The NWS just issued a Winter Storm Warning for Tuesday night with 6-10" predicted for the MRV. Looks like a repeat on Thurs. My brother-in-law told me about it for here as he is feverishly getting his plow trucks ready. check www.noaa.org

That would be fantastic.

I assume even if we got the highest possible of 20" from the two storms that they would still not open Lincoln Peak until Dec. 10? More importantly, how much of Mt. Ellen would they open with that much snow? Most of it all at once, or would they stick with their plan of slow, measured increases in the number of trails?

KingM wrote:

That would be fantastic. I assume even if we got the highest possible of 20" from the two storms that they would still not open Lincoln Peak until Dec. 10? More importantly, how much of Mt. Ellen would they open with that much snow? Most of it all at once, or would they stick with their plan of slow, measured increases in the number of trails?

Some of the locals would have a better handle on this, but a general guess is that they'd open as much as possible as quickly as possible, within the bounds of safety and mountain resources to do so. At the very least, expect FIS, Panorama, Rim Run, Upper/Lower Elbow, Lookin Good, Cruiser, Which Way, maybe Northway, and Straight Shot. Depending on how things break, you might also see one or two of Cliffs/Hammerhead, Tumbler, but I doubt it. Tumbler is usually a little exposed, so likely not. Same with Exterminator. Bravo is too rocky at the headwall. Encore too obscure. The Inverness area has a lousy sun exposure, though you never know if the snow really does pile up.

At this point in time I agree with Tin as they are currently making snow on FIS, Rim Run and Panorama. Before they even think about LP they want to be open top to bottom at ME. If they do get a bunch of snow this week then all bets are off and it will be interesting if they maybe will start making snow at LP earlier than planned.

A sure sign that they are preparing to open LP is to see snowmaking on Jester, Organgrinder and Deathspout. It wasn't too many years ago when the Bush got a huge storm 2 weeks before Thanksgiving, opened up 67 trails, then closed on Thanksgiving due to rain and warm temps following the storm. Course that was the previous owners who always opened the season with Jester, Organgrinder and Downspout on LP.

Anyway, whatever scenerio works out it's great to see winter finally arrive in the valley assuming the weather forcasters are correct. We all know they are never wrong.

Tin Woodsman wrote:

KingM wrote: That would be fantastic. I assume even if we got the highest possible of 20" from the two storms that they would still not open Lincoln Peak until Dec. 10? More importantly, how much of Mt. Ellen would they open with that much snow? Most of it all at once, or would they stick with their plan of slow, measured increases in the number of trails? Some of the locals would have a better handle on this, but a general guess is that they'd open as much as possible as quickly as possible, within the bounds of safety and mountain resources to do so. At the very least, expect FIS, Panorama, Rim Run, Upper/Lower Elbow, Lookin Good, Cruiser, Which Way, maybe Northway, and Straight Shot. Depending on how things break, you might also see one or two of Cliffs/Hammerhead, Tumbler, but I doubt it. Tumbler is usually a little exposed, so likely not. Same with Exterminator. Bravo is too rocky at the headwall. Encore too obscure. The Inverness area has a lousy sun exposure, though you never know if the snow really does pile up.

You mean Northstar, not Northway... opening that would send you to Inverness...

Couple points:

I've hear Winn state that even if there was a dump, South's opening date is set and will not change. Pretty sure it is a matter that the money coming in can't pay for all the people to run two mountains.

If you saw it today, you'd have to agree. It was a fantastic day, weatherwise. There was only one real trail dawn, and there were probably ten times it was a little crowded. By opening more terrain at North, there will be no additional cost, but to open South?

The other point is that last year they were very aggressive about opening terrain. If it was close, they put up a thin cover sign and dropped the rope. I think that worked quite well. There were a few complaints, but if you went past the sign, what did you expect? At the same time, lots of people skied those trails.

I'd be surprised if they didn't do that again.

And as to the thread title, weather.com's hourly says the change from mix to snow will be around 15:00.


I'll be watching from my 1600' perch and maybe making a call or two to see when it changes over. Worse comes to worse... lift opening time, Wecnesday.

In my experience, the best forecast you'll find for the mountains is right here:

http://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0511c&L=skivt-l&D=1&O=D&F=&S=&X=094F5B351CFD492FDB&Y=mbbernstein%40yahoo.com&P=40723

Scott Braaten from the SKIVT-L list is only a Met student at UVM, but he knows his stuff, and is getting better all the time.

Tin Woodsman wrote:

In my experience, the best forecast you'll find for the mountains is right here: http://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0511c&L=skivt-l&D=1&O=D&F=&S=&X=094F5B351CFD492FDB&Y=mbbernstein%40yahoo.com&P=40723 Scott Braaten from the SKIVT-L list is only a Met student at UVM, but he knows his stuff, and is getting better all the time.

Well hope they're right, according to this forcast we can expect up to 16" north of Killington.

It started snowing as I opened the drapes around 7:30. OK... Supposed to switch between snow and rain.

1.5 hours... still snow.

Going to eat a big breakfast. The problem today is being too anxious to get out. Better skiing will be later, today.


Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy!

* Goes to see what age he listed in the How Old Are You poll *

Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy !




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Lostone wrote:

It started snowing as I opened the drapes around 7:30. OK... Supposed to switch between snow and rain. 1.5 hours... still snow. Going to eat a big breakfast. The problem today is being too anxious to get out. Better skiing will be later, today. Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy! * Goes to see what age he listed in the How Old Are You poll * Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy ! .

If you don't have one, we need to get you a digital camera so you can report back with pics. How close are you to the mountain, Lost?

I have 2 digital cameras, and carry one of them almost all the time... except on powder days.

Powder makes you stupid.

Chances of falling greatly increase with real powder.

That said, the snow changed over to rain again. Temperature has gained 3°.

As for where I am, I'm essentially at the bottom of South. I live in Sugarbush Village. Great place to live... once they open South.


.

Roses are red
Smurfs are blue
Gonna get some snow
I know it's true

Lostone wrote:

I have 2 digital cameras, and carry one of them almost all the time... except on powder days. Powder makes you stupid. Chances of falling greatly increase with real powder. That said, the snow changed over to rain again. Temperature has gained 3°. As for where I am, I'm essentially at the bottom of South. I live in Sugarbush Village. Great place to live... once they open South. .

What do you think the chances of snow at higher elevations are?

Well... I haven't unpacked any of my ski stuff.