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View Full Version : Shiver in My Bones Just Thinking....About the Weather....



Tin Woodsman
12-02-2005, 02:05 PM
No, this is not an homage to 10,000 Maniacs, this is about tracking and discussing the weather which may impact the mountain. If you hadn't noticed, the weather page on the SB website was updated in the last few hours, with Roger Hill weighing in thusly:


12/02/05 - Mid Morning Report
Roger Hill for Dr Ski Weather Jim Roemer

What a difference a day makes! A “snowscape” is in the process of returning, and the winter wonderland will soon enough have you getting those skis & snowboards ready to go.

Lincoln Peak and Mt Ellen could very easily end up with half a foot to perhaps 10-12" across its upper 1/3rd before Saturday morning.

A coastal storm system, what I would call a “Wannabe Nor’easter”, tried to get together, but too little too late means we missed what could have been some solid base material. Still, better than half a foot is possible with at least a little more snow to potentially fall Saturday afternoon.

As the storm pulls and lifts northward toward the Canadian Maritimes, the northwesterly winds will eventually quiet down for the weekend.

As time goes on, the snow will become fluffy as temperature profiles support colder air aloft and some Lake effect action, primarily from Lake Ontario, will get involved.

There could be a lot of powder drifting with this newly fallen snow as it will be fluffy.

The lower portions of the Mad River Valley will not see nearly the amounts at the top, so driving, though slippery at times, should not deter.

As our current storm develops into what could be a rather intense cyclone while curling northwestward through eastern Maine, temperatures will become colder aloft today while winds are expected to pick up from the west.

Lake effect plumes may continue Friday night downwind from Lake Ontario, adding a few more inches across upper portions of the mountain by Sunday.

This storm is a harbinger of much colder weather to settle in at least into the second week of December, a welcome change to the roller coaster ride in temperatures.

We may start to see an active weather pattern featuring more snow next week with perhaps as many as three more storms in the pipe.

Welcome to December!

Sounds pretty good to me, though I know it won't really impact the amount of skiable terrain this weekend. Also, the website is reporting that Mt. Ellen will definitely be reopening Saturday, though I doubt that was really ever in question.

12-02-2005, 02:20 PM
Looks to be the start of an epic early season throughout the NE!

WWF-VT
12-02-2005, 02:42 PM
Looks like a good rebound to the meltdown earlier this week. Anyone care to comment on driving conditions on the Warren / Roxbury Mountain Road ?

smootharc
12-02-2005, 03:05 PM
I'll take whatever they serve up....I've been building my appetite since last turns last May.

Tin Woodsman
12-02-2005, 03:11 PM
Radar out of BTV is looking tasty. Indicating 1"/hour snowfall rates along the spine of the Greens from about Midd Snow Bowl northward right now.

12-02-2005, 03:45 PM
Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now... :lol:

noski
12-02-2005, 04:38 PM
Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now... :lol: It is snowing hard and has been for a couple hours. Rt 100 is covered, cars going slow.... Actually, Roger Hill is doing Sugarbush weather now, via Roemer. Did you know that Trailboss?

Tin Woodsman
12-02-2005, 04:46 PM
Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now... :lol:

The guy is something of a hack, IMHO. Always pimping the biggest totals that rarely verify. For instance, he is "dumfounded" that the NWS is predicting anything less than 20" for Jay Peak by Sunday. If it happens - fantastic. But my guess is that it's not bloody likely.

noski
12-02-2005, 04:57 PM
Roemer must be bouncing off the walls right now... :lol:

The guy is something of a hack, IMHO. Always pimping the biggest totals that rarely verify. For instance, he is "dumfounded" that the NWS is predicting anything less than 20" for Jay Peak by Sunday. If it happens - fantastic. But my guess is that it's not bloody likely.
I agree. That is why some of us kind of like Roger Hill. He is honest and if anything, a bit conservative. He is the first to admit he made an error and explains what happened in the weather pattern to cause the sudden change. I learn alot about meteorology in general just listening to him.

KingM
12-02-2005, 08:27 PM
On the other hand, it's fun to read Roemer's optimistic reports in the same way that it's fun to hear someone hyping your football team just before a big game. Sure, it's hype, but it could happen. :)

Tin Woodsman
12-16-2005, 01:18 PM
So, um, any first hand reports on snow depths on the mtn? The website is truly awful, with no update since this morning on snow totals. They have updated the trail count to 59 open right now, so I guess one can imply that they've received more than 5", but WTF? Get on the ball SB!!

kcyanks1
12-16-2005, 02:10 PM
No, this is not an homage to 10,000 Maniacs, this is about tracking and discussing the weather which may impact the mountain. If you hadn't noticed, the weather page on the SB website was updated in the last few hours, with Roger Hill weighing in thusly:

Sounds pretty good to me, though I know it won't really impact the amount of skiable terrain this weekend. Also, the website is reporting that Mt. Ellen will definitely be reopening Saturday, though I doubt that was really ever in question.

I just checked their trail report and it seems that a lot has opened due to the snow - Steins, Mall, and Twist at South, and Encore, Hammerhead, and Cliffs at North, to name some.

Tin Woodsman
12-16-2005, 02:17 PM
I just checked their trail report and it seems that a lot has opened due to the snow - Steins, Mall, and Twist at South, and Encore, Hammerhead, and Cliffs at North, to name some.

I noticed that too. I guess we can divine that they've received more than the 5" the website claims from some undetermined time this morning (they never include a time stamp on their reports!), but should we have to go through these gymnastics to figure it out?

How about a mid-day update that reads like this:

It's dumping up here at the Bush with an additional 4" on top of the 5" we reported this morning, for a total of 9" as of 1PM!! Patrol is dropping ropes all around the mountain right now with such favorites as Stein's Run, Twist, and Cliffs open for business! Depending on additional snowfall tonight and tomorrow, we are planning to go big for the weekend with XX lifts and up to XX trails open. The next report is scheduled for 7AM tomorrow, though we'll update you with any new information from Mountain Ops as soon as we get it.

Wow that took all of two minutes to pull together. Is it really so tough, especially considering that it's a FRIDAY and the flatlanders need to know what's going on?? Should I have to resort to calling my ski shop contacts on the hill to get the straight dope? I don't think so.

kcyanks1
12-16-2005, 02:25 PM
I just checked their trail report and it seems that a lot has opened due to the snow - Steins, Mall, and Twist at South, and Encore, Hammerhead, and Cliffs at North, to name some.

I noticed that too. I guess we can divine that they've received more than the 5" the website claims from some undetermined time this morning (they never include a time stamp on their reports!), but should we have to go through these gymnastics to figure it out?

Agreed, that would be useful.



How about a mid-day update that reads like this:

It's dumping up here at the Bush with an additional 4" on top of the 5" we reported this morning, for a total of 9" as of 1PM!! Patrol is dropping ropes all around the mountain right now with such favorites as Stein's Run, Twist, and Cliffs open for business! Depending on additional snowfall tonight and tomorrow, we are planning to go big for the weekend with XX lifts and up to XX trails open. The next report is scheduled for 7AM tomorrow, though we'll update you with any new information from Mountain Ops as soon as we get it.


Doesn't Jay Peak have a patent on that type of snow-reporting? :-) j/k. I'm not implying they lie, just that they always say "we got XX on top of XX on top of XX" etc.

Tin Woodsman
12-16-2005, 02:42 PM
I'd rather get Jay's exaggerated information than no information at all.

Lostone
12-16-2005, 03:28 PM
How about a report that says... "Thar's snow in them there hills!" :shock: :D

I can't tell you what the totals are, but there was a lot of snow. Much of it was heavy, but there were a lot of people that got eaten by the lunchtime monster today, and most of them were quite happy with the fact. :lol:

There is a lot that opened and there were a lot of skiers scrambling for early turns. Trail clutter was everywhere.

Great day.

Will probably get a report up later, but for now I'm much too sore to sit at mr computer. :wink:

KingM
12-16-2005, 03:33 PM
My very unscientific guess from the Valley floor is 4-5 by 7:00 this morning and another 5-8 throughout the day. There was enough that I'm sore from shoveling my decks and not, alas, from skiing. :roll:

No more skiing until I hit Bolton's $4 pass on Tuesday.

Tin Woodsman
12-21-2005, 07:24 AM
Is it just me, or has SB been particularly conservative with respect to snowfall totals this year? In the Friday storm, everyone I know in the valley was reporting a solid 10-12" or more on the valley floor. The mountain reported 8", even with the snow showers all day Saturday.

For yesterday's event, MRG reported 6" while SB is reporting 3". While I understand that these mesoscale events can produce widely varying snow totals from one area to the next, that is a pretty dramatic difference. I applaud the mtn for not taking the Jay Peak route and hyping everuy flake that falls though.

smootharc
12-21-2005, 10:00 AM
Is it just me, or has SB been particularly conservative with respect to snowfall totals this year? In the Friday storm, everyone I know in the valley was reporting a solid 10-12" or more on the valley floor. The mountain reported 8", even with the snow showers all day Saturday.

For yesterday's event, MRG reported 6" while SB is reporting 3". While I understand that these mesoscale events can produce widely varying snow totals from one area to the next, that is a pretty dramatic difference. I applaud the mtn for not taking the Jay Peak route and hyping everuy flake that falls though.

. ...Stowe's "annual average" of 333" claimed on their website, while SB clocks in at claimed 270". I thought SB sort of hung tight with Stowe on averages, and even had a bit more "frosting" on numerous of the recent years. Guess those numbers can be massaged daily, monthly, and annually any way you want. Taking a cue from the Fed gov......

Tin Woodsman
12-21-2005, 10:08 AM
Actually, I don't doubt the disparity between the annual snowfall at SB/MRG and the Mansfield ski areas. The fact of the matter is that many of these upslope, wraparound and clipper events tend to focus their greatest snowfalls north of I-89. Anecdotal observations also suggest that the snow tends to be a fair bit deeper at comparable elevations at Stowe vs. SB/MRG.

Tin Woodsman
01-05-2006, 12:13 PM
Can anyone provide an update on accumulations and weather up at the mountain? The 1" reported at an as-yet-undetermined time this morning on the SB snow report isn't helpful or encouraging. (grumble grumble)

ski_resort_observer
01-05-2006, 12:36 PM
Can anyone provide an update on accumulations and weather up at the mountain? The 1" reported at an as-yet-undetermined time this morning on the SB snow report isn't helpful or encouraging. (grumble grumble)

The snow report is usually done at around 6AM. Based on what I see at the MRG webcam I am guessing 2/3" at the base and 3/5" on the mountain. I find that very encouraging. I guess we will have to wait for a first person report so relax and enjoy the snow.

TwinTipTele
01-05-2006, 05:37 PM
The snow was good during lunch today... typical EC "wet powder" at the bottom, nice fluffier stuff at the top. Total snowfall is hard to say, but 6" at the top is conservative; a solid 3-4 at the base (and still snowing outside the window over my desk at 5:30pm). IMO, we've been very conservative in our snowfall totals this season - a major deviation from certain resorts to our north.

The disparity between average season snowfall totals at SB vs. Stowe seems to be inconsistent. I remember recently reading that the difference was small (>10"), although I can't remember the site. I'll look around and see where I came up with that info... However, we all know that no matter what the snow reports say, conditions here are usually every bit as good as they are over there. It's a very Brighton/Alta kind of relationship (some years one is higher than the other) - different but equal valleys, snowfall-wise.

The weather info on our website is essentially realtime. The snow report is updated frequently throughout the day - I'll pass on the feedback about timestamps (I agree that it is difficult to decipher when these reports are posted).

-TTT

Talisman
01-05-2006, 05:46 PM
TTT, thanks for the snow report 'update'. I am planning to be up to SB for a day trip on Saturday.

Tin Woodsman
01-05-2006, 05:59 PM
TTT -

that's a great update. Thanks. I absolutely agree that SB has been quite conservative this year in terms of new snow totals, even relative to MRG. You guys measuring at the Sugarbush Inn or something? :lol: :lol:

Maybe the site you're thinking of is www.bestsnow.net? That's Tony Crocker's ski area snowfall site. From what I can tell via the literature I've read and personal observations, the Manfiedl massif does tend to get a little more snow than SB/MRG over the course of the season. It will vary at times depending on storm tracks and such, but those upslope events really tend to kick in north of I-89. Still, I'm not complaining - there's always deep snow somewhere on the ridge.

I've heard from others that the online snow report is updated throughout the day, though past pbservations being the veracity of that claim into doubt. I've seen several days this year where it was snowing for much of the day, yet the needle didn't move an inch on the website. The changes you might want there are very simple:

1) Time stamps on updates so people can know at what time the report is valid

2) A clear commitment to post at least an end of day update in addition to the early morning update ala MRG. If supplemented by a policy of adding a mid-day update when changing weather conditions warrant (be it new snow, rain, or wind), that would be fantastic.

3) The addition of 2-3 sentences at the bottom of the report giving a qualitative overview of what to expect or look in terms of snow, terrain or lifts. For example, the morning after storm rolls through, you could add:

"It's a fantastic day to be at Sugarbush today! As of 6:00 AM we've received 8-10" of light and dry, and early word from the mountain ops folks indicates that it's even deeper in spots on the upper mountain. Please be aware that wth this storm have come some strong winds out of the NW, so Heaven's Gate, Summit Quad, and Super Bravo will be on windhold until further notice. Picks of the day for you corduroy lovers include XXX and XXX while we've left Paradise and all of Castlerock untouched for those of you with a powder jones."

That took about 3 minutes to write and it included lots of vital information for tourists (where are the groomers, what lifts are open, how much new snow) and locals (where is the powder; where might the snow be wind-affected; will the snowsnakes from the other day still be lurking?) alike.

Finally, it would be great to have the web cam up and operating again. I am forced to use the one down in the valley (not indicative of what's happening on the mountain) or over at MRG.

Strat
01-05-2006, 07:31 PM
Tin - The snow report used to be like that, before the transition to the new site. It doesn't make sense to me why it isn't there any more.

Tin Woodsman
01-25-2006, 08:06 AM
OK - who defiled the weather Gods? This is seriously depressing. I wake up expecting a nice start to this storm cycle, and see 5-6" to the Norht of us, 4-5" to the South of us, and NADA right in the middle.

Seriously - WTF?!


That's not cool, Ullr. Not cool.

Plowboy
01-25-2006, 08:30 AM
WTF!!!!!!!!! is right!!

castlerock
01-27-2006, 10:14 AM
http://madriverglen.com/?Page=weatherx.php

Wow, this would be OK wouldn't it?

2planker
01-27-2006, 11:03 AM
I am hoping that the last weather update on the MRG site is accurate. I have already told my co-workers that I may be coming down with a bug that could keep me out of the office on Monday and Tuesday. I hope the forecast is more based on fact than rose colored glasses, the other weather sites are predicting rain to snow and only 5 inches.

I will start burning skis and doing the snow dance. Only 22 hours until I ski again.

Treeskier
01-27-2006, 11:43 AM
30+ been dancing for an hour now!!!!! We can only hope!

KingM
01-29-2006, 07:27 AM
30+ been dancing for an hour now!!!!! We can only hope!

Looks like an epic blown forecast at this point. :roll:

ski_resort_observer
01-29-2006, 10:33 AM
As others have mentioned Ullr must be very upset with us. What could it be? Does Ullr want world peace, a cival and respectful society, poop-free gutters in NYC, what I ask, what does Ullr want? The Bush used to have a Ullr Fest for a few years, is that it? I noticed several resorts out west have them. We need answers! The Farmers Almanac gave us hope for alot of snow....should they pay for this phopah? Should we all meet in that cute little NH town of Durham where Yankee magazine is located and show them our displeasure?

On a positive serious note I think it's possible that the mountain might mostly get snow tonight instead of the "you know what" some have predicted. :D

KingM
01-29-2006, 03:11 PM
I've been watching the weather closely for the last couple of days and the snow has been steadily downgraded until now we're looking at mostly rain.

The bigger question is, are we going to see a winter this year? It seems like they've been predicting a return of winter conditions sometime in the next 7-14 days now for about five weeks. It seems like we start to turn the corner and then conditions warm and rain falls again. This current cycle is not as bad as the brutal one we had last weekend, but we have less snow to work with.

Plowboy
01-29-2006, 04:21 PM
Sunday @ 4:20 Snowing


Near base of ME

Strat
01-29-2006, 08:17 PM
As I think I might've said above, I'm still hoping for nature to do the ol' balance thing and whallop us in march with multiple 2+ foot dumpings like March of 01... epic days.

Plowboy
01-29-2006, 08:38 PM
8:30 pm SNOWING 2"+

All snow reports are near the base of ME, unless noted otherwise.

Strat,

I was thinking more like Feb and March of 93'. "SUPERSTORM" in March was unbelievable.


Plowboy

ALLSKIING
01-29-2006, 08:50 PM
Did any rain fall before the snow?

Lostone
01-29-2006, 08:56 PM
No rain before the snow on the mountain. 8)

ski_resort_observer
01-29-2006, 09:23 PM
8:30 pm SNOWING 2"+

I was thinking more like Feb and March of 03'. "SUPERSTORM" in March was unbelievable.


Plowboy

March of 01 was pretty epic, a pic is worth a thousand wordshttp://upload2.postimage.org/82172/BonzaiatSugarbush.jpg (http://upload2.postimage.org/82172/photo_hosting.html)
http://upload2.postimage.org/82173/SugarbushStorm.jpg (http://upload2.postimage.org/82173/photo_hosting.html)

Plowboy
01-30-2006, 02:30 AM
8:30 pm SNOWING 2"+

I was thinking more like Feb and March of 03'. "SUPERSTORM" in March was unbelievable.


Plowboy

March of 01 was pretty epic, a pic is worth a thousand words

Was supposed to be 93'. No pics, but was also epic. :D

KingM
01-31-2006, 07:41 AM
I shoveled a couple of inches this morning and it looks like we might get another couple today. It's something.

freeheel_skier
01-31-2006, 08:31 AM
I shoveled a couple of inches this morning and it looks like we might get another couple today. It's something.

I am just as optimistic about Saturday's forecast! I am sick of this snow then R-ting. OR R-then snow or warm then freeze......you get the point.

Let it snow!