits in any mtn range. The Greens are no different. Due to colder temps the higher you go, along with significant orographic uplift when storms/moisture hit the Green Mtn spine, the difference is quite evident in Northern VT. My anecdotal observations indicate the the most noticeable break point is indeed around the 2500' mark - roughly the HG Traverse/top of GH lift at LP and the upper half of The Cliffs/top of Inverness on ME.

In the avg season, this phenomenon doesn't make too much if a difference on-piste, though it can certainly impact off-piste somewhat. The lower elevation tree shots definitely take longer to fill in. Last year was decidedly below avg with little established cold air. Snowfall was night only lower than usual, but more elevation dependant than normal b/c of the warm air. Whereas you would normally get say 4" at the base vs. 10" on top in a typical storm, last year you had rain at the base and 5" on top. This was evidenced by the inability to open the SBX b/c the cat roads into the basin weren't covered. I don't think I've seen that midwinter ever, but I haven't been a devotee long enough to know whether that's exceptional.

As for this year, you have to remember that it is October 27. Climatologically, it is still extremely early for this kind of snowfall and weather pattern. The fact that we are seeing in October the type of weather we saw in January last year is a very good thing - it would be next to impossible to get sustained snow depths to the base at this time of year. All the indicators I've seen point to an above avg. winter, so as the atmosphere cools down in NOV and DEC, the snows will come and all will be good.

castlerock
10-27-2006, 02:09 PM
The orographic snows we get are not just altitude related, you will also see a proximity factor to the spine of the ridge. That is why the lower pockets off Heaven's Gate, and Castlerock will fill load up with snow, when equivalent elevations off North Lynx, and the eastern reaches of Slidebrook will get much less (add to that the sun exposure and one sees why North Lynx gets and holds less snow).

One more link. The BTV office of the NWS gives us at least a little inkling as to the altitude temps in their recreational forecast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/RECBTV

Tin Woodsman
10-27-2006, 03:03 PM
The orographic snows we get are not just altitude related, you will also see a proximity factor to the spine of the ridge. That is why the lower pockets off Heaven's Gate, and Castlerock will fill load up with snow, when equivalent elevations off North Lynx, and the eastern reaches of Slidebrook will get much less (add to that the sun exposure and one sees why North Lynx gets and holds less snow).


That's a great point.

Bubba
10-27-2006, 03:29 PM
Yah, we get niffty little dumps like that fairly often. Generally mid week. But March 4th was a week end when we marched 30 Blazer kids down the LT from Castle Rock to Paradise(HG was on wind hold) to find waist deep powder. Maybe you remember John Atkinsons article in the "Reporter". Below HG was all wind blown ice.
As for the snow we have now...
Last year about this time we had 18" of heavy wet snow over night at my house(same elev. as Claybrook)and then... :(
So, as exciting as it is to see white on the hill, let's not count our chickens.
Don't mean to be a stick in the mud, just a realist. It's still VERY early.
As I've said in the past, with the 7 year cycle this season is bound to be very good. Next year is the year you will want to quit your real job. :D

Tin Woodsman
10-27-2006, 03:39 PM
As for the snow we have now...
Last year about this time we had 18" of heavy wet snow over night at my house(same elev. as Claybrook)and then... :(
So, as exciting as it is to see white on the hill, let's not count our chickens.
Don't mean to be a stick in the mud, just a realist. It's still VERY early.
As I've said in the past, with the 7 year cycle this season is bound to be very good. Next year is the year you will want to quit your real job. :D

Dear Stick in the mud -

Last year's storm was a complete freak occurence with Hurricane Wilma getting caught up in just about the only cold weather trough VT experienced in the fall. This year is already looking a lot different, and alot more promising, from a big picture perspective. Lots of cold air around these parts for this time of year and lots of snowcover building in Canada, which portends cooler things to come as well.

Lostone
10-27-2006, 09:43 PM
but it seems like we have a number of storms over the past year that have left the base with absolutely nothing.

Thoughts?

"There's always more on the mountain!" 8)


Tin... Great catch on the NOAA thing! :wink: I've been using that site for checking weather for years, but never went to play with that map, for an elevation thing.

Still, I'm hearing 60 mile winds for tomorrow, and lots of rain. Possible snow on the backside (That can be cold! :shock: ) but we'll know about that on Monday.

Remember in August? When it was hot and a million years to skiing? :(

No matter what... It is getting closer! :D

And SRO... Great shots, as always. Was planning on heading over there, when I was out, but Vera didn't take the turn. :roll:

Bubba
10-28-2006, 09:31 AM
As for the snow we have now...
Last year about this time we had 18" of heavy wet snow over night at my house(same elev. as Claybrook)and then... :(
So, as exciting as it is to see white on the hill, let's not count our chickens.
Don't mean to be a stick in the mud, just a realist. It's still VERY early.
As I've said in the past, with the 7 year cycle this season is bound to be very good. Next year is the year you will want to quit your real job. :D

Dear Stick in the mud -

Last year's storm was a complete freak occurence with Hurricane Wilma getting caught up in just about the only cold weather trough VT experienced in the fall. This year is already looking a lot different, and alot more promising, from a big picture perspective. Lots of cold air around these parts for this time of year and lots of snowcover building in Canada, which portends cooler things to come as well.


Seems to me we have some sort of "freak occurence" pretty much every year around this time. And you know what? There will be more! Weather in the valley can be a "freak occurence" every day.

-Stick-in-the-mud.

Lostone
10-28-2006, 10:02 AM
Well, if you're going to be a Stick-in-the-mud today, it should be pretty easy to get in as the ground should be wet enough to make copious amounts of mud.

But you'd better go deep, to keep sticking. Wind is blowing everything in the world over. :roll:

Does this count as a "freak occurence", or is this just New England? :wink:

Tin Woodsman
10-28-2006, 10:31 AM
Seems to me we have some sort of "freak occurence" pretty much every year around this time. And you know what? There will be more! Weather in the valley can be a "freak occurence" every day.

-Stick-in-the-mud.
That may be the case, but geting 2 feet plus out of as single October storm powered by the remnants of a huricane doesn't happen every year. With the warm weather all of last fall, both before and after that storm, that hurricane would have normally been thrown far out to sea and nowhere near VT. There was a 4-5 day break in that season long pattern that happened to coincide with the hurricane's arrival on the east coast. Even for the MRV and even for October, that was a really rare event - a complete anomoly in a sea of warm weather all fall and winter. Won't be the case this year.

Mike_451
10-29-2006, 01:14 AM
Elevation is a massive factor, Our house is at about 1500' and the storm around march 20 that dumped at least a 12-14" on the sumits, didn't even leave a dusting in our yard. Infact that morning I had no Idea it had snowed, and when I was riding up HG that day looking in the woods to the left of Ripcord wondering where the heck all that chest deep pow in the trees that wasn't there yesterday came from. That storm managed to leave a bit of snow over on Nort Lynx, enough that the opened the bottom half of Morningstar.

I am not sure at sugarbush how much snow ends up blowing up over ridge-lines and piling up on the other side, like it does out west, I think it has got to have some effect at SB.

I have skied days where it is raning at the base, sleet at the bottom of HG, wet snow at the top of SB, and Pow at the summit. Kind of odd sking just about every immaginible condition from boiler plate, pow, mashed potatos, and epic corn down deathspout.

From the one or two degree change in temps there can be such a noticible difference, especialy in the spring where often things are still pretty dry for the top 100' of vertical, and then instantly as you cross the - 101' foot mark you are water skiing, or wakeboarding (or bare-footing if you are a freeheeler?)

random_ski_guy
10-29-2006, 12:51 PM
thanks to all for your thoughts thus far. i'm familiar with the weather phenomena cited; shoulder seasons, orographic and elevation related causes. i'm just surprised how much both have influenced snowfall over the past year.

i remember the snows that fell at the end of presidents week last feb benefited the +3000ft level, but nearly absent at the lower elevations. toss in last fall's storm, the spring storm Mike spoke of, last weeks snows and todays snows and its surprising to see how much the elevation and oragraphic effect influences the results (and pumps the seasonal total up). i realize that, outside of the feb storm, all other snow events mentioned fell in shoulder seasons which are ultra sensitive to temps and elevation.

so i gather, that most feel these disparities are more typical than atypical.

how about in the heart of winter, do the disparities narrow or remain? thoughts?

i have only been paying attention to sugarbush for about a year now, so i don't have a sense of its historical snowfall patterns. i also don't get up to the mtn very often.

-random

Lostone
10-29-2006, 01:46 PM
i also don't get up to the mtn very often.

Well, I think you should make a point of coming up more often... not for any of that horrible skiing stuff... but for scientific study of mountain meteorology. :wink:

random_ski_guy
10-29-2006, 01:59 PM
i also don't get up to the mtn very often.

Well, I think you should make a point of coming up more often... not for any of that horrible skiing stuff... but for scientific study of mountain meteorology. :wink:

I would love to, but it won't be this year. Hopefully at some point life will change and allow me to be there with some regularity. I've pretty much decided that Sugarbush is where I'm going to set up shop when the time comes. :)

Tin Woodsman
10-29-2006, 07:13 PM
thanks to all for your thoughts thus far. i'm familiar with the weather phenomena cited; shoulder seasons, orographic and elevation related causes. i'm just surprised how much both have influenced snowfall over the past year.

i remember the snows that fell at the end of presidents week last feb benefited the +3000ft level, but nearly absent at the lower elevations. toss in last fall's storm, the spring storm Mike spoke of, last weeks snows and todays snows and its surprising to see how much the elevation and oragraphic effect influences the results (and pumps the seasonal total up). i realize that, outside of the feb storm, all other snow events mentioned fell in shoulder seasons which are ultra sensitive to temps and elevation.

so i gather, that most feel these disparities are more typical than atypical.

how about in the heart of winter, do the disparities narrow or remain? thoughts?

i have only been paying attention to sugarbush for about a year now, so i don't have a sense of its historical snowfall patterns. i also don't get up to the mtn very often.

-random

I think the point of my type-written diarhea was that while there is always variation in snowfall at the top vs. the bottom of the hill, last year was unique in that even during mid-season, the bottom would get rain with the top getting snow. Normally in mid-winter you get lots of snow at the top, and not quite as much at the bottom. The warmer temps simply made the differential much more stark than it normally would be. In short, assuming roughly normal temps, you won't see as big a differnece in conditions and snowdepths this year.

Mike_451
10-30-2006, 12:38 PM
Looking at the current forcast, with plenty of temps in the 20's in the second half of the week, if they have the resources, and manpower ready that, seems like a good snowmaking window.

Bubba
10-30-2006, 04:32 PM
Looking at the current forcast, with plenty of temps in the 20's in the second half of the week, if they have the resources, and manpower ready that, seems like a good snowmaking window.



Guns should start blowing 11/1 at North.

Tin Woodsman
10-30-2006, 04:41 PM
Looking at the current forcast, with plenty of temps in the 20's in the second half of the week, if they have the resources, and manpower ready that, seems like a good snowmaking window.



Guns should start blowing 11/1 at North.

Rumor, innuendo, speculation, or hard fact?

Lostone
10-30-2006, 05:40 PM
Rumor, innuendo, speculation, or hard fact?

The plan! :wink:

That is what Win said on Community day. We'll know in a couple days. 8)

ski_resort_observer
10-31-2006, 09:20 AM
Yup, it's pretty much well known around the valley that the Bush hopes to start blowing around Nov 1st. All depends on mother nature.

win
10-31-2006, 09:33 PM
Sorry guys, I misled you. We may miss by a few hours. Our forecast indicates that the temperatures up top could be right early Thursday morning, the 2nd. But it still may be the 1st somewhere this side of the Date Line in the Pacific. Our weather consultant says that we may have good temps up top for a few days. While it is warm today and tonight and into tomorrow, the cloud cover was a good thing, so we probably kept a good deal of what fell up top! Still shooting for opening day on Saturday the 18th at ME. Our two new groomer arriived yesterday and we have some pics on the web of them. Claybrook and Gatehouse are cranking. I took some people on a tour today and had trouble getting around all the workers!

Lostone
10-31-2006, 09:56 PM
I just was saying, in an email to someone that it was 55° out now, and we haven't had 55° in the last two weeks! :roll:

On the good side, they are saying cold, and the gift from last week can help a lot, if we can just keep it. :D

random_ski_guy
11-01-2006, 11:39 AM
what's the typical snowmaking plan, start with upper ridge run and elbow to get the summit quad going. then expand to FIS, lower ridge run and looking good to round out the summit. then to cruiser and beyond?

Tin Woodsman
11-01-2006, 11:43 AM
what's the typical snowmaking plan, start with upper ridge run and elbow to get the summit quad going. then expand to FIS, lower ridge run and looking good to round out the summit. then to cruiser and beyond?

Last year they went upper Rim Rum> Elbow to start, then added lower Rim Run soon thereafter. Then FIS and then maybe Lookin Good. Previous years I thought I recalled a somewhat simultaneous opening of all Rim Run and Elbow before moving onto FIS. I suppose much depends on the weather - shocker.

ski_resort_observer
11-01-2006, 11:58 AM
Temps for the near future look great fro snowmaking. Using the point tool from the NWS that Tin turned us on to check out the temps at the 2932ft level.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.047083&rlon=-72.119583&tlat=44.717917&blat=43.792917&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=36&map.y=164

Here is the forcast for the base
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.047083&rlon=-72.119583&tlat=44.717917&blat=43.792917&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=45&map.y=151

Mike_451
11-02-2006, 01:04 AM
14 degrees, saturday night. Heh, at the 4000 foot mark its got to be arround 10, and with the winds common to the top of MT Ellen, I don't even want to think about the windchill.

The temps up top sound great, and they are ok at the base. Although I don't imagine that they would be taking the snowmaking top to bottom untill they have enough at the top to get them into december.

I don't even wan't to think about the temps staying cold, I really don't want to jinx things. The only times I belive in superstition is for Ski conditions, and Football.


As far as snowmaking last season, it was Rim Run and Elbow, and I don't know if they blew any of lower rim run before opening in any early windows, buit I remember hearing that they planned to but the temps didn't allow, and had to do Elbow instead.

They aslo apperently blew Cruiser before opening, I remmeber some staff member saying that they had let them up to ski before they opened to the public and that they had blown crusier, but the water bars were not filled in and it wasn't in shape to open to the public, and that they had skied it.

This person knows the mountain, and I know she wasn't mistaking another trail.

Last season it seems to have been, Upper Rim Run, to Elbow, then down what was spread eagle, and to the very botom of rim run to the glen house.

Then they moved onto lower RimRun, Lower Elbow, and the Traverse from the glen house over to cruiser etc...

Arround that time they were draging out the hoses and setting up the guns on strait shot, and after they got lower rim run in ship shape, they moved onto FIS, I guess finsished cruiser, and then I think shut off the guns on FIS, and took it to the bottom.


They continued to blast Cruiser, and strait shot, and 2 guns at the summite untill the warm weather that closed the resort for a few days.

Word was the mountain was in miserable shape, but I remember feeling really relived the night before they resumed snowmaking when I stoped by about 9:00 and walked over to the lift ramp for the GMX and felt icy snow crunching under my boots.

After that, they blew elbow and lower rim run some, but they were in decent enough shape that I recall it was prety much FIS, Cruiser, and Strait Shot, to get it top to botom agian.


These are just the daytime ops that I recall, I have no Idea what they did at nightime.

random_ski_guy
11-02-2006, 09:57 AM
thanks for all the details Mike, thats about how it remember last Nov working out too.

so, the big question, as anyone seen the guns-a-blazing or heard the jets-a-roaring at mt ellen this morning? are we underway?

win
11-02-2006, 03:19 PM
The plan is to make sure that we have Rim Run and Elbow is good shape first wo we can ski and ride the Summit. We had FIS open on the first day would want to try that as well. Also if possible top to bottom is great, so if we have the temps we would start working down Cruiser and Straight Shot. The next few days looks really good for snowmaking up top and then next week it is supposed to warm up a bit, so we will crank as long as we can.

random_ski_guy
11-10-2006, 08:49 AM
the current short term and long term forecast has taken an anti-skiing turn. a Nov 18th opening appears to be in doubt for the moment. :evil:

forecast:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95

forecast discussion: new models predict an all rain event this weekend. hopefully they are wrong and enough cold air is pulled in to support snow at the upper els.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=BTVAFDBTV&version=0

the medium range model is all zonal, maybe that storm moving in on the west coast monday Nov 20th will work its way across the US and finally usher in some cold temps. thats a long time to wait.
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html