The weather scopes, if you will, have been empty for months now with respect to any substantial storms in the forecast. This morning I am happy to report that I think our best chance yet has come into the fuzzy long range outlook. One of the weather models is projecting what appears to be a substantial coastal storm to roll up the coast on Tues/Wed 26th/27th. Granted, its a long 10 days away, but this is the best hope I have seen this season for a large storm. Hopefully in the coming days as the model updates itself the storm will stay with us.

Day 9 -tuesday 12/26 evening
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9e/gfsx_pres_9e.html

Day 10 -wednesday 12/27 morning
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_pres_10d.html

10 day Loop
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_pres_loop.html

It looks to me like this coming week will be have good temps for snowmaking. Current forecast has lows in the teens and highs below freezing for the whole week (except monday with a high of 34). Keeping my fingers crossed for the big holiday week.

Man I hope so. I just got home after checking things out at Mt. Ellen today. My son went up (he has a college pass) but I wasn't going to do the downloading thing again. Windy and warm. People are starting to look strung out and worried.

What about if we sacrifice a keg of beer to Ullr? Or at least a 6-pack.

Did your son tell you... skiing was really pretty good?

Exterminator was sketchy, in spots, but then again... it is Exterminator.

FIS, I didn't bother with. Way too much fog up there, for me, but the cruisers were fun. They were busy, at the line, but the trails were ok. I used the singles' line and almost did laps.

I spoke to a number of people up there, and all had fun. That doesn't mean nobody did not have fun, just that of all the people I spoke to, did.

He said that what was open was pretty decent. It was actually my choice to take a pass on it, after downloading last weekend. I didn't go to the LP side today. Maybe I should have since Saturday it was open to the bottom.

Boston weatherman says better days are comin'. Keep the faith!

HO HO HO


Monday, Dec 25 Snow much of the time Low: 17 °F High: 32 °F


From http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipcode=05673&metric=0

I might even put Christmas lights on the plow truck.

Quote:

Maybe I should have since Saturday it was open to the bottom.

Parts of the bottom were quite sketchy, but the snow, over all was really nice. This is not rumor. I was there.

I skied South on Saturday and North on Sunday. Neither were great skiing, but great skiing, to me, involves powder. Both were quite good.

Plowboy wrote:

HO HO HO Monday, Dec 25 Snow much of the time Low: 17 °F High: 32 °F From http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipcode=05673&metric=0 I might even put Christmas lights on the plow truck.

I am digging that optimistic forecast Plowboy! Maybe the christmas lights might bring good luck & deep snow.

its not great, but at least we can say Monday has potential.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT MDL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA THURS NGT
INTO FRIDAY MORN...AS WX SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
06Z GFS RUN A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z GFS RUN BRINGING FRNTL PRECIP NE
INTO CWA. FEATURE FOR THIS SYSTEM PUSHING THRU AREA INTO SAT MORN
WILL BE REMAINING CD AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS PRECIP WORKS
IN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION MIX OF RW/SW AT ONSET TIL BULK OF PRECIP
OVERTAKES THE CWA. THEN ALL RAIN. LATEST RUNS STILL HINT AT COASTAL
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG FRNT...WHICH WILL DRAG MAIN
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE AWAY FROM CWA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
ENTIRE AREA BASED ON MDLS SHIFTING/TIMING. LAND PORTION OF SFC
SYSTEM WILL MV NE INTO EASTERN CANADA INTO SUNDAY MORN...SO WILL
KEEP WRAP-AROUND -SW IN FOR MOST AREAS...TAPERING OFF OVERNGT.
LATEST RUN A BIT FASTER CLRING SYSTEM OUT. REGION GETS QUICK
REPRIEVE SUN AFTERNOON/NGT...WITH A MORE STRONGER STORM WORKING OUT
OF THE SE TOWARDS THE CWA FOR XMAS. HIGH QPF POTENTIAL FOR
MONDAY...W/ POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. MDLS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING ON
POSITION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT AS TO ALL
RAIN...A MIX...OR ALL SNOW IN SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE AS A MIX OF
RW/SW.

White again

Kids, what I tell you about that storm for this Tuesday? Not sure how potent it will be, but its looking more like a snow event now.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.289583&rlon=-72.594583&tlat=44.400417&blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95

10 day weather model is also projecting a follow up storm for Saturday Dec 30th. looks like the coldest air of the season could come in behind the Dec 30th storm.

precip
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_pres_loop.html

surface weather
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_1000_loop.html

random_ski_guy wrote:

Kids, what I tell you about that storm for this Tuesday? Not sure how potent it will be, but its looking more like a snow event now. 10 day weather model is also projecting a follow up storm for Saturday Dec 30th. looks like the coldest air of the season could come in behind the Dec 30th

Amen brother!

If any of you had seen the latest Euro model, you would be holding off on the optimism.

Big snowstorm.....

...for Michigan and the Ohio Valley.



The American GFS model is the only one still indicating a more Eastward solution. We'll see.

really Tin, which storm are we on the raining side for; tuesday or saturday?

random_ski_guy wrote:

really Tin, which storm are we on the raining side for; tuesday or saturday?

the Euro says both, as of now. Not sure what to believe b/c the latest AFD out of BTV is a lot more hopeful for Tuesday and the balance of the week. Oh what to believe?????

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING...PARTICULARLY
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON VCNTY OF NRN BAJA CA. MEANWHILE...140+KT
300MB JET AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS HEADED EWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST THIS AFTN...WITH POSSIBLE UPPER PHASING OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY 12/25 VCNTY MID/LWR MS RIVER VLY. CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...EVEN A FEW LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR SERN FA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING A PHASED/HIGH-AMPLITUDE H5 TROUGH ALONG THE MS
RIVER VLY AT 00/26TH...WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR CAROLINAS BY 00Z/26TH.
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS ON THE 26TH...WITH THE LOW REACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z/26TH. BELIEVE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE IMPORTANT SFC LOW TRACK DIFFERENCES ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE FORECAST AREA
RECEIVES SNOW VERSUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SFC LOW EAST OF BOSTON /984MB/ AT
00Z WED. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TAKES THE LOW TO NEAR KMPV /978MB/ AT
00Z WED...SUGGESTING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP EVENT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY. SO...WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
TRACK/SNOW AMTS...IT APPEARS A MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS EVENT AND QPF
EPISODE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BECAUSE WE HAVE WINTER WX CONCERNS IN THE NEAR-TERM...WILL NOT ISSUE
AN SPS...BUT WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL ADVERSE
TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY ON DEC 26TH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION.

THEREAFTER...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER A
MILD CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW ELEVATION HIGHS IN THE MID 30S FOR
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS
THRU MID-LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING
AREA-WIDE WED-FRI.