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ski_resort_observer
11-21-2005, 05:23 PM
The NWS just issued a Winter Storm Warning for Tuesday night with 6-10" predicted for the MRV. Looks like a repeat on Thurs. My brother-in-law told me about it for here as he is feverishly getting his plow trucks ready. check www.noaa.org

KingM
11-21-2005, 06:06 PM
That would be fantastic.

I assume even if we got the highest possible of 20" from the two storms that they would still not open Lincoln Peak until Dec. 10? More importantly, how much of Mt. Ellen would they open with that much snow? Most of it all at once, or would they stick with their plan of slow, measured increases in the number of trails?

Tin Woodsman
11-21-2005, 06:59 PM
That would be fantastic.

I assume even if we got the highest possible of 20" from the two storms that they would still not open Lincoln Peak until Dec. 10? More importantly, how much of Mt. Ellen would they open with that much snow? Most of it all at once, or would they stick with their plan of slow, measured increases in the number of trails?
Some of the locals would have a better handle on this, but a general guess is that they'd open as much as possible as quickly as possible, within the bounds of safety and mountain resources to do so. At the very least, expect FIS, Panorama, Rim Run, Upper/Lower Elbow, Lookin Good, Cruiser, Which Way, maybe Northway, and Straight Shot. Depending on how things break, you might also see one or two of Cliffs/Hammerhead, Tumbler, but I doubt it. Tumbler is usually a little exposed, so likely not. Same with Exterminator. Bravo is too rocky at the headwall. Encore too obscure. The Inverness area has a lousy sun exposure, though you never know if the snow really does pile up.

ski_resort_observer
11-21-2005, 07:22 PM
At this point in time I agree with Tin as they are currently making snow on FIS, Rim Run and Panorama. Before they even think about LP they want to be open top to bottom at ME. If they do get a bunch of snow this week then all bets are off and it will be interesting if they maybe will start making snow at LP earlier than planned.

A sure sign that they are preparing to open LP is to see snowmaking on Jester, Organgrinder and Deathspout. It wasn't too many years ago when the Bush got a huge storm 2 weeks before Thanksgiving, opened up 67 trails, then closed on Thanksgiving due to rain and warm temps following the storm. Course that was the previous owners who always opened the season with Jester, Organgrinder and Downspout on LP.

Anyway, whatever scenerio works out it's great to see winter finally arrive in the valley assuming the weather forcasters are correct. We all know they are never wrong. :roll:

Strat
11-21-2005, 08:45 PM
That would be fantastic.

I assume even if we got the highest possible of 20" from the two storms that they would still not open Lincoln Peak until Dec. 10? More importantly, how much of Mt. Ellen would they open with that much snow? Most of it all at once, or would they stick with their plan of slow, measured increases in the number of trails?
Some of the locals would have a better handle on this, but a general guess is that they'd open as much as possible as quickly as possible, within the bounds of safety and mountain resources to do so. At the very least, expect FIS, Panorama, Rim Run, Upper/Lower Elbow, Lookin Good, Cruiser, Which Way, maybe Northway, and Straight Shot. Depending on how things break, you might also see one or two of Cliffs/Hammerhead, Tumbler, but I doubt it. Tumbler is usually a little exposed, so likely not. Same with Exterminator. Bravo is too rocky at the headwall. Encore too obscure. The Inverness area has a lousy sun exposure, though you never know if the snow really does pile up.
You mean Northstar, not Northway... opening that would send you to Inverness... 8)

Lostone
11-21-2005, 09:52 PM
Couple points:

I've hear Winn state that even if there was a dump, South's opening date is set and will not change. Pretty sure it is a matter that the money coming in can't pay for all the people to run two mountains.

If you saw it today, you'd have to agree. It was a fantastic day, weatherwise. There was only one real trail dawn, and there were probably ten times it was a little crowded. By opening more terrain at North, there will be no additional cost, but to open South?

The other point is that last year they were very aggressive about opening terrain. If it was close, they put up a thin cover sign and dropped the rope. I think that worked quite well. There were a few complaints, but if you went past the sign, what did you expect? At the same time, lots of people skied those trails.

I'd be surprised if they didn't do that again. :wink:

Lostone
11-21-2005, 10:02 PM
And as to the thread title, weather.com's hourly says the change from mix to snow will be around 15:00.


I'll be watching from my 1600' perch and maybe making a call or two to see when it changes over. Worse comes to worse... lift opening time, Wecnesday. :D

Tin Woodsman
11-22-2005, 12:47 AM
In my experience, the best forecast you'll find for the mountains is right here:

http://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0511c&L=skivt-l&D=1&O=D&F=&S=&X=094F5B351CFD492FDB&Y=mbbernstein%40yahoo.com&P=40723

Scott Braaten from the SKIVT-L list is only a Met student at UVM, but he knows his stuff, and is getting better all the time.

andyzee
11-22-2005, 06:16 AM
In my experience, the best forecast you'll find for the mountains is right here:

http://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0511c&L=skivt-l&D=1&O=D&F=&S=&X=094F5B351CFD492FDB&Y=mbbernstein%40yahoo.com&P=40723

Scott Braaten from the SKIVT-L list is only a Met student at UVM, but he knows his stuff, and is getting better all the time.

Well hope they're right, according to this forcast we can expect up to 16" north of Killington. :lol:

Lostone
11-22-2005, 08:57 AM
It started snowing as I opened the drapes around 7:30. OK... Supposed to switch between snow and rain.

1.5 hours... still snow.

Going to eat a big breakfast. The problem today is being too anxious to get out. Better skiing will be later, today. :D


Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy!

* Goes to see what age he listed in the How Old Are You poll * :roll:

Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy !


:lol:

.

11-22-2005, 09:13 AM
It started snowing as I opened the drapes around 7:30. OK... Supposed to switch between snow and rain.

1.5 hours... still snow.

Going to eat a big breakfast. The problem today is being too anxious to get out. Better skiing will be later, today. :D


Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy!

* Goes to see what age he listed in the How Old Are You poll * :roll:

Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy !


:lol:

.
If you don't have one, we need to get you a digital camera so you can report back with pics. How close are you to the mountain, Lost?

Lostone
11-22-2005, 10:52 AM
I have 2 digital cameras, and carry one of them almost all the time... except on powder days.

Powder makes you stupid. :shock: :lol:

Chances of falling greatly increase with real powder. 8)

That said, the snow changed over to rain again. :cry: Temperature has gained 3°. :cry:

As for where I am, I'm essentially at the bottom of South. I live in Sugarbush Village. Great place to live... once they open South. :roll: :wink:


.

ski_resort_observer
11-22-2005, 11:26 AM
Roses are red
Smurfs are blue
Gonna get some snow
I know it's true
:D

andyzee
11-22-2005, 11:29 AM
I have 2 digital cameras, and carry one of them almost all the time... except on powder days.

Powder makes you stupid. :shock: :lol:

Chances of falling greatly increase with real powder. 8)

That said, the snow changed over to rain again. :cry: Temperature has gained 3°. :cry:

As for where I am, I'm essentially at the bottom of South. I live in Sugarbush Village. Great place to live... once they open South. :roll: :wink:


.

What do you think the chances of snow at higher elevations are?

Lostone
11-22-2005, 11:30 AM
Well... I haven't unpacked any of my ski stuff. :wink:

smootharc
11-22-2005, 01:11 PM
In my experience, the best forecast you'll find for the mountains is right here:

http://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0511c&L=skivt-l&D=1&O=D&F=&S=&X=094F5B351CFD492FDB&Y=mbbernstein%40yahoo.com&P=40723

Scott Braaten from the SKIVT-L list is only a Met student at UVM, but he knows his stuff, and is getting better all the time.

I thought I tried, but couldn't. Any info appreciated.

KingM
11-22-2005, 05:28 PM
We just got a snow report from MRG, which is apropos of this thread:

Happy Thanksgiving skiers. We are very thankful that it is currently dumping profusely! We are expecting a storm total of 4-6" or more and potentially much, much more on Turkey Day. Our plan is to open as soon as Mother Nature allows which could be as early as this weekend if some of these weather forecasts truly pan out. The snowline has been creeping down the mountain all day. We have received 2" at the base already today (at 5 PM) with between 4-5" up top. Snow is expected throughout the night tonight. The winds have picked up and visibility is limited. Another storm is expected on Thanksgiving Day which has the potential for snow measured in feet. We will need a fair amount of snow, and the right kind, to be able to open as the mountain is very wet and there is no base underneath . At this point the plan is to make a call on opening for the wee kend on Friday. Stay tuned for the latest.

Sounds quite promising as does the weather ongoing from this weekend. I know the weather can change on a dime around here, but it looks like we might avoid the crappy early-season weather we had all the way into January last year.

Strat
11-23-2005, 07:20 AM
They're claiming 18"... can it be?

Too bad I can't go up and find out...

Stupid Thansgiving in New York...

Lostone
11-23-2005, 07:31 AM
My guess is most of that is in the woods. Still, I was definately in snow yesterday, but the way down was very sparse.

I can see grass sticking thru on Snowball, so significant snow didn't come down very far, but there was a lot more on the top.

I'll have more info, later. :D

11-23-2005, 09:44 AM
I'll have more info, later. :D
Pics, man. We want pics!

Lostone
11-23-2005, 09:38 PM
Normally, I never carry my camera on powder days.

Today i made an exception because I was a touch late and figured the powder was going to be gone before I got there. (What is a little late? The lift opened at 9:00 and I was on it by 9:05. By the time I got on the Summit lift, people on the first chairs were just coming into view, on their way down, but I knew there was a lot of traffic in front of me, because while I was on my way into the lodge to boot up, I could see a large number of people in line at the GMX. :cry: )

I don't carry my camera because the chance of falling greatly improves in powder. I carried my camera. I had my first fall of the season. I never got one shot, because there was so much blowing snow that I never saw a shot I wanted.

Not sure if I posted this in the Zone, but for a small sample of pix from last season, Jim's Scenery Pix (http://groups.msn.com/JimsSceneryPix/20042005season.msnw).


.

Tin Woodsman
11-24-2005, 11:34 PM
Can someone tell me definitely how much the mountain got today and last night?

Lostone
11-24-2005, 11:51 PM
Definately? no.

I can say that there was significant snow. FIS and Lower Rim Run were open. Problem is that it has been very windy, so finding someplace to measure the snow is tough.

Snow, where found was soft and silky.

More on my report in the Sugarbush thread in the Alpine Zone. :wink:

KingM
11-25-2005, 08:18 AM
I wonder how badly the warm days after the weekend will hurt us. Tuesday is showing a high of 61 and a low of 41 with rain. :(

ALLSKIING
11-25-2005, 08:26 AM
I wonder how badly the warm days after the weekend will hurt us. Tuesday is showing a high of 61 and a low of 41 with rain. :(
Its only a 3 day warm up...From what I saw I don't think the rain will be very heavy and then the cold is back. All in all I don't think it be to bad.

Lostone
11-25-2005, 02:11 PM
I'm voting for your forecast... But I'm voting for it in second place. First place goes to one of the patrolers that I rode up with on the Summit lift. She said that it might be cool enough at altitude that it might stay all snow on top. :D

If not, yours is an ok fallback forecast. :wink: